The 2024-25 NBA season is finally here. We've been deep in the sportsbook mines, searching for the best bets for you to add to your portfolio before the season tips off on Tuesday.
From win totals, Rookie of the Year, Most Improved Player, and Sixth Man of the Year predictions from our Buckets podcast contributors to where my power rating disagrees with the market, these are all the best bets from Action Network NBA.
NBA Predictions for 2024-25 Season
Best NBA Title Bet
- Phoenix Suns +3000: The Suns improved their roster by adding a full-time point guard in Tyus Jones. They improved the bench. Expectations are lower to reduce pressure. Devin Booker will benefit from the Team USA bump. Mike Budenholzer is a near automatic 50-win coach with a roster this talented. He may struggle with adapting his team's identity in the playoffs, but just having an identity in the playoffs will help the Suns. This number is ridiculous. You can bet Kevin Durant to average 25 ppg and the Suns to win the title at a whopping +4500 if you want the bigger play. – Matt Moore
If you disagree, you'll enjoy Bryan Fonseca's NBA Title Price Finder episode of Buckets:
Fonseca's takes:
- "I like the Mike Budenholzer hire. I like Tyus Jones a lot and I’m surprised that he was had at value, but the trio scares me."
- "Kevin Durant’s health … he’s gonna be in year 18, you know, it just doesn’t seem stable".
- "Bradley Beal didn’t look great last year in totality. Devin Booker obviously was great this summer in the Olympics. He’s had some injuries, but you would think he’s still in the prime of his career.
- "Mike Budenholzer is legitimately a good coach. He’s won Coach of the Year multiple times and deserved it both times, honestly. I just don’t see a world where if I’m taking a title future, am I looking to just cash out if the number drops?"
Season Long Player Prop Picks
- Michaael Porter Jr. over 2.8 3-pointers made per game: "MPJ’s averaged 2.7, 3.0, and 2.8 3s per game in the three healthy seasons he’s played with the Nuggets … I think we’re gonna see more possessions, maybe a little bit faster pace.” – Joe Dellera
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to lead the league in scoring (+600): "When (Josh) Giddy was (on the court), Shai averaged 35 points per 100 possessions. Now guess what he did when Giddy was off … 49.9 points per 100 possessions. Shai is a potential MVP, and this is kind of cashing in off of that, to target the points per game specifically."
- LeBron James to lead the league in assists (+6000) from Jim Turvey:"Listen, if LeBron is even close to this, that corny old dude is gonna put aside everything and try to get that on his name. If he's even close to this, and the Lakers are like the 10 seed or 11 seed in the West and they're just kind of getting buried, it is the most LeBron thing ever for him to just absolutely sell out, kind of Wilt Chamberlain style, when Wilt went for the assist lead in that one season, to pad his career record with an assist per game lead."– Jim Turvey
NBA Awards Picks, Best Bets
Luka Doncic MVP (+330): The one-man army is the favorite to win the award … again … but this time he has a Finals run and the best team around him of his career. The secret real reason to bet Luka isn't Klay Thompson or even Naji Marshall. It's Dereck Lively, who is the best rim runner he's ever played with and opens everything up. If the Mavs are a top-3 seed, his stats will dwarf every other candidate, even Nikola Jokic. – Matt Moore
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder (+425): Do you realize how much it pains me to take two favorites? But we've done the research on our podcast, Buckets: There's an age drop off for MVP candidates and Nikola Jokic (3-time winner), Joel Embiid (one-time winner), and Giannis Antetokounmpo (two-time winner) have all reached that cliff. SGA was the (MVP) runner-up on a team most project will win 55-plus games. He's the most consistent 30-points-per-game scorer in the league outside of Joel Embiid and the engine of a projected 1-seed. He's short in the market but not short enough. – Matt Moore
Zaccharie Risacher Rookie Of The Year (+900): Risacher was +1300 back in August and is down to +900 now. No. 1 picks in bad draft years don't have a lot of luck. However, Risacher looks solid for the Hawks and will get opportunities as a player who doesn't need the ball to score next to Young. If he winds up starting, he might just outpace a bad class. – Matt Moore
Stephon Castle Rookie Of The Year (+1100) : Castle looks physically superior to a lot of his rookie classmates. Gregg Popovich had Castle close a close preseason game with the bench vs. the Heat the other night. That might sound like nothing, but getting Castle reps in a high-leverage (for preseason) situation is meaningful. They feel he's ready for it. He'll play enough. I expect him to start by December and be in the race to the finish. – Matt Moore
Franz Wagner (+3500), Jalen Suggs (+5000) Most Improved Player: I have positions on two Magic players with the idea one will get home.
Jalen Suggs fits into all the categories for players who typically win this award. He was drafted fifth overall, he's 23 years old, he shot 39% from 3-point range, and I would have sworn it was 31. Suggs is going to start a point guard. So we're going to see a jump in assists. We're going to see a jump in scoring. We're going to see a jump in all of those kind of categories.
"Surely the offense has to be better. Maybe the answer is going to be Paolo Banchero, but Franz shot terribly from three last year. He'll shoot better this year; I don't think it's possible for him to shoot worse. So he should jump in that category. Franz has a really phenomenal feel-for-the-game as an on-ball weapon. And so I think there's room for him to improve here. At 60-1 (now 35-1), I'm going to bet Franz Wagner." – Matt Moore
Nikola Jokic for Clutch Player of the Year (+3500) "Nikola Jokic might be the best clutch player in the NBA right now, and last year he finished fourth in clutch points with fewer field goal attempts than others. Jokic consistently shows up in the best On/Off metrics and is one of the most efficient players in these situations. If we add a bit more nuance to this award beyond just sorting by points, Jokic at 35-1 is an incredible value considering his consistent impact in late-game moments." — Jim Turvey
Quinn Snyder for Coach of the Year (+4000) "I’m going to pull out Quinn Snyder as my best bet at 40-1. He’s the ultimate NBA hipster’s dream coach, and I think he has the respect of people around the league. If the Hawks have a strong season and hit the mid-50s in wins, the narrative fits perfectly for Snyder to get a lot of credit for turning things around in Atlanta." — Jim Turvey
Rick Carlisle for Coach of the Year (+3000) “The Pacers are in that 46, 47 range, and if I'm looking at Rick Carlisle, I have to think: Can they get the one or the two seed in the Eastern Conference? Over the last several years in the East, 57 wins gets you the one or two seed, and it's plausible that this happens. Building off what they did last year, they’re sort of built to succeed in the regular season, and that's a key marker for a Coach of the Year candidate.” – Bryan Fonseca
Karl-Anthony Towns to Make the All-Star Team (+240): “He’s a center now, which puts him in a better position in the Eastern Conference with fewer standout bigs. If you consider the Knicks bump, his numbers could be strong, and he’s got the talent to put up All-Star-level performances. At this number, I think Towns making the All-Star team is a reasonable and solid play, especially with how the Knicks are expected to perform this year.” — Joe Dellera
Benedict Mathurin to Win Sixth Man of the Year (+2500): “I just think that he is the perfect archetype for this award. He’s a microwave scorer, and that’s the type of player who usually wins this award outside of the exceptions in the past two seasons. On an Indiana Pacers team with a high-octane offense and without Buddy Hield, Mathurin has a good opportunity to be a primary scorer off the bench.” — Joe Dellera
Donte DiVincenzo for Sixth Man of the Year (+1400) "This guy here, Donte DiVincenzo, at 14-1. No bias, even though he was a Knicks guy. He’ll come off the bench with one mission: to put the rock in the hole. He checks all the boxes and will play 25-plus minutes a game on a good team, and I think he’s in the perfect role for this award." — Sean Little
Julian Strawther for Sixth Man of the Year (15000-1) “Julian Strawther is one of the best shooters you have on the Nuggets, and you need Jokic plus shooter as many times as possible on this team. There’s a world where he’s actually the best fit with Jokic because of his shooting, and I think that’s going to lead to him playing a ton of minutes and having a big impact off the bench. He has the size to play the two or three, and with Denver not having a lot of depth, I see a strong case for Strawther being a key piece off the bench.”– Bryan Fonseca
Jalen Williams Most Improved Player (+2200): "Of all the guys we've talked about other than Wemby, I think Jalen Williams is the most likely guy to be an All-Star on this list. I think the Thunder are going to be a juggernaut. I think they're most likely to win the most games in the NBA. Their offense and defense are going to be better than they were last year. I think if we see Jalen Williams' usage jump, his points per game are clearly going to go up. I see him averaging 24 to 25 points per game and being just a clear-cut All-Star on the best team in the West."- Matt Altman
Jalen Johnson Most Improved Player (+2200):"(The Hawks) lost more points per game on a pure numbers basis than any other team in the NBA did with the trading of Dejounte Murray and Saddiq Bey not coming back, at around 35 points per game. And where are those points going to come from? The most likely place is from Jalen Johnson. So just jumping up and having more opportunities to both have the ball in his hands, hit open 3s, or be on the short roll for Trey — it's just many chances for him to score more points and be a more important part of the offense." — Matt Altman
NBA Playoff Picks: Bets for Play-In Teams
Charlotte Hornets to Make the Play-In Tournament (+140): “If LaMelo Ball can stay healthy, this team can really compete for a play-in spot. They have a new coach who’s preaching defense, and the players have bought into it. With some other teams like the Bulls and Hawks potentially sliding down, the Hornets can sneak into that ninth or 10th spot in the play-in.” — JAY MONEY
NBA Win Totals and Futures Picks
Check out our Buckets Podcast Page for more
Pelicans Under 42.5 Wins and Hawks Over 40.5 Wins Combo Parlay (+954:) “We’re getting almost a 10-1 on the ‘It Was All Dejounte Murray’s Fault’ parlay. A little bit of the cap is, I do think that Murray, at this point in his career, is potentially one of those players who just does not contribute to winning as much. For the Pelicans, I like their under because they seem to be scrambling all over; they’re starting the season without a center, which leads to Zion having to play more minutes against bigs, and historically, Zion hasn’t been able to stay healthy.”— Jim Turvey
Celtics to Win Their Division (-140): “I’m all over the Celtics to win the division at minus 140. The Celtics are just absurdly good, with incredible depth, and their floor is like 55 wins. They’re a team that has a lot of stability and talent, and with the Sixers openly managing Embiid’s minutes, it feels like the Celtics should lock up this division with relative ease.” — Jim Turvey
Thunder to Win Their Division (-120): “The Thunder are being priced as a legitimate contender with a solid roster and a ton of depth, and I’m very out on Denver repeating its regular-season dominance. This number should be shorter, and with OKC’s young core continuing to develop, I think they’re going to be one of the best regular-season teams in the league. To me, the Thunder have great value to win their division at this number.” — Jim Turvey
Jalen Williams to Average 23+ Points Per Game and 4+ Assists Per Game (+350): “Williams averaged 19.1 points per game last season and showed he can put up even higher numbers with Giddy off the floor, averaging 25.5 points per 100 possessions. I like this as a way to back Jalen Williams without getting caught up in the voting process for most improved, focusing instead on his raw output. The Thunder are expected to be a top team, and Williams is poised for a breakout season in an elevated role." — Joe Dellera
Victor Wembanyama Over 11.5 Rebounds Per Game: “Victor averaged 12 rebounds per game after the All-Star break last season, and he’s bulked up significantly. With his length and athleticism, even without perfect technique, he’s just reaching up and securing boards over everyone else. This line of 11.5 rebounds hasn’t moved, and I love getting the over here.” — Joe Dellera
Orlando Magic Over 47.5 Wins: “The Orlando Magic are going to be tough on a possession-to-possession basis, especially on the defensive end. They’ve added KCP, who brings defense and shooting, and they’ve got Jalen Suggs, who is one of the best on-ball defenders in the league. I see this team as having everything it takes to compete in the East and win a lot of ball games.” — Sean Little
Celtics Under 58.5 Wins: “I’m not sure where the motivation for this team to win 59 games in the regular season is going to come from, especially when we know Kristaps Porzingis is not starting the year. Since Brad Stevens left, it’s been three straight seasons of ‘we have something to prove’ Celtics, and I think that angle is gone. There’s just a lot of factors pointing towards them not having to Sean Little push for back-to-back 60-plus win seasons.”
