Another big night of basketball in the association brings another round of projections for my NBA model.
Here’s what you’ll find in the model: projected team totals, projected combined totals, projected spreads for the matchup and the implied odds for the moneyline.
I’ll be highlighting some of the slate’s most intriguing matchups with in-depth, game-level analysis that goes beyond the numbers.
Note: My projections won't be updated in real-time throughout the day, but Action's PRO Projections tool is dynamic and will reflect the latest injury and lineup news.
NBA Projections Model
NBA Odds & Picks
Although projections give us a solid baseline for what a number should be, it's also important to handicap each matchup for things that the numbers can't tell us.
Check out my analysis for tonight's slate.
Golden State Warriors vs. Miami Heat
If you listened to our Wednesday Workshop podcast with myself and my colleague Matt Moore, you'll know that I gave this under out at 214.5, but there's still some value here at 213.5. I also gave out the Heat at -5.5 and 6.5 is the limit in which I'm willing to lay here.
The Golden State Warriors are a sinking ship and they're playing their third game in four nights against the Heat, who are coming off of a disappointing 113-106 loss to the Philadelphia 76ers without Joel Embiid and James Harden.
This is an ideal bounce back spot against a Warriors team who lost to the Orlando Magic and will be missing Stephen Curry.
The Warriors are just 2-6 without Curry this season with an Offensive Rating of just 108.5. In comparison, with Curry on the floor, the Warriors are scoring 115.8 points per 100 possessions. They'll be facing a Heat team which is fourth in Defensive Rating (108.2) in their non-garbage time minutes according to Cleaning the Glass. Nonetheless, I'm not expecting an offensive improvement from the Warriors here.
While the Warriors do struggle offensively without Curry, they still have one of the best defenses in the league, holding opposing teams to just 107.1 points per 100 possessions, good for third among NBA teams. The Heat are just 13th in half-court offensive points per 100 possessions (96.6), so they're not a team that can run away and hide by putting up big offensive numbers.
The Heat also don't play fast paced games, ranking 27th in Pace (96.1) and 22nd in Offensive Length of Possession (15 seconds) while also ranking dead last in Defensive Length of Possession (15 second), a testament to making opposing offense use more of the shot clock and take tough shot.
Golden State also doesn't play a fast pace at all, ranking 15th in Pace (98.14) and 15th in Offensive Length of Possession (14.5 seconds). All that said, this feels like a great spot for the under and I'd take the Heat if I could get them at -6.5 or better.
Brooklyn Nets vs. Memphis Grizzlies
This is a game in which I'm throwing my own personal numbers out.
My post-All-Star break model makes the Grizzlies 2.3-point favorites over the Nets in this matchup, but that incorporates Ja Morant in the line as well as both home and road games for the Nets who have a significantly better power rating on the road as Kyrie Irving is ineligible for home games due to New York City's vaccine mandate.
When you remove Morant from the line and factor in the combination of Durant and Irving, it's pretty clear the Nets should be significant favorites in this game. It's no surprise that the Nets opened as three-point favorites before this was bet down to two. Still, I think this number is short.
The Nets are 4-2 on the road since the All-Star Break with the second-best Net Rating (13.4) behind a league best 126.2 Offensive Rating and a Defensive Rating of 112.8, which is 13th among NBA teams.
It's important to note that Irving was ineligible to play in Toronto during the Nets' 108-109 March 1st loss against the Raptors and Durant also didn't feature. Overall, the Nets are 4-1 since the All-Star break with Durant and Irving in the lineup. Their only loss came against the Boston Celtics who have gone 27-7 in their last 34 games and have been the best team in the league since January 6th.
With Durant and Irving on the floor, the Nets are outscoring teams by +18.3 points per 100 possessions with an Offensive Rating of 128.7 and a Defensive Rating of 110.4. The Grizzlies are 20th in Defensive Rating (123.2) over the past two weeks against top-10 offenses and they'll be facing one here in the Nets.
Given the Grizzlies struggle to score in the half-court where they rank 23rd in half-court points per 100 possessions (92.5), it's tough to imagine them keeping pace with a Nets team who is desperate to avoid the play-in tournament.
I'll lay the two points with the Nets as the combination of Durant and Irving should be too much to overcome without Morant.
Utah Jazz vs. Boston Celtics
My model makes this game 213 so this feels like a good spot for the under between two good defensive teams. The Utah Jazz have seen their totals go under in nine out of their last 10 games and now take on the Boston Celtics who are first in Defensive Rating (106.7) in their non-garbage time minutes.
The Celtics are holding opposing teams to the lowest eFG% in the league this season (50.2%) and the Jazz have their work cut out for them with the absence of Bojan Bogdanovic (calf) and the struggles of Mike Conley who has been averaging just 10.9 points on 34.1% shooting in his last eight games.
Boston has been exploding offensively as of late, scoring 126, 124, 132 in its last three games. The Celtics now face a Jazz defense which is holding teams to 94.8 points per 100 possessions over the past two weeks.
The Celtics performed well against top-10 defenses where they're scoring 106.6 point per 100 possessions, 22nd among NBA teams. With the Jazz ranking 22nd in pace (97.4) and 24th in Offensive Length of Possession (15.1 seconds) and the Celtics ranking 24th in Pace (96.7) and 25th in Offensive Length of Possession (15.1 seconds) per Dunks and Threes, I'll play this game to go under.
