The Golden State Warriors have proved time and again that they are unable to win on the road. The playoff team with the worst road record in the NBA during the regular season lost another one on the road, bringing their record to 2-3 in these playoffs. The Warriors in particular struggle against the Lakers on the road, as the Athletic's Marcus Thompson wrote:
The Warriors can’t seem to shoot in this building. In their last 15 trips here, they have made 40 percent or more of their 3s just thrice. Eight times, they’ve made fewer than a third. The problem with that? The Warriors need to make 3s to offset the Lakers’ dominance inside and massive advantage in free throws.
In Game 3, in addition to being overwhelmed by Lakers free throws, the Warriors were outshot from deep by the home team. The Lakers shot 15-of-31 from 3. The Warriors shot 13-of-44 from deep. Those numbers won’t add up to victory in this series.
Let's get into the big takeaways and my bets for Warriors vs. Lakers Game 4.
Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers
 10 p.m. ET TNT  |
Spread: Lakers -3 | Total: 227.5  |
At Chase Center, the Warriors made 42 total 3s in two games. But Crypto.com Arena is historically a desert for the Splash Brothers. Curry is a career 33% shooter from 3 there.
In just three of his 21 career road games against the Lakers has he made at least five 3-pointers. The one time he made more than five came in 2013. He had 47 points that April night, when Kobe Bryant tore his Achilles. Curry was 9-for-15 from 3 in that game — the 15th was a heave at the buzzer from about 90 feet that nearly banked in for the win.
Now, this goes up against the fact that the Warriors have won at least one road game in 28 straight series. They tend to find answers. By the same token, Anthony Davis tends to swing wildly game to game, as does Klay Thompson. It's what makes this entire series difficult to cap. It feels very random between two unreliable teams.
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Long Shots
I think this series is going long. I like the odds on it to go seven games. The Warriors are unlikely to lose in less than six, but I also don't trust them to win three straight.
As far as adjustments go, the Lakers moved Anthony Davis to JaMychal Green, forcing the Warriors to involve him in pick-and-roll if they wanted to put Davis in it, which won't work.
The Warriors don't have another great shooter to go to. If they did, they could pull JaMychal Green and put that player in. It might be worth starting Kevon Looney and benching Draymond Green (as the Warriors did for a brief time in the Kings series at Draymond's suggestion) to allow four shooters around a more physical rebounder in Looney.
The Warriors can try and push pace with Jordan Poole, though he's struggled — to put in mildly — in these playoffs.
One thing the Warriors haven't done enough of is put pressure on D'Angelo Russell defensively. Russell has been allowed space offensively and not punished on the defensive end. The Warriors have to find ways to hurt him, and if that means playing worse defenders, that may have to be the move.
The Warriors can't win this series with defense; their size and athleticism is in the young guys who don't have the sharpness and the older players who have said sharpness don't have the legs.
They'll be able to get up for a game, and then slide backwards. It's one reason I think this series is going long.
As for the Lakers; they will probably not get a +20 advantage in free throws every game from here on out, and they need it. Their offense is still poor. With AD's waffling and the limited number of options offensively, they will need a monster effort from LeBron James. If you like the Lakers in this game, bet the over for James' points prop (26.5).
How I'm Betting Warriors vs. Lakers Game 4
Under 227.5: I'm riding the under again. I've just listed all the ways that the Warriors can adapt in Game 4 on the offensive end with more weapons. But those weapons may simply not hit even if Kerr goes to them, which he may not.
With Davis unlikely to have two great games, and the Lakers unlikely to get the free throw boost twice, there's a lot of ways the Lakers will struggle to score points.
Pick: Under 227.5 |
Warriors Moneyline (+135, Bet365): The Warriors are inconsistent and struggling to find their best selves … but it's in there. And in a must-win spot, I'll trust them to find it. I'm also betting the series to go seven games, which is +150 at both BetMGM and DraftKings.
