I have one NBA pick today for Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Game 6 in the Western Conference semifinals on Thursday night.
Check out my top bet for Nuggets vs. Wolves total below.
NBA Pick Today: Nuggets vs. Timberwolves
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:30 p.m. ET | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves
Jamal Murray had an odd game on Tuesday, finishing with more touchdown catches (1) than attempted 3-pointers (0).
That marked only the second time in 69 games that Murray has finished without a 3-point attempt, and the first was a game in which he played under 10 minutes due to injury.
It also marked just the ninth time he finished with no 3-point makes. Only once did he fail to hit multiple 3s in the following game, averaging 2.88 in those eight contests.
I think he’s a good bet to rebound in Game 6.
While he did play more off-ball in Game 5 — which may have resulted in a slight downtick in pull-up 3 opportunities — Murray has still seen roughly 60% of his 3-point makes this season come via a teammate’s assist.
Tuesday was just one of those games where multiple role players got hot and scored above their season average — Aaron Gordon had 18 points, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope had 16 and Christian Braun had 10 — while Nikola Jokic dominated in the paint even more than usual (40 points on 22 shots), leaving no need for Murray to unleash his usual barrage of 3s.
Murray has hit multiple 3s in 3-of-5 games in this series — including both games in Minnesota — and 46-of-69 (66.7%) on the season in 32.5 minutes per game.
While Murray’s season-long rate wouldn’t typically be expected to translate fully against Minnesota’s top-tier defense, it is offset by Murray seeing a minutes uptick to 37.6 per game in this series despite battling through a calf injury.
That includes logging 38-plus minutes in each of the past three games and a playoff-high 41 minutes in Game 5.
I’m projecting Murray to go over 1.5 3s 64% of the time.
Pick: Jamal Murray Over 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-122 · Play to -175)
