Thirteen games! With a busy Wednesday night ahead in the NBA, this is the perfect kind of slate to dig into my betting model and find value on matchups that might get overlooked on such a huge schedule.
Here’s what you’ll find in my model: projected team totals, projected combined totals, projected spreads for the matchup and the implied odds for the moneyline.
Note: My projections won't be updated in real-time throughout the day, but Action's PRO Projections tool is dynamic and will reflect the latest injury and lineup news.
I’ll also be highlighting some of the slate’s most intriguing matchups with in-depth, game-level analysis that goes beyond the numbers.
NBA Projections Model
NBA Odds & Picks
Although projections give us a solid baseline for what a number should be, it's also important to handicap each matchup for things that the numbers can't tell us.
Check out my analysis for tonight's 13-game slate.
Milwaukee Bucks at New YorkKnicks
The New York Knicks have been downright dominant in the second quarter of games this season. This season in the second quarter, they're 8-2-1 on the moneyline, have the league's best Net Rating (20.8) and rank second in Offensive Rating, scoring 117.1 points per 100 possessions.
The Knicks feast on opposing benches and are holding teams to 95 points per 100 possessions in the second quarter, which ranks second in the NBA. This is an angle I've been capitalizing on all season and tonight presents another good betting opportunity.
The Bucks haven't exactly been the dominant regular season team we're used to seeing in the Mike Budenholzer era. They're dealing with an injuries to Brook Lopez (back) and Donte DiVincenzo and the absence of Khris middleton due to health and safety protocols. While Bobby Portis has returned, this is still a thin bench that doesn't match up well with the Knicks.
The Knicks do a solid job at protecting the paint, allowing opposing teams to shoot 57.7% at the rim, second among NBA teams. This is an area where the Bucks thrive, however, Giannis Antetokounmpo does sit much of the second quarter.
While the perimeter defense of the Knicks will be tested — they're allowing opposing teams to shoot 36.0% from behind the arc — I trust the Knicks bench to outscore the Bucks bench here.
On Friday, I tweeted out a play on the Knicks 2Q in their game against the Bucks and the Knicks outscored the Bucks 37-25 on their way to a 113-98 victory.
Super late add.
Knicks…..live bet them on the money line and with the points for the 2Q.
— raheem palmer (@djrtodaizza) November 5, 2021
My model likes the Knicks for the game, but I think the price is fair at this point. With the Bucks playing on the road in a back-to-back, I'd love to bet the Knicks, but at this current number, I don't like it.
Isolating the Bucks bench against the Knicks bench, particularly in a home game for the Knicks feels like the best play in this spot.
Toronto Raptors at Boston Celtics
The Celtics will play this game without Jaylen Brown who is averaging 25.6 points, 6.1 rebounds and 2.5 assists this season while shooting 49.3% from the field and 39.7% from behind the arc. The loss of Brown for the Celtics is tremendous as they're scoring just 103.1 points per 100 possessions with him off the floor with the Celtics defense feeling the biggest impact (-13.9).
With Pascal Siakam back on the floor for the Raptors, this big wing lineup that caused the Celtics issues in their opening week matchup game should present similar issues here. The Raptors won five games in a row before dropping back-to-back games against the Cleveland Cavaliers and Brooklyn Nets, but I can't help but think this line would be priced differently had the Raptors not blown a six-point fourth quarter lead with two minutes to go on Friday night.
My model makes this game a PK so at +2, I think there's some value on the Raptors on the road. The Celtics have struggled at home as of late, going 0-3 straight up this season and 2-7 SU their past nine games at the Garden dating back to last season. They've covered just two out of their last 10 home games and this feels like a spot to continue fading them.
Dallas Mavericks at Chicago Bulls
This line has been steamed up from 212 to where it currently sits at 215, but I have trouble agreeing with this line move. The Bulls play the slowest pace in the NBA at just 97.60 possessions per game, and the Mavericks are middle of the pack in regards to pace.
My model makes this game 210, and these aren't teams that have been lighting up the scoreboard either. The Bulls are 7-4 to the under and the Mavericks are 9-1-1 to the under.
The Mavericks in particular rank 21st in Offensive Rating (106.3) while facing a Bulls team that is fourth in Defensive Rating (103.4). The Bulls have been solid at limiting 3-point attempts, an area where the Mavericks are shooting 41.9% of their field goal attempts. They're also sixth in opponent field goal percentage at the rim, holding teams to 60.2%.
While the Mavericks aren't very good defensively, there is some concern for this Bulls offense, which is just 16th in pts/play (92.7) in the half court and doesn't have much scoring off the bench with the absence of Colby White and Patrick Williams.
Overall, with this line getting steamed up, I think this is a good spot to play the under.
Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs
This is another total that has been steamed up but I'm not buying it either. The Spurs are one of the the worst offenses in the league, scoring 104.4 points per 100 possessions in their non garbage time minutes.
Digging into their half court numbers is even more discouraging — the Spurs are scoring 89.5 points per 100 possession in the half court. They'll be missing Jakob Poeltl for this matchup, which should hurt their offense even more as they are +3.3 points better with him on the court vs. off the court.
The Kings defense is still soft — 20th in Defensive Rating (109.0) — but over the past two weeks they rank 14th (107.4) and given the struggles of this Spurs offense, I think the Kings can hold their opponent to a respectable number. The Spurs rank 27th in 3-point shooting percentage (31.9%) and don't take a ton of 3s, which is exactly what you want for an under.
On the other side of the ball, the Kings could be missing Tyrese Haliburton and while they do have the 11th-best Offensive Rating (109.4) they are just 21st in half court offense scoring just 90.0 points per 100 possessions and they'll be playing Spurs team that ranks eighth in Defensive Rating (105.1).
The Kings thrive in transition where they're first in pts/possession, but the Spurs are first in transition defense and should be able to limit their points at the rim. That said, with this total getting steamed up, I'll trust that the oddsmakers made a good line from jump street and play the under.
