After 2,460 NBA regular season games, six NBA Play-In Tournament games and 81 NBA Playoff games … we've reached the NBA Finals.
Our NBA analysts haven't played a single minute in those games, but they've been locked in for the past eight months on the betting front with the same level of focus as both the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors. And they are bringing that same intensity into the championship round and Game 1 of this exciting series.
For Game 1, our experts see value in multiple areas, including the full game spread, team totals, player props and more. Check out their best bets for Celtics vs. Warriors Game 1.
NBA Odds & Picks
Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors
Munaf Manji: It's no secret that the Warriors offense has been lethal in the postseason so far. They have been especially potent offensively at home in the postseason and are a perfect 9-0 at Chase Center. In that span they are averaging 120.8 points per 100 possessions at home, per NBA Advanced Stats, more than 10 points better than their Offensive Rating on the road.
Role players tend to play better at home and that couldn’t be more for the Warriors' supporting cast. Jordan Poole, Andrew Wiggins and even Klay Thompson are slightly scoring more points at home than the road.
Furthermore, the Warriors have gone over this line of 107.5 in seven of the nine home games. and have topped 107.5 points in all three Game 1s on their home floor. I don't expect that rend to change in Game 1.
Matt Moore: Let's talk trends: Steve Kerr is 14-7 in the first half at home in Game 1s. He's easily the most profitable coach in this situation since the 2004-05 playoffs, according to Bet Labs.
The Warriors create a shock to the system with their style of play, which is entirely different from what the Celtics have faced defensively.
With the rest and experience advantage, I think the odds are high enough for the Celtics to come out flat. At just -1.5 I'm willing to take the Warriors.
Matt Moore: Matchups, matchups, matchups.
The Celtics will look to switch as much as possible against the Warriors. In doing so, they'll likely have to go small and leave their back line exposed the same way that the Dallas Mavericks did in the Western Conference finals.
Wiggins is the primary recipient of passes off cuts and kick-outs. If you're going to leave one of the Warriors unattended, it's likely Wiggins, given Draymond Green's passing acumen. Wiggins has averaged seven rebounds per game this postseason in fewer minutes than he should play in Game 1.
Again, with the Celtics switching, there's chances for wings to cover ground for rebounds. I like him to go over this combo prop.
Austin Wang: The narratives and trends strongly favor the Golden State Warriors in Game 1. However, I am targeting a value bet for a game script I expect to play out.
The Warriors had six days off after eliminating the Dallas Mavericks last Thursday. While they may be well-rested, I see them coming out rusty to start the game. A team that relies so much on their shooting may tend to get off to a struggling start.
The Celtics just finished a grueling seven-game series, but I like the confidence and momentum to carry over early in Game 1. The Celtics are a league-best 33-17 straight up in the first half on the road. They are 7-2 straight up in the first half on the road in the playoffs.
In addition, the Celtics have performed well against the Warriors in recent season, going 7-3 straight up and 7-2-1 against the spread in their matchups since the 2017-18 season. I am counting on their elite defense and size advantage to give the Warriors trouble early.
As the fatigue sets in for the Celtics, I expect Curry and the Warriors to be warmed up and blow the game wide open in the third quarter, as they have done all season long. Want to spice things up? I see incredible value on the Celtics to win first half | Warriors to win the game at +575 at WynnBet.
Brandon Anderson: I'm leaning Celtics for the series, but I love this Game 1 spot for the Warriors.
First, it's a rough schedule spot for Boston. Since 1988, teams coming off a Game 7 victory are just 32-52 (38%) straight up in the following Game 1. That includes 4-8 for teams that play Game 1 on the road and 2-5 for teams in the Finals.
Boston did get a couple days rest, but had to fly across the country after two long, grueling, seven-game series, and it's not like these were days off with all the media craze of the Finals. Golden State has a rest and health advantage, and they have the experience of having done all this before.
The Warriors have also been dominant early in series. Since the first title run in 2015, the Warriors are an incredible 21-2 in Game 1s. Golden State runs such a unique offense with all its motion and cutting, its constant movement and back cuts, that it tends to stun the opponent early and take some time to adjust.
That makes the Warriors look invincible early, especially when they're at home where they're so dominant. Golden State is 9-2 ATS as a home single-digit favorite in Game 1s, covering by 7.6 PPG.
This is not about where I think the series will go. This is about all the Game 1 trends. And don't forget, Boston has lost Game 1 each of the last two series despite advancing. it's going to take some time for the Celtics defense to adjust.
I love this spot for the Warriors. I'm playing multiple units to win and cover.
