Saturday's NBA slate is absolutely stacked, with a total of 14 matchups scheduled for today, with the first tipoff set for 12 p.m. ET between the Pacers and Spurs in Paris, and the final game set for 10:30 p.m. ET in Los Angeles between the Bucks and Clippers.
Read below for my NBA picks and predictions for Saturday, January 25.
Pacers vs. Spurs
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 232.5 -112o / -108u | -130 |
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 232.5 -112o / -108u | +110 |
The Prodigal Alien returns home as the Spurs and Pacers finish their international set in Paris. The Spurs stomped Indiana in the first game. Is it time to back the Pacers to settle down the upstarts, or will Victor Wembanyama run wild again on Indiana?
I make this game pick'em, juiced Pacers with Spurs +0.5. The Spurs trounced the Pacers in the opener of the Paris set, and while certainly beating a team twice in three days is difficult, this is a different situation.
This is a home environment for the Spurs due to the French support of their countryman. San Antonio is 9-5 straight up with a +1.1 spread differential against bottom-10 defenses. This is a good matchup for them because Indiana's defense helps their weakest unit, and the Spurs' defense in Wemby's minutes is good enough to deter the offense.
A sneaky noticeable thing about the Pacers? They don't actually shoot that many threes. They're actually 27th in 3-point rate. That's good for a team built the way the Spurs are with athletes and not as many shooters.
The Pacers are a bottom-five team in both points in the paint and fastbreak points allowed, pace-adjusted. The two biggest contributors outside of Wemby in those areas are Jeremy Sochan and Stephon Castle, both of whom had quiet nights in the first game.
So I’ll put Spurs ML, Castle 15+ points and assists, Sochan over 9.5 points, and for fun because it’s a Spurs game in Paris, Wemby 3+ blocks and 2+ three-pointers made for a solid +700 correlated payout in a SGP.
We’re all in on the Spurs and the French Alien in Paris. Bonne chance!
Pacers vs. Spurs Same Game Parlay
- Spurs Moneyline
- Victor Wembanyama 3+ Blocks
- Stephon Castle 15+ Points + Assists
- Jeremy Sochan 10+ Points
- Victor Wembanyama 2+ Three-Pointers Made
Parlay Payout: +700
Celtics vs. Mavericks
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 222.5 -108o / -112u | -310 |
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 222.5 -108o / -112u | +250 |
The reeling Boston Celtics try to right their ship after a rough road trip saw them go to overtime with a severely depleted Clippers team and then get waxed by the Lakers Thursday night. Now they take on the equally shorthanded Mavericks as they try and get things back on track.
Will Jayson Tatum shine? Or will this be more of a slugfest for Boston against a hampered Mavs team just trying to stay above water in the brutal Western Conference?
The under in Celtics road games is 62.7% this season. The under in Mavericks home games is 63.6%.
Boston has the No.2 defense on the road, while Dallas has the 8th best defense at home.
I make this game just around 220.5.
In the 16 games without both Luka Doncic and Dereck Lively since the start of last season, the under is 10-6.
Sometimes, when a team is struggling offensively, the superstar puts up more points because the defense is closing off easy passing lanes and forcing them to score more.
Jayson Tatum is largely an exception. In the 65 regular-season unders since the start of last season, Tatum has only gone over 26.5 points 40 percent of the time.
So I’ll parlay the under with Jayson Tatum under 26.5 points, and because the Celtics are oftentimes undersized at the rim, I’ll take Daniel Gafford alt-over 15+ points and rebounds.
My best bet is the under 222.5, but this SGP is a nice fit as well for what should be a pretty gross game.
Best Bet: Under 222.5 (-108)
Celtics vs. Mavericks Same Game Parlay
- Under 222.5
- Jayson Tatum Under 26.5 Points
- Daniel Gafford 15+ Points & Rebounds
Parlay Payout: +224
