The Miami Heat enter Game 6 of the Eastern Conference finals with their backs against the wall facing elimination while the Boston Celtics are one win away from their first NBA Finals appearance since 2010.
The series has been grueling for both teams, but the Celtics have the momentum after back-to-back wins and an opportunity to close things out at home. Our NBA experts are betting today's matchup in three ways, including the Game 6 over/under and player props.
Read on for their in-depth analysis and betting picks for Heat vs. Celtics Game 6.
NBA Odds & Picks
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
Raheem Palmer: After back-to-back 20 point losses, the Miami Heat appear to be dead as fried chicken in their Eastern Conference finals matchup against the Boston Celtics.
If you remove Game 1, the Heat are scoring just 1.01 points per possession and these games as a whole have been far from track meets with oddsmakers struggling to set these totals low enough. The totals for these games have gone from 208 in Game 3 to 206 in Game 4, 203.5 in Game 5 and now 201 in Game 6, which coincides with both teams nursing injuries.
Jayson Tatum, Marcus Smart and Robert Williams are clearly playing through injuries, but the Heat can barely field a team with much of their roster feeling the effects of some grueling playoff series. Tyler Herro, Miami’s third leading scorer, has missed the past two games with a groin injury while Kyle Lowry is playing through a hamstring injury.
Jimmy Butler has also dealt with his own injury woes and over the past three games — he’s scored just nine points per game on 25% shooting. The Heat are tasked with trying to score against a Celtics defense which had the best Defensive Rating in the league this season, holding opposing teams to just 106 points per 100 possessions.
It’s unlikely that improves here, however if the Heat have any hope for winning Game 6, it’s that their defense has been able to keep them in games. During the first half of Game 5, they held the Celtics to just 37 points.
I can see the rock fight between these two teams continuing here, so I’ll take the 1H under 102.5 as both teams should play each other tough in a pivotal Game 6.
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
Brandon Anderson: Jimmy Butler is not right.
It's pretty obvious if you're watching the games that Butler just is not himself right now. Maybe it's that knee that flared up in Game 3 and caused Butler to miss the second half.
Perhaps it's related to the injury that caused him to miss the first-round closeout game. Maybe it's just all that Thibs wear and tear adding up. Whatever it is, Butler is a warrior who will play through and fight all the way, but he just does not look himself.
Butler was a machine early in the series when the Heat were more rested. He had 41 points in Game 1, getting to the line 18 times, and he was in attack mode early and often as a scorer. He had 29 more in Game 2, looking for his shot and making 12 and 11 field goals in those two games.
Game 3 was where the injury issues arose though. Butler scored only eight in that one, then six, and he was poor again in Game 5 with just 13 points on 4-of-18 shots, remarkably still his best in the last three games. Butler now has only 27 points his last three games combined, and he's a disastrous 10-of-40 from the field (25%). The shots don't look comfortable, he still doesn't like the 3, and he's really looking to get his teammates going more than anything.
Butler had fewer total points, field goals, and free throw attempts his last three games combined than he did each of the first two games, before the injury. This line has not adjusted nearly enough, and that's why I'm playing the alternate under too. If you followed on the app, I posted a late under-19.5 play at +330 that hit with ease. He's gone under this alternate line in three straight too.
I love Jimmy Butler, and the man will fight through anything, but we have no choice but to fade the ailing Butler we're seeing on the court right now.
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
Munaf Manji: Over the past few games, we are seeing what we expected in this series — tough, hard-nose defense and low-scoring games. The Celtics rank second in Defensive Efficiency this postseason and they have the fifth-best defense inside the pain. Al Horford has excelled on the defensive end for the Celtics.
He has played in all but one game in this series (health and safety protocols) and has recorded at least two blocks in three out of those four games. He is averaging 2.5 blocks per game against the Heat in this series. Horford’s minutes have been consistent as well throughout the playoffs, especially in this series because of his defensive versatility.
There is always some concern that Robert Williams can take away from Horford’s production, but Horford has been playing a consistent 37 minutes per game for the Celtics while Williams is averaging 23.5 minutes.
I like him to go over this line especially at plus money.
