Thursday is Phenom Night in the NBA. Victor Wembanyama, the ultimate Phenom, takes on Luka Doncic, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who finished 2nd in MVP last season faces the 3-time reigning MVP Nikola Jokic a Mile High.
The Wolves try and get back on the hunt vs. the Kings, and I've got best bets for you on sides and totals for the slate.
Here are my NBA picks and predictions for Thursday, October 24.
NBA Picks and Predictions
- Spurs vs. Mavericks: Under 229.5 (Bet365)
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: Wolves -1.5 (-110) (DraftKings)
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: +2.5 (-110) (Bet365)
Matt Moore's Best Bets for Thursday
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 229.5 -110o / -110u | +240 |
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 229.5 -110o / -110u | -300 |
Spread: Mavericks -8.5
Total: 229.5
Best Bet: Under 229.5
This line is baffling to me. The Spurs and Mavericks played four times last season, as division opponents do. The average total was 238.4 in those four games, with the last two games, after the NBA's officiating adjustment slowed offense to a crawl. Both games after February 1st went under by double digits. Both teams shifted their defensive identity after the All-Star Break.
The Mavericks changed their identity in the back half of the season, adopting a defensive identity and finishing 13th in defensive rating after All-Star.
The Spurs finished 12th in the same span.
These teams aren't more offense than defense; Dallas reconfigured their team with Klay Thompson and Naji Marshall (and Quentin Grimes) to provide better spacing around Luka Doncic. But the Mavericks definitely found that defense was what unlocked them and made them into the Western Conference champions.
San Antonio, similarly, is way further ahead on defense than offense. Victor Wembanyama is obviously a phenom and unlike anything else on this planet. His presence alone will make things harder for other guards beside Doncic and the wings to score. Jeremy Sochan looks like he's going to be a good defender. Chris Paul? Still annoying and solid even if he can't burst anymore. Stephon Castle might be really good for a rookie.
I project this at 227.8. I don't know if it will be a rock fight, but I feel good on the under.
Pick: Under 229.5
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 226 -108o / -112u | -120 |
| Kings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 226 -108o / -112u | +100 |
Spread: Timberwolves -1.5
Total: 226
Best Bet: Timberwolves -1.5 (-110)
I get why this number is what it is. Based on the two teams' preseason win totals, this line should be about Kings -1.5, depending on where you put homecourt advantage. This opened Kings -1 and flipped to Wolves -1.5 Wednesday night.
But i still seems wrong to me. I project it Wolves -4.6 based on power rating. I haven't downgraded the Wolves for the opening night loss to the Lakers. They looked like a team with new parts, on the road, who turned the ball over a ton for easy transition points and got worked on the glass. Maybe the rebounding will be a long-term issue, and they had problems with turnovers last year, but while I think it was a good win for the Lakers, the Wolves were close enough in that game for me to not move them down…. yet.
The Kings are home and have a raucous crowd and have Sab0nis who may go crazy if the Wolves have the same rebounding troubles.
Western Conference home favorites in their openers are just 45% against the spread since 2014 and 41% if a dog or less than 3-point favorite.
One more great trend? Teams that lost the first game of the season on the road and are on the road again are 32-19 ATS since 2009 (63%). I'll bank on Minnesota rebounding — literally and figuratively — in this one.
Pick: Wolves -1.5 (-110)
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 226 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 226 -110o / -110u | -135 |
Spread: Nuggets -2.5
Total: 226
Best Bet: Thunder +2.5
I make this pick 'em even adjusting for Denver's outrageous altitude homecourt. I also have the Thunder as the best team in the West by power rating. The trends above on West home openers apply as does this: oddly, the Nuggets are 4-6 ATS in their home opener since 2014, despite going 7-3 SU.
OKC won the season series from Denver last year. They're without Isaiah Hartenstein which matters; Nikola Jokic is about to eat. But OKC's bench is much better and Denver will likely struggle with perimeter containment on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams.
Pick: Thunder +2.5 (-110)
