The biggest NBA regular season game that doesn't involve LeBron James or Stephen Curry in probably eight years goes down on Wednesday night on ESPN as the 31-4 Cleveland Cavaliers take on the 30-5 Oklahoma City Thunder.
Per ESPN, this is just the second time we’ve ever had two teams win 30 of their first 35 games, and this is the first time they've faced off against each other. It’s also only the third time in NBA history that two teams with winning streaks of 10 or more games will face off.
This could very well be a NBA Finals preview and if you want to bet it, I've broken down two same-game parlays — based upon who you think wins between the Cavaliers (-2) and Thunder (+126 moneyline).
When Oklahoma City Has the Ball
Obviously, MVP-favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the head of the snake for the Thunder. Stopping Gilgeous-Alexander from getting to his spots is nearly impossible if you switch or play drop coverage off pick and roll. Oklahoma City's screeners are great. I'm not just referring to Isaiah Hartenstein, all of OKC's guards and wings also set great screens.
The Cavs, thankfully, play up to the level of the screen more than most. You'll see Jarrett Allen coming to the 3-point line to get Gilgeous-Alexander to hesitate while his primary defender gets over the screen, then Allen will retreat to cover the rolling big (Hartenstein). The Cavaliers don't blitz as much as they show and then recover, though if Gilgeous-Alexander tries to get the corner, Allen will switch with him all the way to the rim and do so pretty ably.
A big key will be how Gilgeous-Alexander is able to reject the screen — that's the biggest counter to that coverage. The Thunder hunt matchups more than almost any team in the league, so if he's able to force a switch from Darius Garland onto him before attacking in the 1-5 pick and roll, things could open up. The Cavs, of course, will do everything to prevent that.
In some of the Thunder's biggest games this season — including the NBA Cup Final, which wasn't a regular season game, and Sunday's showdown vs. Boston which they won — they've had shooting issues. Lu Dort made three huge 3s late in the win over Boston and will be another significant target here.
The Cavs allow the eighth-fewest catch-and-shoot opportunities per game. Their containment and rotations are good enough to where they can prevent getting into rotation situations, a huge credit to the Cavaliers' bigs.
They are middle of the pack in allowed efficiency, so the Thunder will have to get buckets when they get opportunities.
It'll be interesting to see if the Cavs get unconventional with their matchups. With Oklahoma City running four wings and Hartenstein, do the Cavaliers attach Mobley as the primary defender on Gilgeous-Alexander? Or go with Dean Wade, an underrated defender with size at 6-foot-9?
Jalen Williams is having a rough go lately and that likely won't improve tonight unless the Thunder decide to put Donovan Mitchell on him. Williams will likely get opportunities, but with the Cavs' interior rim protection, it'll be tough sledding. (The Cavs are No.1 in opponent rim field goal percentage, per DunksAndThrees.)
When Cleveland Has the Ball
The best offense in the NBA vs. the best defense in the NBA. The No.2 pick and roll offense vs. the No.1 pick and roll defense.
Buckle up.
Oklahoma City's ability to switch, help and recover is second to none. They don't just give up the switch and deal with it, they attack. Got a smaller defender on you? Prepare for your handle to be peppered with swipes and deflections. Got a big on you? Prepare to have all that space taken away. Those disruptions allow Oklahoma City's help defenders to swoop in without leaving too much space to recover to shooters.
However, the Cavaliers are magnificent at finding space between those small gaps and making teams pay. That starts with Darius Garland, not Donovan Mitchell.
Mitchell is going to be in the Dorture Chamber. With Lu Dort as the primary defender, via NBA.com's admittedly wonky tracking data, Mitchell shot 6-of-18 from the field. The Cavs will work to try and separate him not just with single screens, but stagger screens. However, Dort's also phenomenal at trailing through and picking up ballhandlers on the other side without allowing switches.
Meanwhile, Garland will face second-year defender Cason Wallace, who's not Alex Caruso (out with injury), but also isn't far off.
The Thunder's objective is to force those guys to take and make tough shots against great defenders. If Garland and Mitchell can find ways to break the perimeter defense and either score consistently or generate enough attack to force help, now the Thunder are in rotation, and that's step one.
The Cavaliers are maybe the best team this season at reversing the ball by playing to one side and then swinging back to the other. They have such great spacing, passing and shooting that they come up with constantly great looks.
If the Cavs get those looks, the Thunder are in trouble. The Cavs are such a great 3-point team that they can outpace OKC's offense, even at a lower clip.
This is definitely a game for Cleveland's other guys. If the Thunder play drop coverage against Garland because they're getting beat in ISO, that'll opens up Garland's floater, which is even more dangerous. Garland's points prop is more likely to go over than Mitchell's.
Another player with a big advantage? Evan Mobley. Hartenstein has to try and contain Allen, which is not great. Allen is sneaky great on little hook shots, shooting 73% on them this season.
But Mobley? OKC has no one for him. They're all physical and tough, but Mobley is bigger and will have to be the one the Thunder commit fewer resources to stopping. Oklahoma City plays so much to the exterior that it opens up some chances on the inside. The Thunder allow the fourth-most cut attempts in the league and also allow the fourth-fewest points per possession.
Guess who's the No. 1 team in cut points per possession (fourth in cuts per game)? The Cleveland Cavaliers. That's the battle.
Im Summary:
- Mitchell's going to have a rough game unless he just goes off
- The Cavs will make Gilgeous-Alexander pass
- Mobley will be a key X-Factor
- OKC needs to make its 3s
Cavaliers vs. Thunder Picks
I've got two same-game-parlays, depending on which side you want
If You're Backing the Cavaliers:
- Cavaliers -2.5
- Dean Wade 2+ Made 3s
- Cavaliers 1H Moneyline
- 5+ Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Assists
- 25+ Evan Mobley Points + Rebounds
At DraftKings: +550
I make this game Cavaliers -2.9 with home-court advantage. On a neutral, I have these teams separated by 0.2 points. I would not be surprised if this game went to overtime, that's how close it is.
The Cavaliers are the best home first-half team this season at 14-5 (7-3 in their past 10 at home via EVAnalytics). The Thunder have trailed at half in each of their past three games and were down double digits in the first half in each.
The Cavaliers, at home, are facing a team coming off a monster win vs. Boston, have a size advantage and better shooting.
The Gilgeous-Alexander assists' play is based on the Cavs' defensive coverage and how I expect them to try and force the ball out of his hands. It won't work all the time, but it'll work enough to get Gilgeous-Alexander to 5+ assists.
Mobley is a conservative play. Our friends at RotoGrinders make his points+rebounds line 28.3. He averages the most free-throw attempts per 100 possessions of any of the Cavaliers rotation guys. And guess who's 27th in opponent free-throw rate? OKC. I'll play this at 30+ on his individual line, but we'll keep it to 25 for the parlay.
Wade will likely be the beneficiary of open looks vs. the Thunder defense if the Cavs can get Oklahoma City scrambling.
If You're Backing the Thunder:
This one is simpler.
- Thunder Moneyline
- Donovan Mitchell Under 3.5 Made 3s
- Isaiah Hartenstein 4+ Assists
- Cavaliers Team Total Under 116.5
At DraftKings: +675
OKC finds a way to win with its defense. The Thunder do so by holding down Mitchell, who has only gone over this number in 19 of 34 games. So, it's a high number to begin with and it comes against the team that held him to less than 30% from 3 in both games last season and is the best contest team in the NBA.
Hartenstein is the tough one. We project him for 3.2 at RotoGrinders, but if I'm right and the Cavs try and get the ball out of Gilgeous-Alexander's hands, there's a good chance he finds Hartenstein on the short roll, who will then kicks to shooters or cutters.
The Thunder win this game with defense and some smart passing from Hartenstein vs. the scheme the Cavaliers use as Mitchell struggles in the Dorture Chamber.
I cannot wait for this matchup, and I hope you enjoy it (and your bets) too.
