It's that time of the year. The NBA is back and so are the betting opportunities. With the league back in action, there's so much that can transpire in a season. From the NBA Cup, numerous awards, milestones from the greats, and the most important: winning it all for the Larry O'Brien. It's a fresh start for the unthinkable to happen and that is exactly what we're bringing to you.
This NBA season, there are storylines that are catching the eyes of many already. But, to take it to the next level, we're about to break down which ones are tying into some longshot bets from our experts. So sit down and prepare for what our staff has in mind for the season ahead and just how far they're willing to go on a few longshot bets of their own.
Let's get started!
Russell Westbrook
13 Points, 6 Assists, 6 Rebounds A Game (+5500)
This is my favorite long shot on the board – who doesn’t want to bet on Russell Westbrook counting stats? He averaged 11/5/5 last year in just 22 MPG, a bucket, a board, and a dime off these numbers, and Westbrook has hit 13/6/6 per 30 minutes every season since 2015. We’re likely going to see plenty of Westbrook minutes when Jamal Murray is resting or injured, and count in some triple-doubles doing everything when Nikola Jokic sits. I bet Russ for Sixth Man of the Year too but this is even better, cuz he can get all the starts he wants and help the bet even more. An absolutely ludicrous number.
Bennedict Mathurin
Sixth Man of the Year (+2500)
I like Mathurin's opportunity here as a guy that plays primarily off the bench. He's a microwave scorer and even though he's coming off of injury, he can easily score 17-18 points per game this season. He had better splits post ASG and at home, those are things that tend to regulate as players get more seasoned and watch more tape. Indiana should contend for a higher seed in the East.
Mike Budenholzer
+2500 (Multiple Sportsbooks)
I can’t believe how high I ended up on the Suns for the regular season, and it’s almost entirely because of Coach Budenholzer. Bud’s teams have ranked top six in 3-point attempts in eight of 10 seasons and that’s exactly what the Suns need. Phoenix was top five in 3-point percentage last season but bottom five in attempt rate.
The Suns are jacking them up in the preseason so far, a great sign, and add in a great free throw rate and reduced turnovers with point guards around this year and this could be the No. 1 offense. Bud’s teams usually defend well by four factors too, and four of the last eight Coaches of the Year were in their first year on a team.
I bet Cleveland’s Kenny Atkinson too at +3000 but Bud is my favorite pick.
Matisse Thybulle
SPG Leader +3000
Love to bet on the steals per game market because literally 2.0 SPG puts you in the mix and that makes it incredibly volatile. I don’t need to tell you how great of a defender Thybulle is – he’s averaged at least 1.6 SPG in three of the last four seasons despite averaging just 21 MPG.
We just need to get him to like 28 MPG and this is a hit, and on a tanking team, his lack of offense might just be the perfect solution. I also sprinkled Gary Trent Jr. at 150-1 and Keon Ellis at 250-1 looking for that sweet long shot hit, and Jim Turvey likes DeAnthony Melton 60-1 as well.
Darius Garland
20 PPG and Cavaliers 50 Wins (+800)
By Jim Turvey
For Garland, this is more about taking a step back to where he was, rather than any sort of progression. Last year—in a season from hell—he averaged 18.0 ppg, a far cry from the 21.7 and 21.6 he averaged the two seasons before that. Still just 25 years old, I’m willing to write off last year as an aberration, especially when I can pair it with a bet on the Cavs—a team I want to be in this season.
Markets are treating 50 wins as right around their 50th percentile outcomes, and I personally have them projected for just over 50. If Garland is able to get back to his old self, it will be great news for the Cavs, who weathered all sorts of injuries to finish with 55 Pythagorean wins last season.
PARLAY:
Luka Doncic MVP (+330), Zaccharie Risacher ROY (+750), and Jalen Williams Most Improved Player (+1100) Total: +43760
By Matt Moore
FanDuel lets you parlay awards and, well, I kind of love it. Luka’s the favorite and has been the favorite for years but this year is different. It’s the best roster he’s ever had and his numbers are always monstrous.
Risacher was 2nd in points per game and 2nd in points plus rebounds plus assists in preseason and seven of the last nine Rookie of the Year winners were top 10. Jalen Williams is the consensus best bet among our Action Network crew for Most Improved.
This puts you in a fine position where if we can get two of these in pole position, we can hedge later and if it hits? Well, over 437-to-1 ain’t a bad payout at all.
Jimmy Butler
Average 20+ PPG, 6+ RPG, 6+ APG (+2000)
Jimmy is in a contract year so he's going to be giving it his all to get that bag. Given his age this is probably his final big contract. He did this in 2021 and he’s always close – last year he was at 5.3/5.0. Miami has more scoring options now so this should allow him to perform well with the other counting stats too.
Andre Drummond
Rebounds Per Game Leader (+7500)
By Jim Turvey
This is my favorite long shot bet of the preseason. He averaged nine rebounds per game in 17 minutes per game last year. Now he gets to be the backup center to a center who's already saying he's not going to play back to backs. So for 20+ games a season, Drummond is going to be out there a decent amount. If he gets even close to 25 minutes a game, he's going to be very, very much in the running for this.
Walker Kessler
Blocks Per Game Leader +3000
By Jim Turvey
This is a minutes thing. On a per-minute basis, he was nearly even to Victor Wembanyama last year. Wemby was at 4,3 and Kessler was at 3.7. Nobody else was over 3.
If Kessler can get a bump in minutes and if Wemby puts the fear of God in people and they stop driving on him, or he just hurt even just for a little bit, Kessler is very live.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Lead The League In PPG and OKC Thunder to Win Western Conference (+2000)
SGA should see a clear uptick in scoring without Josh Giddey’s empty calories on offense. SGA was close to leading the league last year and his high floor will always keep him in the race.
OKC is the best team top to bottom in the West at this juncture and this allows me to combine two outcomes that are moderately correlated.
Julian Strawther
To Win Sixth Man of the Year (+15000)
Julian Strawther is one of the best shooters on the Denver Nuggets who will be relied more than you may expect (and potentially want?) this season. You need Nikola Jokic with shooters as often as possible.
I think his complimentary play will force Mike Malone’s hand and lead to him being impactful. The issue is he could play well enough to start, but it’s a +15,000 swing.
Tre Mann
To Win Sixth Man of the Year (+8000)
Tre Mann screams “Sixth Man” game. In Charlotte, he is likely to be the sixth man all year behind LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller. He had a great preseason, and maybe he won’t always average 16/3/3 in 19.6 minutes on 60/47 shooting from the field and from deep, but he did average about 11/5/5 after landing in Charlotte from OKC, and should carry a bench unit for a team that I think is underrated.
Memphis Grizzlies
To Win Most Regular Season Games (+6500)
We do all realize that the Grizzlies had the second-best record in the NBA during the 2021-22 season, right? And we can certainly agree that this iteration of the Grizzlies is better, as Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Desmond Bane have taken massive leaps forward. Further, they are deeper than they have been in the past few seasons, with guards/wings like Marcus Smart, Luke Kennard, Vince Williams Jr., and G.G. Jackson to complement them.
Brandon Clarke is back from his Achilles injury and looks pogo stick-like, per usual, and Jay Huff is a diamond in the rough. Jaylen Wells also looks to be another incredible second round steal for Kleiman and Co and could provide valuable minutes immediately. Not to mention, rookie Zach Edey (best ROTY odds right now) has looked fantastic in the preseason and should fit like a glove next to Triple J on the defensive end. The injury bug is the biggest obstacle for this Grizzlies team, but if they can stay healthy, they could definitely give this bet some life.
NBA Finals Exact Result
Oklahoma City Thunder to beat New York Knicks (+3400)
The Thunder will have the best defense in the NBA this season after exchanging Josh Giddey for Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein. On the other end, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a cemented superstar, while Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren can take turns being the second scoring option.
The entire depth chart is riddled with complementary shooters and playmakers too, so OKC truly has an answer for every question. Meanwhile, New York represents the East’s best chance at taking down Boston. They have the wing defenders to throw at the Celtics, and the two-man game of Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns should be electric.
Trae Young
To Win MVP 200-1
By Chris Baker
Trae has averaged 25 PPG every year of his career outside of his rookie season and has now averaged 10 APG in two straight seasons. He has also led an offense that has ranked top-11 in offensive rating in each of the last 4 seasons. Trae already has averaged near 30 PPG back during his sophomore year where he averaged 29.6 PPG on slightly above average efficiency. With De’jounte Murray gone, there is a clear path for Trae Young to post a career high usage rate and hit 30 PPG and 11 APG at least. If the Hawks surprise to the upside and make the playoffs Trae will get all the credit and will likely have ridiculous numbers to boast. At 200-1 it’s worth a tiny shot.
Ja Morant
To Win Clutch Player of the Year (+2500)
I’m incredibly bullish on this Grizzlies team, which finished as the second seed in a tough Western Conference in back-to-back seasons before having the worst injury luck of any team in the league’s history last year. After missing 25 games due to a suspension and then only playing nine games before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury, Morant has plenty to prove this year, especially with all of the “best players in the NBA” lists on the internet that have him way, way too low. Out of sight, out of mind. But that’s an advantage for us.
The Grizz will be in plenty of tight games this year and Morant has proven that he can shut the door on opponents. Morant had a game-winner in his first game back from suspension last season on the road against New Orleans. He’s going to have that energy all season.
Franz Wagner
To Win Most Improved Player (+3500)
Based on recent MIP voting history, we want to target a third or fourth year player who averages 20+ points per game for the first time and makes his first All-Star appearance. Wagner’s elite driving skills give him a strong scoring foundation, and he could get to the 23-24 PPG range if his 3-ball comes around.
Meanwhile, it’s far easier to make the All-Star game in the Eastern Conference, and Orlando has a decent chance of getting two players selected given their large number of projected wins. This is the year that Wagner takes a huge leap.
Toronto Raptors
Finish 8th In Eastern Conference (+2000)
By Eric Gaston
The Toronto Raptors have made the decision to build around Scottie Barnes as their next franchise player. Barnes was named an All-Star in his third season last year, and will only improve.
Add that with a starting lineup that includes the hometown hero in RJ Barrett, who looked more efficient during his time in Toronto last season, and Immanuel Quickley, who showed what he can do as a starter in the league, this Raptors team will be very interesting to watch.
With a bench that has Bruce Brown and Davion Mitchell, who will both aid on the defensive end, the Raptors could end up being a wild card this season.
LeBron James
To Win NBA Cup MVP (+10000)
By Maltman
I’m old enough to remember last year’s NBA Cup, when the Lakers went undefeated, LeBron turned back father time, and he easily captured MVP of the first ever in-season tournament. Apparently, DraftKings has forgotten, because these odds are moving the wrong way.
The Lakers return the same roster, have a new coach with something to prove, and the format of the NBA Cup (games spread out) fits the strengths of the Lakers stars (LeBron James and Anthony Davis).
We just watched those two dominate the Olympics with a similar spread out schedule, and the Lakers open with the two weakest teams in their group and finish with Oklahoma City at home, who they played particularly well against last season.
Steph Curry
To Make His 4,000th Career 3-Pointer at Houston Rockets (2/13/25) or Before (+20000)
By Maltman
Stephen Curry is 253 threes away from hitting this mark, which is a ton of threes for anyone not named Stephen Curry. It’s unclear how many games or how often Steph will play this season, but last year he hit his 253rd three in the Warriors 54th game of the season, which would be on February 12th this year.
If Steph is at all healthy this year, and plays most of the early games, he has at least a 7.6% chance to get there by the game against the Rockets, which puts this super high EV. These odds are too long, and I’m not sure DraftKings is taking into account the two extra games NBA teams will play during the NBA Cup which aren’t currently on the schedule.
To Win Coach of the Year (+4500)Charles Lee
Charles Lee comes over from the Celtics championship staff who prioritized playing Game Theory Optimal basketball. This is a terminology from the poker space about always seeking the mathematical edge in the decision making – which in the hoops sense meant a relentless 3-point attack.
With the Hornets looking to move away from being a laughing stock, let's see if Lee can get this team clicking quickly and winning with offense. LaMelo Ball is healthy, Brandon Miller is developing into a valuable wing, the worry is depth and rim protection, which comes with a 45:1 longshot. If he can sure up some weaknesses with scheme, his name will be a buzz.
To Win NBA Cup Tournament (+3500)
Houston Rockets
Despite being in the better conference, West Group A is probably the weakest group in the NBA Cup due to Kawhi Leonard uncertainty, my general lack of trust in the Kings and the potential for the new-look Wolves to need time to mesh. That gives them a better chance of coming out of the group stage, and once you’re on to the elimination round, your chances are exponentially better.
I’d normally look to back a better offensive team since point differential is a factor in advancing, but the Rockets are a great bet at 35:1 with such a vulnerable group and +300 for Group Winner isn’t a bad look either.
