We have a ridiculous amount of games to play on tonight's slate and I've got my eye on four matchups based on my betting model, so let's get right to it.
Here’s what you’ll find in my model: projected team totals, projected combined totals, projected spreads for the matchup and the implied odds for the moneyline.
Note: My projections won't be updated in real-time throughout the day, but Action's PRO Projections tool is dynamic and will reflect the latest injury and lineup news.
NBA Projections Model
NBA Odds & Picks
Check out my analysis for tonight's 13-game slate.
Phoenix Suns at Cleveland Cavaliers
During the Phoenix Suns' 13 game winning streak they're holding opposing teams to 100.1 points per 100 possessions.
Tonight they face a Cleveland Cavaliers team that ranks 29th in Offensive Rating (99.8) during the last two weeks and will be without Evan Mobley and Colin Sexton and could be missing Darius Garland.
Despite the porous offense, the Cavs are still fourth in Defensive Rating over the past two weeks (103.2) and with the Cavs playing at the sixth-slowest pace in the league, it's tough to imagine this being a high scoring game.
I'll play the under 210.5 at BetMGM with my model making this game 207.
Los Angeles Lakers at IndianaPacers
The Lakers welcome the return of LeBron James from a one-game suspension and his return should help an offense that is scoring 113.9 points per 100 possessions with him on the court vs 102.6 with him off (+11.3). Of course the biggest issue for the Lakers is their defense, which is giving up 115.1 points per 100 possessions over the past two weeks, ranking 25th in the NBA.
With the Lakers playing the second-fastest Pace in the league (102.45) we could see a ton of possessions. The Pacers haven't been great offensively but they thrive in many of the areas the Lakers struggle defensively, particularly from 3-point line and the rim.
This total has taken a wild ride, opening at 217 and getting as high as 219 before being bet back down. I agree with the former move as my model makes this game 221. With Lakers games being a league leading 11-8 to the over, I see no reason to stop here. I'll play the over.
Miami Heat at MinnesotaTimberwolves
The Miami Heat have covered the number in all three games in which they've played back-to-back games including wins against the Grizzlies and Wizards and a 109-112 loss to the Clippers in a game they were short handed in the absence of Jimmy Butler.
My model makes the Heat a favorite and it feels like the market is overpricing the impact of this team playing on a back-to-back. Nonetheless, Miami's ability to play well on zero days rest should continue here against the Minnesota Timberwolves who come four straight wins against the Kings, Spurs, Grizzlies and Pelicans who aren't exactly a murderers row of NBA teams.
This is a step up in class for the Timberwolves who are 6-2 against teams below .500 and 2-7 against teams above .500. Although the Heat struggled with the Pistons last night, they still came away with an eight-point win in a game in which they shot just 31% from behind the arc.
The Heat are fourth in Defensive Rating (104.4) in their non garbage time minutes according to Cleaning the Glass and should have no problems limiting a Timberwolves offense which is just 24th in the half court, scoring 86.8 points per possession.
I'll back the Heat as I feel like the market has overcorrected in this spot.
Atlanta Hawks at San Antonio Spurs
Many will look at this and view it as a trap and based on my model it appears that the Hawks are overvalued in this spot on the road against the Spurs. The Hawks are coming off five straight wins while the Spurs are coming off five straight losses.
It almost seems too easy, right?
Looking deeper, it's tough to imagine the Spurs keeping up with the Hawks offensively as they're scoring 119.1 points per 100 possessions over the last two weeks. The Spurs on the other hand are downright abysmal offensively, scoring 105.3 in their non garbage time minutes according to Cleaning The Glass.
The Spurs are stuck in the stone ages offensively, ranking dead last in three point field goal frequency (28.9%) and 22nd in three point field goal percentage (33.5%). They'll have to matchup with Trae Young and a Hawks offense which is eighth in 3-point shooting percentage (37.1%).
There will be times to fade this Hawks team with their power rating, but this isn't the spot. I'll take them -3.5 at BetMGM.
