It's Monday and we've got a slate of pretty gross games to bet on for our NBA parlay. Seven of the 10 teams in action are either on a third-in-four-nights or third-in-four-nights back-to-back. But to me, that just means it's time to cook up an equally gross parlay on DraftKings.
For those new to our show, I'll take three same-game parlays, and we'll put them together in a progressive parlay across the same-game parlays.
These plays are for fun and should not be full-betting unit plays. If you are looking to build a bankroll, this is not the way to do it. But if you want to tail some fun plays, we've got them.
We'll start with one parlay and then build on it from there. Let's start with the grossest game on the board: Nets at Pelicans.
Parlay Leg 1: Nets vs. Pelicans
The Pelicans are a recovery ward in a hospital at this point. Everybody who's out right now: Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy, Herb Jones, Dejounte Murray, CJ McCollum and Jordan Hawkins.
That's not just six rotation players, instead six important, good rotation players. As a result, the Nets, with a preseason win total of 22.5, are 1.5-point favorites tonight in New Orleans.
After Williamson's hamstring injury, I made this game Nets -6.5 based on in-season data, which is just sad, but the Nets have actually been surprisingly decent and are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) on the road. This will be their first time as a road favorite this season. Given the state of the Pelicans' wings and center positions, the Nets are actually probably the more … talented team?
So, we'll lay the 1.5.
The meat of this is Pelicans under 105.5 points. The Pelicans' offense goes from 116.6 points per 100 possessions with Zion on the floor to 102.3 with him off the floor. The Pelicans team total under is 7-3 this season, the Nets' opponent team total is 7-3 to the under. The Nets have held opponents to 2.3 points lower than their team total this season.
So, we're playing a parlay for things to get worse for the Pelicans, losing to the Nets and the Pelicans to struggle to score.
Nets vs. Pelicans Parlay: Nets -1.5 & Pelicans Team Total Under 104.5 (+174)
Parlay Leg 2: Clippers vs. Thunder
The Chet Holmgren news is a huge bummer. He was OKC's only big with Isaiah Hartenstein and Jaylin Williams out. He's a monster shot blocker and three-level scorer. It's a massive blow to OKC's chances at securing the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, and it's going to be rocky for them until Hartenstein gets back and after.
However, in a one-game environment in the aftermath of the injury, coming off a loss at home with the added emotional boost of rallying after losing Holmgren … well, I don't want any part of the side, even with the Clippers catching 7.5 points.
But we can play the matchup. Ivica Zubac is averaging 16.4 points and 12.7 rebounds for the season and now is playing a team that literally does not have a center outside of Ousmane Dieng. So, he's averaging this number. I like his over for points and rebounds, as well, at 29.5 but we'll keep it simple and just go for a double-double here.
I want to play the under as a contrarian play. This opened 217.5 and 91% of the money and tickets are on the over according to the Action App PRO Money percentages. Here's the thing: Without Holmgren, the Thunder defense is four points worse … and only giving up 101.3 points per 100 possessions. That's still crazy low.
Zubac will likely go nuts. Derrick Jones Jr. might get a few extra points. The rest of the scorers who might attack for the Clippers are wings and the Thunder still have a phalanx of elite wing defenders. The Clippers aren't going to force feed Zubac in the post. They should! But they won't.
So, I'll go back the other way and go under 218.5 or whatever the number winds up at by tipoff.
Clippers vs. Thunder Parlay: Under 218.5 & Ivica Zubac Double-Double (+142)
Where Our Parlay Stands: +553
Parlay Leg 3: Cavaliers vs. Bulls
This is where we're going to get aggressive: Bulls moneyline.
I know, the Cavaliers are undefeated. I know, the Bulls aren't good.
This is the NBA. This is just the kind of game that catches an undefeated team. A road division game vs. a crappy opponent after you've had an amazing weekend. The Cavaliers stomped the Warriors in ways that aren't allowed to be broadcast in some countries on Friday, then turned around and trailed for most of Saturday's game vs. the Nets before pulling out a win.
Meanwhile, this is a pure shot variance game. The Cavaliers are 17th in 3-point rate, but first in percentage at 42% on the season, an insane number ripe for regression. The Bulls are seventh in 3-point rate and 10th in percentage. The Cavs are seventh in 3-point attempts allowed and 25th in percentage allowed. The Bulls are a surprisingly decent 13th in opponent 3-point rate and third in opponent 3-point percentage.
There's a script where the Cavaliers go cold and the Bulls make a ton of shots and you just have to shrug and accept the streak is over. They're going to lose sometime, and this is a great letdown spot.
I think this is the game.
But also, the Cavs are 7-3 on the first-half moneyline, the Bulls are 3-7. The Bulls are also 7-3 against the fourth-quarter spread this season, according to EVAnalytics.com.
So, we'll go Cavs first-half moneyline and Bulls to win the whole thing.
Cavaliers vs. Bulls Parlay: Cavs 1H ML, Bills Full Game ML (+850)
NBA Parlay +6107
I'm calling this the "please only play pizza money or less on this" parlay.
- Nets vs. Pelicans: Nets -1.5 & Pelicans Team Total Under 104.5 (+174)
- Clippers vs. Thunder: Under 218.5 & Ivica Zubac Double-Double (+142)
- Cavaliers vs. Bills: Cavs 1H ML & Bulls Full Game ML (+850)
