Now, the end is near, so I face the final curtain.
The NBA season is nearly over, which means this will be the last Wednesday slate of the regular season. So, for the final time, let's jump into my betting model.
Here’s what you’ll find in my model: projected team totals, projected combined totals, projected spreads for the matchup and the implied odds for the moneyline.
I’ll also be highlighting some of the slate’s most intriguing matchups with in-depth, game-level analysis that goes beyond the numbers.
NBA Projections Model
NBA Odds & Picks
Although projections give us a solid baseline for what a number should be, it's also important to handicap each matchup for things that the numbers can't tell us.
Check out my analysis for tonight's six-game slate.
Note: My projections won't be updated in real-time throughout the day, but Action's PRO Projections tool is dynamic and will reflect the latest injury and lineup news.
Brooklyn Nets vs. New York Knicks
Although the New York City vaccine mandate has been lifted, allowing Kyrie Irving to play home games, the Brooklyn Nets have been struggling. They've failed to cover in five straight games and lost straight up in three of their past five.
They look to complete the season sweep of the New York Knicks who are dealing with a multitude of injuries as they'll be missing Julius Randle in addition to Cam Reddish, Derrick Rose and Nerlens Noel who have been out for quite some time. Quentin Grimes and Miles McBride are also questionable for this matchup, so the Knicks could be shorthanded in this spot.
Although the Knicks have played the Nets close this season, they've yet to face the duo of Kevin Durant and Irving and they could be in for a rude awakening facing this Nets offense that is scoring 124.5 points per 100 possessions with those two on the floor. They're also outscoring teams by +11.3 points per 100 possessions as well. Despite with their struggles on the defensive end of the floor, the Nets appear to have an edge here.
The Knicks rank 18th in defensive transition points per 100 possessions (2.9) and they'll be facing a Nets team that ranks top-10 (3.1) in generating points in transition. The Knicks have lost two out of their past three games, giving up 1.28 and 1.29 points per possession against the Charlotte Hornets and Cleveland Cavaliers and I'm expecting the Nets to perform similarly in a game they have to win if they want home court in the Play-In Tournament.
Although my model makes this game a PK, I'll lay the 4.5 points with the Nets.
Washington Wizards vs. Atlanta Hawks
Although they've played to two straight unders, the Atlanta Hawks have seen their totals go over in four out of their past six games. They take on the Washington Wizards who have played to the over in four straight games and five out of their last six.
Neither one of these two teams are fielding elite defenses with the Wizards ranking 27th in Defensive Rating (117.9) since the All-Star break and the Hawks ranking 16th (115.0). Both teams are playing on a back-to-back, so I'm expecting even less defense in this spot.
Trae Young leads a Hawks offense that ranks third in Offensive Rating (115.9) and is scoring 121.0 points per 100 possessions over the past two weeks. Although neither of these teams play a fast pace, the offensive efficiency from both teams should push this game over the total. With my model making this game 236, I'll play the over.
Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Clippers
The Phoenix Suns have wrapped up the best record in the Western Conference and come off a dominant 121-110 victory over the Los Angeles Lakers to nab a franchise-best 63rd win this season.
With the postseason less than a week away, it's tough to imagine the Suns playing their starters for this matchup. This feels like a good situational spot to take the Los Angeles Clippers who have won three out of their last four games since the return of Paul George.
Over this four-game stretch the Clippers are scoring 131.4 points per 100 possessions and while some of that skewed due to them putting up 153 points against a Bucks team which was resting their starters, it's clear this isn't the same Clippers team we've seen much of the year which has struggled to score.
They'll be looking to build momentum as they head into the postseason and with the Clippers boasting a top 10 defense (110.5) I think we could see a lower scoring game. I'll back the the Clippers and the under.
