The opening game of the Western Conference Finals between the Mavericks and Timberwolves tips off tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on TNT.
Our "BUCKETS" podcast has NBA odds, picks and Western Conference Finals Game 1 predictions.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:30 p.m. | Mavericks ML (+150) |
| 8:30 p.m. | Over 207 |
| 8:30 p.m. | Luka Doncic Over 28.5 Points |
Mavericks ML (+150) at Timberwolves
8:30 p.m. ET ⋅ TNT
So, we know the stats about teams coming off of a Game 7.
Teams coming off of a Game 7 that face a team that didn't go to seven games are 16-30-1 against the spread.
Of course, Minnesota falls into that category after the Western Conference semis against the Nuggets.
We also know, according to the Matt Mitchell rule of the NBA Playoffs, if you're betting an underdog on the spread, take the moneyline with it.
I think the Wolves are tired, and I think the defense is tired. I'm not sure if they'll be able to lock in at the same level as the last time we saw them.
Pick: Mavericks ML (+150)
Over 207
8:30 p.m. ET ⋅ TNT
The over play is assuming both defenses are a tad bit tired.
I don't play a lot of totals generally, but I know in the small history that the over has been nearly invincible in this spot. In the 13 games I was able to find of a Game 1 favorite playing at home after a seven-game series, the over is 12-1.
That's an incredible trend that I can't deny.
I do apologize for the size of the sample, but I think there's something to it.
Pick: Over 207
Luka Doncic Over 28.5 Points
8:30 p.m. ET ⋅ TNT
By Jim Turvey
Luka Doncic is not a guy I've been high on historically, but I think this is a great matchup for him.
The rumors are that Minnesota will use Jaden McDaniels on him, which I don't like at all for the Wolves.
Luka is heavier and he uses his weight advantage better than anyone in the league. I think he'll put the Wolves' defense in scramble mode consistently and that will open up the paint with Karl-Anthony Towns guarding out on the perimeter.
Luka has looked really good in the last two games, and I expect him to score at will tonight.
