We have some quality games on the schedule across the NBA tonight and I'm looking to my betting model to lock in some value on the slate.
Here’s what you’ll find in my model: projected team totals, projected combined totals, projected spreads for the matchup and the implied odds for the moneyline.
Note: My projections won't be updated in real-time throughout the day, but Action's PRO Projections tool is dynamic and will reflect the latest injury and lineup news.
I’ll also be highlighting some of the slate’s most intriguing matchups with in-depth, game-level analysis that goes beyond the numbers.
NBA Projections Model
NBA Odds & Picks
Although projections give us a solid baseline for what a number should be, it's also important to handicap each matchup for things that the numbers can't tell us.
Check out my analysis for tonight's nine-game slate.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. New York Knicks
The New York Knicks have been on a complete tailspin, losing six of their last eight games, however, they come off a 116-96 win over the Sacramento Kings on Monday night. The Memphis Grizzlies will be looking to rebound from their 122-119 loss to the Philadelphia 76ers in overtime on Monday night.
Dillon Brooks is still out for this matchup and Steven Adams is questionable so this Grizzlies team isn't at full strength here. Although my model makes this game 211, I think we could see more scoring here as the market puts this game at 217. Although we have seen some steam to the under pushing this from 219.5 to it's current number,
With Ja Morant at point guard, the Grizzlies are one of the best transition teams in the league, ranking fourth in transition points per possession (3.7) and they'll face a Knicks team which is 24th (3.0). In addition the Knicks perimeter defense should have trouble with Morant, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson as they're allowing the third highest frequency of three point attempt.
The Grizzlies don't take a ton of threes but they'll be there in this matchup and I expect them to regress after shooting just 6-of-30 (20%) from behind the arc against the 76ers. Defensively the Grizzlies have been solid but they had trouble consistently getting stops against the 76ers without Joel Embiid and I think we could see something similar here.
I'm not big on fading my model, but I'll play the over with 216.5 at BetMGM as the best line at the time of writing.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Dallas Mavericks and the Oklahoma City Thunder are two of the best under teams in the league. This season the Mavericks are hitting unders at the highest rate (34-17-1) while the Thunder are hitting them at the third-highest rate (29-19-1).
Digging into the numbers, it's not a surprise they go under the total as often as they do. The Mavericks are 28th in Pace (95.8) and 28th in Offensive length of possession (15.4 seconds) per Dunks And Threes. Luka Doncic has the tendency to hold onto the ball and dribble the air out of possessions, which leads to a slower paced game. In addition, the Mavericks are one of the best defensive teams in the league ranking fifth in Defensive Rating, allowing just 107.6 points per 100 possessions.
The Thunder on the other hand are 16th in pace (98.3) however they are dead last in Offensive Rating, scoring just 102.1 points per 100 possessions. This team struggles to score efficiently and often sees their point total die a slow death. I'm expecting that to happen here as well.
I'll play the under 206.5 at FanDuel with my model making this game 198.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Los Angeles Lakers
My model makes this game close to Lakers -3 right in line with the market, but this feels like a prime bounce back spot for a team returning from six-game road trip that has lost three straight and four out of its last five.
Those Lakers losses have coincided with the absence of LeBron James (knee) in addition to a brutal three games in four night stretch against the 76ers, Hornets and Hawks. Fortunately for the Lakers they come into this matchup with the Portland Trail Blazers rested with two days off.
The Blazers haven't been in good form recently either, losers of two straight, including Monday's 98-81 loss against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Now playing their third game in four nights without Nassir Little, Larry Nance Jr or Cody Zeller, the Blazers could be in trouble here.
Without James in the lineup, Russell Westbrook will be the Lakers' primary ball handler and it's a role he should thrive in. While much criticism can be made about Westbrook's play this season, the past five games have arguably been the best stretch of this season for him as he's averaging 22.8 points on 54.9% shooting along with 6.6 assists to just 3.8 turnovers.
The Lakers rank eighth in points per possession in transition (3.1) facing a tired Blazers team that ranks 23rd in points per possession in transition (2.9). In addition, the Blazers are dead last in half court defense and are in the bottom six in defending every area of the floor. I'm expecting an offensive surge from the Lakers who should be able to score efficiently in transition and in the half court with Westbrook and Anthony Davis.
I'll lay the 3.5 with the Lakers in what should be a good spot for them to end their three game skid.
