The early part of the NBA season has been inconsistent in many areas except one: totals. Our own Matt Moore wrote about trends around over/unders through this early stretch and three of the bets I'm playing from my model are on totals.
Here’s what you’ll find in my model: projected team totals, projected combined totals, projected spreads for the matchup and the implied odds for the moneyline.
Note: My projections won't be updated in real-time throughout the day, but Action's PRO Projections tool is dynamic and will reflect the latest injury and lineup news.
I’ll also be highlighting some of the slate’s most intriguing matchups with in-depth, game-level analysis that goes beyond the numbers.
NBA Projections Model
NBA Odds & Picks
Although projections give us a solid baseline for what a number should be, it's also important to handicap each matchup for things that the numbers can't tell us.
Check out my analysis for tonight's 11-game slate.
New YorkKnicks vs. IndianaPacers
We're due for an eventual market correction as unders are hitting at a 61.3% rate this season and this is a good place to attack with an over.
Despite the steam pushing this number down from the opener of 218 to where it currently sits at 217, I personally don't agree with it. The Knicks have the league's second-ranked Offensive Rating, scoring 115.9 points per 100 possessions in their non garbage time minutes.
Unlike last season, the Knicks don't have a top five defense. When you add offensive minded players like Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier to the mix, you improve offensively but defensively you aren't the same team and that's certainly the case for the 2021-22 Knicks who are just 20th in Defensive Rating (109.5) in their non garbage time minutes.
The Knicks should find a ton of success in this matchup facing an Indiana Pacers team which is 22nd in Defensive Rating (110.8). The Pacers are allowing opponents to shoot the sixth-highest percentage of 3-point attempts (38.0%), an area where the Knicks thrive, shooting the eighth-highest frequency of 3-point attempts (41.7%) and leading the league in 3-point field goal percentage (41.8%).
The Pacers have a top-10 offense of their own with an Offensive Rating of (109.4) and we can expect this unit to play even better with the return of Malcolm Brogdon.
Overall, these are two teams with top five offenses and two teams that rank in the top 10 in half court offense with the Knicks ranking second and the Pacers ranking eighth. With this total at 217, I think there's some value on the over.
Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic
This is another line that is getting steamed down, but I think this is an overcorrection based on a string of unders this season. The Magic have the league's worst Defensive Rating, allowing opposing teams to score 114.7 points per 100 possessions this season. They're dead last in transition defense, allowing a whopping 147.0 points per 100 possessions in transition, so the Celtics should find plenty of opportunities to score here.
While the Celtics are just 21st in Offensive Rating this season (106.1), I'm having trouble believing that maintains and we should see an improvement from this team going forward, particularly after Marcus Smart's comments about Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown not passing the ball.
Tatum in particular has had a rough start to this season, shooting a career low 39.5% from the field and just 27.1% from behind the arc. A player as good as Tatum won't play this poorly forever and facing a bad Magic defense could be the perfect elixir for his struggles.
The one thing I don't see changing for this Celtics team is their defense, which is 19th this season, allowing 109.5 points per 100 possessions in their non garbage time minutes. While the Magic struggle to score consistently, they do shoot the fifth-highest frequency of 3-point field goals (42.7%) and make the seventh-highest percentage (37.6%), facing a Celtics team which is 22nd in opponent 3-point field goal percentage (36.2%).
Personally, I think this total has been adjusted too much so I'll play the over with my model making this total 227.
Chicago Bulls vs. Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers will be without two rotation players with Ben Simmons still absent from the team and Tobias Harris out due to health and safety protocols. While the 76ers were able to overcome the loss of Harris against the Portland Trail Blazers, they'll certainly miss his presence against Zach LaVine and DeMar Derozan who have led the Bulls to a 6-1 record.
I personally make this game a PK so at +2 I believe there's some value on the Bulls in a matchup. The 76ers are first in scoring in the half court but they're playing a Bulls team which is third in defending in the half court.
The 76ers also have the second-highest field goal percentage at the rim (70.8%) while the Bulls allow the second-lowest field goal percentage (58.0%) at the rim. What gives?
The Bulls should be able to exploit a 76ers defense that ranks 10th in opponent field goal percentage from behind the arc (36.1%). The Bulls are shooting the third highest percentage from behind the arc (39.1%) this season and are seventh in Offensive Rating (111.7) and sixth in Defensive Rating (101.6) this season so this is one of the better teams in the NBA this season and a huge step up in class from the Blazers.
I think PK is the right line so I'll be on the Bulls in this spot.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Golden State Warriors
This is the highest total on the board at a time when NBA unders are hitting consistently. I'm undeterred however as we have two teams which are top 5 in pace with the Golden State Warriors playing the third fastest pace (102.39) and the Charlotte Hornets playing the fifth fastest pace (101.92).
Given the amount of possessions, we're looking at a track meet offensively as this is a Hornets team with LaMelo Ball that's scoring 115.6 points per 100 possessions, third among NBA teams.
As good as the Hornets are offensively, they're equally as bad defensively where they're 27th in Defensive rating allowing 112.5 points per 100 possessions in their non garbage time minutes. The Hornets are allowing opposing teams to shoot a league worst 71.6% at the rim this season while also giving up the ninth-highest frequency of opponent three point field goals (40.7%).
With Stephen Curry on the floor the last thing you want to do is give up a high percentage of three point field goals and shots at the rim when you're trapping him and giving allowing his teammates to go 4-on-3. Nonetheless, the Warriors should have no problems scoring as they rank fifth in 3-point field goal percentage (38.2%).
With the Warriors and Hornets ranking third and fourth in half court offense in addition to this likely being fast paced game, I like this game to go over the total. My model makes this game 229 so at 226 I see some value this game at a time where oddsmakers are shading numbers to the under.
