Do you hear that?
That's the sound of League Pass back in our lives.
The NBA season may have started on Tuesday night with the Celtics staring their title defense with (3s) bangs and Timberwolves vs. Lakers, but the real NBA for the sickos starts Wednesday with 10 games across ESPN and League Pass.
Here's a look at what I'm betting as the season truly gets underway and my NBA picks and predictions for Wednesday.
NBA Picks and Predictions
- Pacers vs Pistons: Under 235 (DraftKings)
- Magic vs Heat: Over 208.5 (DraftKings)
- Hornets vs Rockets: Under 229.5 (DraftKings)
- Warriors vs Trail Blazers: Under 222 + Warriors -6 Parlay (DraftKings)
Matt Moore's Best Bets for Wednesday
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -112 | 235 -112o / -108u | -205 |
| Pistons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -108 | 235 -112o / -108u | +170 |
Spread:Pacers -5
Total: 235
Best Bet: Under 235
I want to bet the Pistons so badly. So badly. I'm on their win total over-24.5 and this is the perfect game to start that off on the right foot. A division game in the season opener vs. a soft defense. Eastern Conference home dogs in the season openers are 11-5-1 ATS since 2014.
But I project this at Pacers -6 on power rating and there's always that chance the Pistons are still, you know, awful.
But I do love the under. Yes, the Pacers are a fantastic offense, the best in the league qualitatively, in my humble view. But I only have them projected for 116 points in this game, based on pace. The Pistons defense in preseason was surprisingly good. It's preseason, so whatever, but it's still a good sign.
Offensively, the Pistons should be better and "better vs. the Pacers' typically is a good result. But after the All-Star Break last season, the Pacers were 18th in defense. I'm not expecting them to be world-beaters defensively; they might be truly awful again. But if they are just "not great" even with the Pistons' internal improvements, that's probably good for an under.
Eastern Conference totals of 229 or higher in a season opener are 8-4 to the under since 2013, greater than 225 is 9-6 to the under.
What better way to start the season than by betting a Pacers under?
Pick: Under 235 (Play to 233.5)
| Magic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -112 | 208.5 -108o / -112u | +110 |
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -108 | 208.5 -108o / -112u | -130 |
Spread:Heat -2
Total: 208.5
Best Bet: Over 208.5
Similarly, why not take an over on two elite defenses?
Let's start here: Totals for Eastern Conference home openers of less than 210 are 18-10 to the over since 2013. The logic is that Eastern Conference teams are considered better defensively or worse offensively than they should be while the West (where sub-210 totals are 10-11-2 since 2014) is more accurately rated in the market.
Miami is taking more 3's in preseason, particularly Bam Adebayo.
Orlando I'm concerned about offensively; they looked as bad as ever on that end in preseason. But on a structural level, there's a good chance the offense is better than last year. Anthony Black looks much better as a scorer. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope provides shooting.
This total is lower than the last two matchups between these two teams which were both at 213.5. I'll play against a low total with a more normal offensive output for two good teams.
Pick: Over 208.5
| Hornets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -112 | 229.5 -110o / -110u | +260 |
| Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -108 | 229.5 -110o / -110u | -325 |
Spread:Rockets -8
Total: 229.5
Best Bet: Under 229.5
The danger with this bet is the Rockets offense. With Jalen Green looking sharper and Reed Sheppard looking like an offensive dynamo, there's risk here. But the Rockets are first and foremost a grind-it-out squad under Ime Udoka.
However, the market inefficiency is on the Hornets' defense. Charles Lee has made a big impact already on Charlotte and they look more organized on the defensive end. Houston has the kind of guard defenders in Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks to contain the Hornets' stars in LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller. Houston forced opponents into the 8th-longest average possession in seconds last season with pestering defense and that should hold up.
Houston finished 20th in offensive rating schedule-adjusted last season and they still have a lot of young players and a few inefficient ones.
For trends, the under is 29-22-1 when an Eastern Conference team is on the road for a home opener vs. a Western Conference team since 2014. Western Conference home openers in general are 129-99-6 (57%).
I project this at 216. It's already moved from 234 to 229, and season opener games steamed more than 3 points down are 37-24-1, 60.7% on the under since 2003, 22-10-1 (68%) since 2014.
Pick: Under 229.5
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -108 | 221.5 -110o / -110u | -230 |
| Trail Blazers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -112 | 221.5 -110o / -110u | +190 |
Spread:Warriors -6
Total: 221.5
Best Bet: Under 222 + Warriors -6 Parlay
The Warriors defense looks absolutely dominant in preseason. It's not just the stats, that's whatever. It's preseason. But their rotations and physicality, especially among the young players, really showed. Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, Trayce Jackson-Davis, they all looked grown up and ready to be led by Draymond Green.
I have the Warriors as 9-point favorites here, and the total at 221, which doesn't reflect an upgrade on Golden State's defense.
Western Conference division road favorites in the season opener are 7-2 ATS and the under is 7-2 in those games since 2014.
Pick: Under 222 + Warriors -6 Parlay (+220)
