You smell that? That's the aroma of NBA basketball returning in the air! Yes, ladies and gentlemen we have finally gotten to the regular season once again. Now that the wait is over, let's get back to our usual program, shall we?
On Tuesday night, we have a NBA on TNT doubleheader with the New York Knicks (50-32 last season) visit the defending champs, the Boston Celtics (64-18) for a 7:30 p.m. ET matchup at TD Garden. The Knicks hope to spoil the Celtics' (currently -6 favorites) night as they hang banner No. 18 in the rafters.
Following, Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves (currently -1 favorites) step foot into Crypto.com Arena to face off against LeBron James (who's entering his 22nd season) and the Los Angeles Lakers (+1) at 10 p.m. ET.
With a new season on deck, our experts are all over the NBA predictions for the matchups ahead as we dive into our 11 best bets and picks for Tuesday, October 22.
NBA Picks, Predictions
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  | 10 P.M. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Best NBA Bets Tonight
- Karl-Anthony Towns Over 21.5 Points
- Celtics to Cover the Spread
- Jrue Holiday First Celtics Basket
- Celtics Team Total Over 113.5
- Celtics -3 In First Half
- Jalen Brunson Under 28.5 Points
- Lakers Moneyline
Knicks vs. Celtics Picks
Player Prop Pick #1 for Knicks vs. Celtics
By Joe Dellera
The New York Knicks are diving into the new year with Jalen Brunson as the clear head of the snake in this take on heliocentrism. With the acquisition of Karl-Anthony Towns, aka KAT, aka Bodega KAT, aka the Big Purr, this offense is going to be high octane while optimizing the spacing between these two stars.
While it’s pre-season, there are some key takeaways from the Knicks’ gameplay. One of which is that the Brunson – KAT Pick and Roll will be a featured component of this offense. Per Tommy Beer (@TommyBeer), Brunson and KAT ran 68 pick-and-rolls during the preseason and no other pair of teammates ran more than 42 P&R’s and those PnRs resulted in an excellent 1.320 points per possession.
1.320 points per possession on those JB/KAT pick-and-rolls
which is ridiculously efficient https://t.co/lZSl0aR8CD
— Tommy Beer (@TommyBeer) October 19, 2024
KAT averaged roughly 0.71 points per minute during the preseason, which was admittedly against some weaker defenses (aside from Minnesota); however, this is an offensive spot where he should cook with Brunson’s gravity and his ability to return to playing the 5. Last season, when KAT played alongside Gobert, he saw a 5.82 points per 100 possessions reduction – he averaged 30.8 with Gobert, and 36.7 without him. The spacing matters.
When the Wolves and Celtics played last year in January, neither Gobert nor Porzingis played. In that spot, KAT lit them up for 25 points, 13 rebounds, and 6 assists and that was without a true PG running the offense. Now, he’s paired with Brunson in the opener where Boston will be without Porzingis, and he should see plenty of minutes against Luke Kornet and even Xavier Tillman.
I’m backing KAT in his New York debut.
Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 21.5 Points
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Total Bet on Knicks vs. Celtics
The Knicks were dead last in pace last season. They've been in the bottom two all but once in the Tom Thibodeau era. The Celtics were around the bottom ten in each of the last two seasons. Kristaps Porzingis is out. Karl-Anthony Towns doesn't exactly play basketball like Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone. Mikal Bridges isn't really Noah Lyles or Kenny Bednarek either.
This game should be slow paced, should have a playoff feel, and if the officiating from late last year carries over, then we shouldn't expect a ton of offense out the gate.
I like the under here in a potential Eastern Conference Playoff preview.
Pick: Under 221.5
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Spread Pick for Knicks vs. Celtics
Early in the season, I like to prioritize continuity over the flashy new upgrade when it comes to handicapping and never more-so than Opening Night.
The Celtics are without their stretch big, Kristaps Porzingis, but the rest of their 2024 championship squad is back and they have depth at the center position. Al Horford, Xavier Tillman and Luke Kornet should fill in for Porzingis well enough against a team that has a dominant force in Karl-Anthony Towns, but very minimal depth beyond him now that Precious Achiuwa is out through the first week of November.
The KAT-Jalen Brunson pick-and-roll has been lethal in preseason so far, but I think it takes a few weeks for the team as a whole to gel. Even then, I'm low on the Knicks depth. Celtics should win this one easily, so I'll risk a half-unit on the moneyline and bet Boston down to -6.
Pick: Celtics -5.5
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First Basket Bet for Knicks vs. Celtics
Jrue Holiday took Boston's first shot at the third largest rate last season, and Kristaps Porzingis (2nd largest rate) is out for this contest.
New York has the defensive wings to hound the Jays, while Holiday can attack Jalen Brunson.
Pick: Jrue Holiday First Celtics Basket (+410)
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Over/Under Pick for Knicks vs. Celtics
The Celtics have come out in the preseason shooting 3 pointers at an even higher rate than expected.
The Knicks on the flip side are doing something similar with the recent addition of Karl-Anthony Towns. The amount of space and 3-point volume in this game should lead to an over spot.
This line opened at 220.5 and has taken steam up to 221.5, where I still feel comfortable playing this line.
Pick: Over 221.5 (-105)
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Team Total Prediction for Knicks vs. Celtics
By Chris Baker
The Celtics broke the record for offensive rating last season (123.2) and they have brought their entire team back and added sniper Baylor Scheierman in the draft.
The Knicks will be a good defense but the absence of a real center is going to hurt their rim-protection. I’m also expecting the Knicks to be a step-slow with their rotations and communication and you can’t afford to be even a half step-slow against this Celtics offense which will play 5 three point shooters at all times.
The Celtics will hunt Brunson and force the Knicks into long rotations all night. This is not the same Knick defense as last year which featured guys like Isaiah Hartenstein and Mitchell Robinson anchoring it at all times.
I think they start the season slower on that end and this is the worst possible opening night matchup you could hope for so I will trust the best offense in the league on their homecourt against a defense featuring 2 new starters.
Pick: Celtics Team Total Over 113.5
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First Half Bet for Knicks vs. Celtics
By Eric Gaston
This pick is due to the Knicks starting lineup needing to completely gel as team and build chemistry. On banner night, the Celtics are going into this matchup with continuity and each player knows what to expect from the other.
It might take some time for Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges to get comfortable in the season opener.
Pick: Celtics -3 In First Half
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Player Prop Pick for Knicks vs. Celtics
Jalen Brunson should have plenty of 30-point games, and numerous overs this season. And really, he's one of my favorite players in the league, easily.
But to start the year in Boston against Jrue Holiday and Derrick White? I think this number is a tad high.
Brunson went under in three of five games against Boston last year, and the two overs came without Julius Randle after December of 2023. Brunson is awesome and a top whatever player in the NBA, but this match-up is a difficult one out the gate, in a game that I think will be friendlier to Karl-Anthony Towns from a player prop perspective (he's at 20.5 points as of this writing) and a game that I like the under for. Open to being wrong, as always, but this is where I'm at on opening night.
Pick: Jalen Brunson Under 28.5 Points
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Wolves vs. Lakers Picks
Player Prop Bet for Timberwolves vs. Lakers
By Joe Dellera
The Lakers open the season against the Minnesota Timberwolves and Rudy Gobert. Anthony Davis should excel in this spot.
Gobert is a player who plays the majority of his defense in a drop. Since Gobert joined the Wolves, AD has torched him going for 38, 38, 31, and 33 points with one game ending at just 4 in 12 minutes due to injury.
I wrote at length about a potential swing in his shot profile in my Player Prop Forecast involving more 3's at the expense of some long 2s which would increase his overall offensive ceiling.
Here, this line is a touch low for me, and I’ll back AD to exceed 24.5 points in a game where the Lakers should have the edge.
Pick: Anthony Davis Over 24.5 Points
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Prediction for Timberwolves vs. Lakers
We have another instance of continuity versus a new-look team. The Wolves two-big lineup was effective against the Lakers in the past, but those lineup possibilities are gone with the Karl-Anthony Towns trade. I think this iteration of the Wolves could work eventually, but there will certainly be growing pains given the lack of spacing from Julius Randle as well as his need to have the ball in order to create shots for himself and others.
The Lakers have been a generally boring team and the LeBron James Lakers have struggled on Opening Nights, but we know he gets up for the marquee matchups more broadly. I have the Lakers as small favorites here, so I'll bet them at even money to beat a team that could take some time to get comfortable. I'll go smaller on this play, since I don't have as big an edge compared to Celtics.
Pick: Lakers Moneyline +100
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Moneyline Pick for Timberwolves vs. Lakers
By Maltman
For the past 7 seasons, LeBron James and the Lakers have played on opening night. They've been favored, underdogs, and pick 'ems. Every single year since LeBron has been there, they have lost their season opener. LeBron is playing for the long haul and the season opener is usually against a team that has more motivation and more to prove on opening night.
The same thing is happening tonight: Minnesota is coming in off a conference finals appearance, after having made a big trade, and people discounting their performance last year. I'm expecting a big game from Julius Randle and Anthony Edwards, and the Timberwolves defense to still be good. I'm counting on the Lakers to make it 8 straight. Betting .25u on the Timberwolves at -110.
Pick: Timberwolves -110
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