The NBA Wednesday slate is dynamite for bettors.
Lots of games, lots of good spots, and we’ve reached the point in the season where there are clear signs of teams but the market hasn’t moved so far off preseason priors that there isn’t any value.
Here’s a look at what I’m betting Wednesday, and remember, you can track all my picks in the Action Network app.
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
 7:30 p.m. ET NBA TV  |
The Bet: Celtics -9  |
If my power rating said to play Miami, I’d stay away because I don’t want to try and get in front of the green freight train that is the Celtics.
But since my read on this game on full-season numbers is so far beyond this, I don’t even want to say it (it’s 17, the Celtics are breaking my model), I have no problem backing Boston.
The Celtics are 13-4 against the spread vs. teams who are not the Chicago Bulls or Cleveland Cavaliers this season. Their ATS differential is +2.2, even as favorites in every game so far.
Miami will be without Jimmy Butler for this game. Tyler Herro, Gabe Vincent and Duncan Robinson are among the seven players who are questionable and could miss this one.
I don’t have any way to get this to single digits, even with it being a conference finals rematch. I like this up to -10.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. New York Knicks
 7:30 p.m. ET NBA League Pass  |
The Bet: Knicks +6  |
The Bucks are a little overstated in the market. Milwaukee is 12-7 ATS this season but just 3-3 on the road, straight up and ATS. I make this closer to Knicks +1 at home, based on Milwaukee’s severely limited halfcourt offense.
The Knicks are on the second night of a back-to-back in Madison Square Garden after beating the Detroit Pistons on the road Tuesday night and the trends point to some value in this situation, according to data from Bet Labs.
Since the start of the 2020-21 season, their first under head coach Tom Thibodeau, the Knicks are actually 20-9 ATS (69%) on the second night of a back-to-back.
They have been the second-most profitable team in this spot over that span behind the IndianaPacers. New York is also 7-3 ATS at home in those spots, and 11-6 ATS (65%) coming off a win.
Washington Wizards vs. Brooklyn Nets
 7:30 p.m. ET NBA League Pass  |
The Bet: Nets -5.5 |
Brooklyn is dealing with the lingering perception that they’re worse than they actually are. They rank top-15 in halfcourt offense and defense, with transition defense (18th) as their only weak point.
The Wizards have a tactical advantage here; the Nets struggle with versatile big men, and Kristaps Porzingis has been phenomenal and is coming off a 41-point performance.
But under Wes Unseld Jr., the Wizards are 18-27 straight up and 16-29 (35.6%) ATS coming off a win.
An underrated Nets team laying 5.5 when I make it 8.5, vs. the Wizards coming off a big win. It’s time to buy the Nets, distractions and all.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
 8 p.m. ET NBA League Pass  |
The Bet: Under 237.5  |
I make this 229.5, so it’s a number play. The Thunder have allowed their opponent to go over their team total in 14 of their 21 games and have gone over their own team total in 13 games.
However, the average total for those games was 223.7. The average total for games where the Spurs went over their team total was 230, seven full points below this.
The number’s just too high.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is questionable for this game. If he plays, I still think the number is too high. If he misses the game, the total likely goes down.
This is just more likely to be sloppy than clean, and the number is exaggerated even with OKC’s season trends.
Houston Rockets vs. Denver Nuggets
 9 p.m. ET NBA League Pass  |
The Bet: Nuggets -11.5 |
You can watch this game through our NBA BetStream presented by DraftKings Sportsbook on the NBA App, where we'll be providing live commentary from a betting perspective including same game parlays and live in-game prop betting.
This is a duplex set, where two teams are facing each other inside of a week. But it’s also a baseball style duplex set, which means both games are in the same location (Denver).
Teams in the specific situation the Nuggets are in — favored in both matchups at home, faced a team twice in three days and won the first game — are an astonishing 40-26-1 ATS (61%) in the second matchup.
Denver screwed around in the first matchup, allowed the Rockets to shoot the lights out in the first half, and still covered.
I think Houston’s outmatched; I’ll lay the points.
