The NBA is back! The stars are out on Opening Night as the defending champs, the Boston Celtics, take on the Knicks in a big-time, big-market New York-Boston rivalry game. In the West, Anthony Edwards gets his chance to shine under the bright lights against LeBron James and Anthony Davis (and Bronny!).
Here are the side and total bets and leans I'm making to kick off the season.
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 221.5 -110o / -110u | +185 |
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 221.5 -110o / -110u | -225 |
Line: Celtics -5.5
Total: 223.5
Bets: Celtics -5.5, over 223.5
The Knicks were built to beat the Celtics. They added Mikal Bridges for another switchable wing with OG Anunoby and Josh Hart. They added Karl-Anthony Towns as a stretch five weapon to counter Kristaps Porzingis (who won't play in this game).
This is, in some ways, a proof of concept early test. If the Knicks lose, it's not the end of the world; it's just the first game. But New York is full-throttle pursuing the title and trying to beat Boston. The moves made in the offseason made the Knicks less rough-and-tumble and more high-octane.
New York will switch more in this game with its personnel, and switching is typically effective in slowing down offenses. However, the Celtics are superb at attacking it because it's their base defense, so they know how to counter it.
The Knicks' defense last season was good, but it probably wasn't as good as advertised. They finished 10th in half-court defense. Good… not great. Perhaps removing Julius Randle and adding Bridges, a superb wing defender, shifts things. In particular, after the addition of Anunoby last season, they were awesome on the defensive end.
Boston should be able to score here because it scores on just about everyone. The Knicks wing defenders are good; Boston's perimeter scorers are better. It will take some time to get the Knicks on the same page.
I project this at Celtics -7.5 even with a league-average homecourt, whereas Boston has been a beast at home under Joe Mazzulla (84% SU, 56% ATS, +1.1 ATS margin as a home favorite).
I like the under here a lot, trends below will back this up. But the basketball side of it is that with KAT, the Knicks have a five-out, heavy 3-point offense, and Boston always bombs from deep.
Trends
- Home favorites on the Tuesday opening night games are 15-5 straight up, 11-9 ATS since 2014
- Unders on the Tuesday opening night games are 12-8 since 2014
- Eastern Conference home teams in the season opener for both teams are 42-26-3 ATS (61.8%)
- Overs in Eastern Conference home openers are 85-61 (58%) since 2014
- Joe Mazzulla is 26-20 (57%) ATS as a home favorite of less than 10 points, 9-6 as less than a 7-point home favorite
- Tom Thibodeau is 44-37-1 ATS (54.3%) as a road dog with the Knicks
- Thibs is only 3-7-1 ATS in season openers, 2-7 as a road dog
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -105 | 218.5 -112o / -108u | -112 |
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -115 | 218.5 -112o / -108u | -108 |
Line:Timberwolves -1 / Lakers +1.5
Total: 219.5
Bets: Under 219.5
I lean Timberwolves and trends support a play on them (below). But it's not enough to get me to bet them. The Wolves have some instability to deal with, adding Julius Randle to the starting unit. I think the addition of Donte DiVincenzo will be great for them, and if they go down early, I may add a live position on Minnesota.
But the under seems ripe for this game on top of the trends. Minnesota is a great defensive team, and while Randle is a downgrade, it's not enough to move me toward it struggling out of the gate vs. the Lakers.
The Lakers are expected to shoot more 3's under JJ Redick, which could cause issues here, as well as however the Wolves look with DiVincenzo in various lineups.
However, the under is 3-0 in season openers under Chris Finch, and this total has moved down from 225 over the summer to 219. I'll play the under in a messy opener.
Trends
- When a Western conference team is a home dog in their season opener, the under is 12-7-1 (63.2%). That's compared to 52% for Eastern Conference home dogs since 2014.
- After the All-Star Break, when the officiating shifted to more physical play and lower totals, both these teams went over. The over in Wolves games was 24-19, while it was 17-14-1 with the Lakers.
- Tuesday night openers are 28-16 to the under since 2014 and 10-8 to the under since 2019
