It's Friday night in the NBA, and we have a full slate of games to bet. The lines are still soft, built on preseason projections so there's opportunity.
Let's dive in with my NBA best bets and NBA picks for Friday, October 25.
NBA Best Bets and Picks Friday
- Pistons vs. Cavs Under
- Pacers to beat the Knicks
- Pacers vs. Knicks Over
- Hornets vs. Hawks Under
- Warriors vs. Jazz Under
Pistons vs. Cavaliers
| Pistons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -112 | 225.5 -112o / -108u | +400 |
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -108 | 225.5 -112o / -108u | -535 |
My pick: Under the total (Bet to 221)
Detroit played some of the best defense we've seen from them in about a half-decade vs. one of the top offensive units in the league in their home opener loss to the Pacers. Indiana eventually woke up and wore out the Pistons in the fourth, but the defensive process from Detroit was worlds better than we've seen. The offense, however, vs. a notably weak defensive team, was still not great, and they shot 27% from 3-point range.
Meanwhile, the Cavaliers had the second-best offensive performance of any team in the opening games (through Thursday night) and demolished the Raptors. But they also had the second-best defensive performance.
Cleveland shot 65% on 2-point shots vs. the overwhelmed Raptors but the Pistons have a lot more size down low and athleticism in the frontcourt.
We can get home here with a dominant Cleveland defensive performance or a close, ugly game. Even if the Cavaliers outclass them, a shootout between these two squads is hard to see. I project this at 219.7, and like this at any number to 221.
Two trends for the road:
- When a team wins their opener by 15 or more, the under is 32-15 since 2014
- Teams off a road win in their season opener in their home opener next game are 31-20-1 to the under
Pacers vs. Knicks
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 227.5 -110o / -110u | +184 |
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 227.5 -110o / -110u | -220 |
My Picks: Pacers ML (Bet to +164), Over the total (Bet to 230)
I make this Knicks -1.5 vs. the -4.5 spread. Teams on the road as less than a 5-point dog in the first quarter of the season (first 21 games) who cover are 903-62 straight up (93%). So if I'm betting the Pacers to cover, and I have this as a two-point difference, I'm just going to play the moneyline and play smaller on spread.
New York should bounce back here; teams that lost by 15 on the road to start the season have won 68% of the time as favorites if the next game is their home opener.But they've only covered 47% of the time.
There's bad blood here and it's a motivational spot. Teams that lost to their opponent in the playoffs the last time they met are 70% straight up and 53% ATS. But of course, if they don't cover, they only win straight up about 34% of the time.
OK, let's do the basketball side. The Pacers clearly gave the Knicks trouble in that playoff series last year, even if the Knicks were a hospital wing by the end. The ability to consistently push the pace and find easy buckets hurt the Knicks' defense which wants to grind it out and doesn't want to face constant ball pressure.
The Knicks no longer have the ability to generate 700 offensive rebounds per game with the departure of Isaiah Hartenstein. Josh Hart will still get them, but they are no longer an OREB factory. That changes the margin vs. a team like Indiana.
Meanwhile, Indiana probably is better than they showed vs. Detroit and still won the game with a strong fourth-quarter effort despite a bad night from Tyrese Haliburton until the dagger late.
I'll play the projection and the trends, with better value on the moneyline and a smaller play on the spread that likely fails if the moneyline doesn't get home.
Hornets vs. Hawks
| Hornets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -114 | 230 -109o / -112u | +175 |
| Hawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -107 | 230 -109o / -112u | -215 |
My Pick: Under the total (Bet to 229.5)
Charlotte's transition defense is the worry here; it was really bad vs. the Rockets' athleticism early in their game. But they also had better principles in the halfcourt. Charles Lee's impact was evident. I'm not absolutely sold they can hold up; Nick Richards may get worked on the glass like he was vs. Alperen Sengun.
But the Hawks' heavy pick and roll attack is something Lee is well equipped to scheme against after his time with Mike Budenholzer and Joe Mazzulla.
Atlanta's first game was against the Nets, and Cam Thomas scored 30-plus. But the overall numbers were decent. It's low competition, but it's something vs. a line of 230.5. I'm playing on the projection and against the narrative of this being an absolute race to 120.
Warriors vs. Jazz
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 233 -108o / -112u | -142 |
| Jazz Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 233 -108o / -112u | +120 |
My Pick: Under the total (Bet to 230)
This has already steamed to 233 from 234.5. This is a play on the Warriors' defense being the best unit in the game. This isn't dissimilar to how I bet Warriors-Blazers, except the Warriors put up a huge number on a terrible Blazers defense and might do the same here, but this total is 12 points higher than Warriors-Blazers (222).
So I'm going back to the well.
Golden State might have a top-five defense based on roster and preseason. The Jazz have a good offense but Golden State might simply be that good. Utah put up 124 on the Grizzlies, but Memphis without Jaren Jackson Jr. and with Zach Edey in foul trouble just didn't have enough rim protection.
I don't mind playing the Jazz team total under to be safe, but I want another crack at a combined under for Golden State.
