Tonight, we have 3 best bets on the hardwood, spanning three different matchups! So, without further ado, let's get to my NBA picks and predictions for Thursday, March 6.
NBA Picks, Predictions, Odds, Expert Bets for Thursday, March 6
- Lakers -3.5 (-105) vs. NYK
- Bulls +7.5 (-108) @ ORL
- Pelicans ML (+154) vs. HOU
Knicks vs. Lakers
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 231 -110o / -110u | +136 |
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 231 -110o / -110u | -162 |
What I love is when your projection doesn’t think that a hot team that has been unstoppable is favored by enough. That’s a great feeling.
I make this Lakers -3.5 and love the spot.
Relevant trends:
- Since The Trade, the Lakers are 9th in offense. This season, the Knicks are 29th in defense against top 10 offenses, with a -3 spread differential.
- Since the Trade, the Lakers are No.1 in defensive rating. This season, the Knicks are 8-13 straight up with a -4.2 spread differential against top-10 defensive teams.
- Overall, the Knicks are 6-11 SU with a -6.9 spread differential against teams top-10 in point differential. They get vanquished by good teams.
From a basketball perspective, the Knicks want to get to their pick-and-roll game with Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns. With Jaxson Hayes at center and playing more mobile wings, the Lakers have been able to switch things a lot easier, which is the best way to defend it.
The Lakers have been able to cover for their defensive liabilities significantly better than the Knicks have.
Rui Hachimura being out is a problem; it creates the need for Dalton Knecht to play, which the Knicks can take advantage of, but New York hasn’t been elite at hunting out those weaknesses.
For the Lakers offensively, the Knicks are really good at containing threes, and that’s been a huge part of the Lakers’ identity since the trade. The Lakers are just 23rd in points in the paint since The Trade, where the Knicks have real weaknesses.
I lean a little bit towards a Lakers team total under, but the Knicks defense may prove to be the weaker component.
Pick: Lakers -3.5 (-105)
Bulls vs. Magic
| Bulls Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -108 | 217.5 -112o / -108u | +235 |
| Magic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -112 | 217.5 -112o / -108u | -290 |
This line just isn’t representative of where you need to power rate the Magic without Jalen Suggs. Orlando is 10-18 ATS (9-19 SU) without Suggs this season, including 6-10 at home and 6-10 as a favorite.
Suggs is just too necessary for providing some structure and balance to the Magic offense so that even against the Bulls, they don’t have what they need. Chicago has some guys playing well, like Coby White, Jalen Smith, and Talen Horton-Tucker. They hang in this one.
Pick: Bulls +7.5 (-108)
Rockets vs. Pelicans
| Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -105 | 231 -112o / -108u | -185 |
| Pelicans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -115 | 231 -112o / -108u | +154 |
Little bit of a shot, but I don’t like how the Rockets are playing at all. 5-9 since Feb 1 and below .500 ATS since Jan 1. Pelicans have looked a bit more spry with Zion dominating and the Rockets don’t have a good physical matchup to slow him down, which puts them in rotation.
The Rockets’ offense has taken a nosedive after briefly climbing into a top-ten ranking, they’re 26th since February 1st. The Pelicans’ defense is awful, but so is Houston’s offense. The Rockets' defense is elite, but the Pelicans' offense is looking better. I’ll take a shot on the moneyline for a division upset.
Pick: Pelicans ML (+154)
