On Wednesday, there are two Game 5s on the slate — Heat vs. Celtics and Mavericks vs. Clippers.
Our Buckets Podcast crew has cooked up some NBA best bets, so let's dig in below.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | Celtics -13.5 |
| 7:30 p.m. | Heat +13.5 |
| 7:30 p.m. | Jayson Tatum Series Assist Leader |
  | 10:00 p.m. | Mavericks -2.5 |
| 10:00 p.m. | James Harden Over 20.5 Points |
| 10:00 p.m. | Daniel Gafford Under 8.5 Points+Assists |
Celtics -13.5 vs. Heat
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ TNT
The Celtics' wins against the Heat have come by 20, 20 and 14 points.
I think that last win should've been a 20+ point win as well, but the Heat went on a run towards the end of the game to make it look a little better. I still have yet to see Boston click offensively, but when it beats Miami, it's just blowing the Heat out.
Unless Duncan Robinson or Tyler Herro go off for six-plus 3s, then I don't see the Heat covering this number.
I'm going to back the better and healthier team. I think all the negative news around the Kristaps Porzingis injury makes me want to take this bet more.
Pick: Celtics -13.5
Heat +13.5 at Celtics
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ TNT
By Matt Moore
This is a trend play for me.
Teams in Game 5 that are favored by more than 12.5 points since 2003 are 1-6-1 against the spread. This is a lot of points to cover in the playoffs. There's a gap between 10 and 12.5, but underdogs still cover more often than not.
I think Boston wins this game and advances, but this is a lot of points. The Celtics have played well and responded from Game 2 with two straight wins.
This is just too many points for me.
Pick: Heat +13.5
Jayson Tatum Series Assist Leader vs. Heat
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ TNT
Jayson Tatum is currently at -120.
I feel even more confident in this prop than I did before Game 4. Tyler Herro had a huge outlier outing in Game 2 when he had 14 assists and Tatum only had three. Outside of Game 2, Tatum has 21 assists and Herro has 10.
They're currently tied at 24 apiece and unless you think Boston wants to run back the game plan from Game 2, then take this bet for a guy who should be a much higher favorite.
Pick: Jayson Tatum Series Assist Leader vs. Heat
Mavericks -2.5 at Clippers
10:00 p.m. ET ⋅ TNT
This cap comes down to two simple things.
James Harden and Paul George shot a total of 15 3s in Game 4 and made 11 of them. I expect some serious regression from the Clippers in that department.
On the other side, the Mavericks and Luka Doncic shot 1-of-9 from behind the arc.
The second thing is: don't go down by 30 points. They were able to claw all the way back and nearly pull out a victory. If they can keep the deficit within 10 points at halftime, I think they have a great chance to steal this one on the road.
Ty Lue has made it a point for the Clippers to start fast and build a lead, so if the Mavericks can just hang with them in the first couple of frames, they should be in a great position to win.
Pick: Mavs -2.5
James Harden Over 20.5 Points vs. Mavericks
10:00 p.m. ET ⋅ TNT
Now that Kawhi Leonard is out, I suspect you may have to take a 21.5 in the market, which is fine.
In two games with Leonard on the floor, Harden scored 21 and 22 on 13 and 14 shots, respectively. In the games he missed, Harden scored 28 and 33 on 17 shots.
Your other stars are going to do more stuff when one superstar is out, and that's what Harden does with Leonard out.
I would like this bet better if I was on the Clippers side here, but this is a weirdly-low number since he's hit this prop in all four games thus far.
Pick: James Harden Over 20.5 Points
Daniel Gafford Under 8.5 Points+Assists at Clippers
10:00 p.m. ET ⋅ TNT
By Matt Moore
I don't want to get rebounds involved because Daniel Gafford can get three offensive rebounds in one possession.
He's gone under this number in all four games in this series. His output has been three, one, eight and seven.
I don't think this is a series for Gafford. He can't handle Ivica Zubac's size and strength and has essentially been played off the floor.
This is a Dereck Lively II series because Gafford can't guard the pick-and-roll.
