The NBA has a solid slate on Saturday featuring the return of Kawhi Leonard to the Clippers from injury, again, the Grizzlies taking on the Warriors (without Steph Curry), and what could be a barnburner with the Pacers and Suns.
Here's what I'm betting Saturday.
NBA Picks, Predictions, Expert Bets, Odds for Saturday, January 4
Hawks vs. Clippers
| Hawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 227.5 -110o / -110u | +225 |
| Clippers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 227.5 -110o / -110u | -280 |
Kawhi Leonard makes his season debut Saturday vs. the Hawks who are on a back to back. This is an absolutely perfect spot to fade LA.
Trying to integrate a high-usage superstar coming off a long-term injury when they've been playing one way (around James Harden) all season.
Just like with trades, teams struggle with chemistry and execution trying to integrate a major new piece.
And you're getting over two possessions in this matchup.
But… the Hawks are 2-4 ATS on the second night of a back to back and this is an LA Nightlife spot. Atlanta lost to the Lakers Friday night and then had Friday night in the city.
For one of the most erratic teams in the NBA this season, this is just a no-go, but I lean heavily towards grabbing the points with Atlanta.
LEAN: Hawks +6.5
Suns vs. Pacers
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -114 | 234 -110o / -110u | +108 |
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -106 | 234 -110o / -110u | -126 |
Indiana's getting it together. They're 6-3 in their last nine and coming off a dominant road win vs. the imploding Heat. Most notable? Indiana's up to 6th in offense the last two weeks and have climbed to 9th in schedule-adjusted offense.
That's great news for bettors because the lines will reflect their slow start offensively.
I lean Pacers here. Phoenix still seems lost in the woods and Indiana's offense should have a field day. But the Pacers are sub.500 at home ATS and the Suns are the same on the road.
I love the over, however. Pacers games have gone over this in four of the last five games. The Suns play slower in general but almost no one is able to resist being sped up by how the Pacers play. Suns games are better than 70% to the over on the road, Pacers games better than 70% to the over at home.
Without Jusuf Nurkic's rim protection and without a viable smallball switchable big, vs. a revived Tyrese Haliburton and the kind of shooters the Suns bring to the table, I think we're set for just what Indiana wants: a shootout.
PICK: Over 234.5
Jazz vs. Heat
| Jazz Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -108 | 223.5 -108o / -112u | +295 |
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -112 | 223.5 -108o / -112u | -375 |
Under ordinary circumstances I would love the Heat here. Spoelstra is 20-4 SU, 13-11 ATS at home coming off a home loss.
But I mean… you can't back Miami laying this many points given the Jimmy Butler situation. You also can't fade them. Maybe they rally together against adversity and clock a bad team. Maybe they look disjointed and out of sorts trying to figure out what's happening in an uncertain time.
The good news is you can trust the Jazz to score and not play defense. Both these teams are over 50% to the over in their respective home/away splits and I make this a ridiculous 244.
I don't trust that figure, but I do think Tyler Herro goes bonkers and the Heat bounce back while Utah continues to put up points.
Miami is the 8th-best home offense this season, Utah the 3rd-worst road defense.
You can play the Heat team total if you want, but again, given the team's uncertainty, I'm more willing to just play the combined over.
PICK: Over 223
Grizzlies vs. Warriors
| Grizzlies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 233.5 -108o / -112u | +124 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 233.5 -108o / -112u | -146 |
Back to the (Jaylen) Wells!
I lost on Grizzlies spread and alt line vs. the Kings Friday night in an annoying game where Jaren Jackson picked up six fouls in a quarter; truly impressive stuff.
The Warriors are without Curry in this game, but have done well without him this season going 7-6 SU and ATS (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS as a favorite).
Memphis is without Ja Morant and may wind up sitting more players so wait for an injury report. Memphis is still 12-6 ATS without Morant this season. The Grizzlies are 5-0 SU and ATS on the second night of a back to back.
There's no way to get to a point where the Warriors without Curry should be favored against Memphis without Ja. You just can't get there. With a full-strength Curry I still make this Memphis -2.5. They're better, top to bottom with both players out.
Wait to make sure Jackson and Bane play, but I'll grab the points and play an alt-line, again, with Memphis. Maybe I just love pain.
PICK: Grizzlies +2.5
Nuggets vs. Spurs
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -108 | 236 -110o / -110u | -148 |
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -112 | 236 -110o / -110u | +126 |
Let's just do a trend to start.
Denver lost to the Spurs on Friday night at home in a classic. Teams playing in these "home and home" sets who lost as a favorite at home and are now favored on the road are 19-12 SU, 18-13 ATS since 2003.
The Nuggets had a whole host of things go wrong on Friday night but also just looked largely confused by the presence of Victor Wembanyama.
Playing him again, they'll be more focused and settled in. Michael Malone tried a few lineups that were clearly experimental and will likely not go to those here.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets are 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS on the second night of a back to back this season, and 22-9 SU, 18-13 ATS going back to 2022-23.
I make this right around the number, but the trends put me on Denver to bounce back in a revenge spot.
PICK: Nuggets -3.5
