You smell that? That's the aroma of NBA basketball returning in the air! Yes, ladies and gentlemen we have finally gotten to the regular season once again. Now that the wait is over, let's get back to our usual program, shall we?
On Tuesday night, we have a NBA on TNT doubleheader with the New York Knicks (50-32 last season) visit the defending champs, the Boston Celtics (64-18) for a 7:30 p.m. ET matchup at TD Garden. The Knicks (+5.5 underdogs) hope to spoil the Celtics (currently -5.5 favorites) night as they hang banner No. 18 in the rafters.
Following, Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves (currently -1.5 favorites) step foot into Crypto.com Arena to face off against LeBron James (who's entering his 22nd season) and the Los Angeles Lakers (+1.5) a 10 p.m. ET.
With a new season on deck, our experts are all over the NBA predictions for the matchups ahead as we dive into our 11 best bets and picks for Tuesday, October 22.
NBA Best Bets for Opening Night on Tuesday, October 22
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Joe Dellera's Player Prop Pick for Knicks vs. Celtics
By Joe Dellera
The New York Knicks are diving into the new year with Jalen Brunson as the clear head of the snake in this take on heliocentrism. With the acquisition of Karl-Anthony Towns, aka KAT, aka Bodega KAT, aka the Big Purr, this offense is going to be high octane while optimizing the spacing between these two stars.
While it’s pre-season, there are some key takeaways from the Knicks’ gameplay. One of which is that the Brunson – KAT Pick and Roll will be a featured component of this offense. Per Tommy Beer (@TommyBeer), Brunson and KAT ran 68 pick-and-rolls during the preseason and no other pair of teammates ran more than 42 P&R’s and those PnRs resulted in an excellent 1.320 points per possession.
1.320 points per possession on those JB/KAT pick-and-rolls
which is ridiculously efficient https://t.co/lZSl0aR8CD
— Tommy Beer (@TommyBeer) October 19, 2024
KAT averaged roughly 0.71 points per minute during the preseason, which was admittedly against some weaker defenses (aside from Minnesota); however, this is an offensive spot where he should cook with Brunson’s gravity and his ability to return to playing the 5. Last season, when KAT played alongside Gobert, he saw a 5.82 points per 100 possessions reduction – he averaged 30.8 with Gobert, and 36.7 without him. The spacing matters.
When the Wolves and Celtics played last year in January, neither Gobert nor Porzingis played. In that spot, KAT lit them up for 25 points, 13 rebounds, and 6 assists and that was without a true PG running the offense. Now, he’s paired with Brunson in the opener where Boston will be without Porzingis, and he should see plenty of minutes against Luke Kornet and even Xavier Tillman.
I’m backing KAT in his New York debut.
Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 21.5 Points
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Bryan Fonseca's Total Bet on Knicks vs. Celtics
The Knicks were dead last in pace last season. They've been in the bottom two all but once in the Tom Thibodeau era. The Celtics were around the bottom ten in each of the last two seasons. Kristaps Porzingis is out. Karl-Anthony Towns doesn't exactly play basketball like Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone. Mikal Bridges isn't really Noah Lyles or Kenny Bednarek either.
This game should be slow paced, should have a playoff feel, and if the officiating from late last year carries over, then we shouldn't expect a ton of offense out the gate.
I like the under here in a potential Eastern Conference Playoff preview.
Pick: Under 221.5
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Andrew O'Connor-Watts' Spread Pick for Knicks vs. Celtics
Early in the season, I like to prioritize continuity over the flashy new upgrade when it comes to handicapping and never more-so than Opening Night.
The Celtics are without their stretch big, Kristaps Porzingis, but the rest of their 2024 championship squad is back and they have depth at the center position. Al Horford, Xavier Tillman and Luke Kornet should fill in for Porzingis well enough against a team that has a dominant force in Karl-Anthony Towns, but very minimal depth beyond him now that Precious Achiuwa is out through the first week of November.
The KAT-Jalen Brunson pick-and-roll has been lethal in preseason so far, but I think it takes a few weeks for the team as a whole to gel. Even then, I'm low on the Knicks depth. Celtics should win this one easily, so I'll risk a half-unit on the moneyline and bet Boston down to -6.
Pick: Celtics -5.5
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Braxton Reynold's First Basket Bet for Knicks vs. Celtics
Pick: Jrue Holiday First Celtics Basket (+410)
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Michael Fiddle's Total Target for Knicks vs. Celtics
Pick: Over 221.5 (-105)
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Chris Baker's Total Bet for Knicks vs. Celtics
By Chris Baker
Pick: Celtics Team Total Over 113.5
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Eric Gaston's First Half Bet for Knicks vs. Celtics
By Eric Gaston
Pick: Celtics -3 In First Half
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Bryan Fonseca's Player Prop Pick for Knicks vs. Celtics
Jalen Brunson should have plenty of 30-point games, and numerous overs this season. And really, he's one of my favorite players in the league, easily.
But to start the year in Boston against Jrue Holiday and Derrick White? I think this number is a tad high.
Brunson went under in three of five games against Boston last year, and the two overs came without Julius Randle after December of 2023. Brunson is awesome and a top whatever player in the NBA, but this match-up is a difficult one out the gate, in a game that I think will be friendlier to Karl-Anthony Towns from a player prop perspective (he's at 20.5 points as of this writing) and a game that I like the under for. Open to being wrong, as always, but this is where I'm at on opening night.
Pick: Jalen Brunson Under 28.5 Points
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Joe Dellera's Player Prop Bet for Timberwolves vs. Lakers
By Joe Dellera
The Lakers open the season against the Minnesota Timberwolves and Rudy Gobert. Anthony Davis should excel in this spot.
Gobert is a player who plays the majority of his defense in a drop. Since Gobert joined the Wolves, AD has torched him going for 38, 38, 31, and 33 points with one game ending at just 4 in 12 minutes due to injury.
I wrote at length about a potential swing in his shot profile in my Player Prop Forecast involving more 3's at the expense of some long 2s which would increase his overall offensive ceiling.
Here, this line is a touch low for me, and I’ll back AD to exceed 24.5 points in a game where the Lakers should have the edge.
Pick: Anthony Davis Over 24.5 Points
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Andrew O'Connor-Watts' ML Bet for Timberwolves vs. Lakers
We have another instance of continuity versus a new-look team. The Wolves two-big lineup was effective against the Lakers in the past, but those lineup possibilities are gone with the Karl-Anthony Towns trade. I think this iteration of the Wolves could work eventually, but there will certainly be growing pains given the lack of spacing from Julius Randle as well as his need to have the ball in order to create shots for himself and others.
The Lakers have been a generally boring team and the LeBron James Lakers have struggled on Opening Nights, but we know he gets up for the marquee matchups more broadly. I have the Lakers as small favorites here, so I'll bet them at even money to beat a team that could take some time to get comfortable. I'll go smaller on this play, since I don't have as big an edge compared to Celtics.
Pick: Lakers Moneyline +100
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Maltman's Best Bet for Timberwolves vs. Lakers
By Maltman
Pick: Timberwolves -110
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