Tonight is a big night in the NBA, and I've got four plays for you based on my projections, analysis, and trends.
Continue below for my NBA picks, predictions, and best bets for Monday, February 10.
NBA Picks & Predictions for Monday, February 10
Cavaliers at Timberwolves
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -108 | 230 -110o / -110u | +320 |
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -112 | 230 -110o / -110u | -410 |
The over/under for this matchup is a key betting angle, and based on full-season data, I project the total at 232.5 points.
There are good trends for support the over in this game. When the Timberwolves face teams that average more made threes than the league average, the over is 13-7. Similarly, when the Cavaliers play teams that excel from beyond the arc, the over is 12-7.
Additionally, when Cleveland enters as the favorite, the over is 32-16 (67%). Given that the over is also 17-11 in Cavaliers home games this season, this trend is worth strong consideration.
From a tactical perspective, the Cavaliers' defense has some gaps in it that the Wolves can exploit. They often double the ballhandler, which will open things for Naz Reid in particular. On offense, the Cavaliers' guards will be able to attack Rudy Gobert by getting downhill.
Both teams take a lot of threes while trying to contain, but each has cutter mechanisms with Evan Mobley and Rudy Gobert to counter an over-emphasis on the perimeter. These are two above-average defenses, but both defenses are also slightly overrated, while the Wolves' offense is underrated.
PICK: Over 229.5
Hornets at Nets
| Hornets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -115 | 212 -112o / -108u | +145 |
| Nets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -105 | 212 -112o / -108u | -175 |
Look, they're not all going to be fun games between great teams, OK? Based on my projections, I make this line Hornets -1.2, which suggests there’s some value in backing Charlotte as an underdog.
The Nets are 0-4 this season as a home favorite against a team with a 45 percent winning percentage or worse. The Hornets are 6-1 ATS as a road dog against teams with win percentage below 45 percent.
Charlotte is awful but they actually are 18th in non-garbage time defense according to Cleaning The Glass. The Nets are 29th in net rating vs. bottom-10 offensive teams. However low you can go, they can go lower.
The Hornets are on a back to back so wait for the injury report, but at +4 I'll take Charlotte.
PICK: Hornets +4
Pelicans at Thunder
| Pelicans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15.5 -108 | 236 -105o / -115u | +750 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15.5 -112 | 236 -105o / -115u | -1200 |
I’m just not scared to lay these big numbers with Oklahoma. The Thunder are 9-5 ATS (64%) this season as a double-digit favorite at home. On the other side, the Pelicans have struggled in these spots, going just 2-9 ATS as a double-digit road underdog.
OKC creates havoc with turnovers and gets out in transition, and while the Pelicans aren’t the worst at protecting the ball (ranking 18th in opponent points off turnovers, pace-adjusted), they do allow the most fastbreak points per 100 possessions in the league. Defensively, OKC should terrorize the Pels' backcourt and they have the wings to defend Trey Murphy who has been their best player.
Based on my projections, I make this line Thunder -17, and I’m comfortable laying the points.
PICK: Thunder -15.5
Moneyline Parlay
I have Orlando slightly above the spread here at -4.9, which aligns with their home dominance. Since the start of last season, the Magic have been an impressive 36-7 at home.
Boston has been significantly better on the road than at home this season, and based on my projections, I make them a 7-point favorite in this matchup. That puts some slight value on their moneyline.
As mentioned earlier, I actually make the Hornets favorites in their matchup. What could be more exciting than backing a 13-37 team to win on the road just before the All-Star Break?
- Magic -198
- Celtics -192
- Hornets +145
Parlay Payout: +460
