The idea behind this column is to provide a weekly betting guide for the weekend’s marquee matchups before lines come out. I use projections in my handicapping and I thought I’d share them for the weekend slates when there may not be as much access to NBA betting content.
For the Friday games with lines already out, I’ll react to what we have and give out plays based on the lines, but for Saturday and Sunday, with lines forthcoming, I’ll provide thresholds and projections so you have the information you need when these lines drop.
As always, follow me in the app to see my official plays (@nbaWatts).
NBA Friday Picks & Predictions
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 227 -110o / -110u | +165 |
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 227 -110o / -110u | -200 |
Spread: Knicks -5.5
Total: 227.5
Moneyline: Knicks -238 / Pacers +192
My Target Prices
Pacers: +7.5 or better / Knicks: -2 or better
Over: 221 or better / Under: 226.5 or better
Pick: Knicks Team Total Under 116.5
New York will look to exact revenge tonight after losing to Indiana in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. But the Knicks look a lot different than when these teams met back in May. The departures of Julius Randle, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Donte DiVincenzo mean a loss of identity to some degree.
Karl-Anthony Towns is one of the best offensive big men in the league, but without Hartenstein or Mitchell Robinson–who’s out until at least January with an ankle injury–they lack the defensive pedigree that was a staple of last year’s team.
The Knicks' big advantage over the Pacers last season was their rebounding–a weakness of Indiana’s that wasn’t solved with any offseason acquisitions. But without New York’s frontcourt depth, the margins for New York should be even thinner. They ostensibly got better at 3-point shooting by bringing in Mikal Bridges and Towns, but Indiana allowed the fewest 3-pointers of any team in the league last season.
The top-end talent improved for New York post-Bridges and Towns trades, but it will take some time for everyone to gel and a team like Indiana with more continuity is the value side here. I make the team total for New York just 113.4 and I see value on the under down to 114.5.
Bonus Play: OG Anunoby Under 1.5 3s (+112)
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 226.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 226.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
Spread: Lakers -1.5
Total: 226.5
Moneyline: Lakers -120 / Suns +105
My Target Prices
Suns: +7.5 or better / Lakers: -2 or better
Over: 230 or better / Under: 235.5 or better
Pick: Lakers -1.5
Kevin Durant and the Phoenix Suns travel to Los Angeles to play the Lakers and one of these teams will go home 1-1. The injury report is already busy for both teams, but Phoenix has the more meaningful question marks with Bradley Beal (shoulder),
Grayson Allen (achilles) and Josh Okogie (hamstring) all at risk of missing Friday’s game. Okogie has already been ruled out, but other two are listed as probable. Regardless of whether or not Beal or Allen play, I like the Lakers in this spot.
The Lakers first game they played a Wolves team that’s still figuring out how to play together. And yet, the Lakers were just 5-of-30 from beyond the arc (16.7%). Anything can happen night-to-night, but a worse shooting night than what we saw opening night would be surprising.
I also like the matchup for Anthony Davis who looked utterly dominant on opening night against the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Rudy Gobert. Jusuf Nurkic has been great defensively, but faster, finesse bigs like Davis have been more successful against him. Davis recorded a double-double in every game last season, save for a blowout loss by the Lakers in which he only played 31 minutes.
NBA Saturday Picks & Predictions
My Target Prices
Clippers: +13.5 or better / Nuggets: -8 or better
Over: 215.5 or better / Under: 221 or better
Lean: Under / Nuggets
The Nuggets looked rough on opening night against the Thunder. Nikola Jokic had an unsurprising triple-double, but it was relatively unremarkable, at least from a scoring standpoint. Jokic grabbed 12 boards and dished out 13 assists, but scored just 16 points on 6-of-13 shooting from the field. And his unremarkable scoring night was a bellwether for the rest of the offense. Christian Braun tied Jokic for Nuggets leading scorer with everyone else shooting a combined 21-of-70.
Jamal Murray didn’t do anything to beat the allegations that he’s playing through injury, or worse, isn’t good anymore. On top of the starter’s issues, the lack of depth continues to plague Denver with Peyton Watson (-13), Strawther (-23) and Russell Westbrook (-24) all giving rough showings leading to just 87 points scored.
Meanwhile the Clippers are playing James Harden ball, and as offense-focused as that may be, it means a lot of half-court possessions on offense, which slows the pace down significantly. We’ll have to wait for the number, but I’m guessing we get another total in the low 220’s or higher in which case I’ll most likely be playing an under here.
My Price Targets
Magic: +4.5 or better / Grizzlies: +1 or better
Over: 209.5 or better / Under: 215 or better
Lean: OVER
Jonathan Isaac is a game-time decision for the Magic ahead of Friday’s matchup against the Nets, so we'll see if he plays either Friday or Saturday against the Grizzlies. With him in, I make the Grizzlies closer to -2, but with him out, it’s more like -3 and I like to give at least a 2- to 2.5-point runway between my projections and the actual line.
I doubt I’ll be in any position to back the Magic on Saturday. It’s tough to give too much credit to either team in this matchup though. The Magic's victory against the Heat was statistically impressive, but the Heat pulled the plug early in the third quarter where the Magic outscored them 39-18. Paolo Banchero had an efficient scoring night (33 points on 12-of-24 shooting and 4-of-8 from 3-point range), as did Franz Wagner (23 points on 10-of-16 from the floor and 3-of-6 from 3). It's a single-game sample size but the offense looked a lot better compared to last season.
Meanwhile, the Grizzlies came out with intensity in their win against the Jazz, but let Utah back in the second half. Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart and Zach Edey all struggled and the only one I don’t have any questions about is Bane. Smart looks to be on his way downhill, while Edey just might be too slow to be viable for long stretches in the NBA, but it’s still too early to tell for sure.
Because of the Magic offense and the Grizzlies pace, I lean over, but it’s tough to say without lines just yet.
My Price Targets
Spread: Kings: +4 or better / Lakers: +1 or better
Over: 228 or better / Under: 233.5 or better
Lean: Kings
The Lakers will play in their first back-to-back of the NBA regular season on Saturday, but they won’t have to travel. Even still, this early into the season, I hardly take it into consideration. But the Kings have had the upper hand in the last five games, including eight of the last nine meetings going back to January 2022. I can’t say that I fully understand it, but Domantas Sabonis absolutely owns Davis, averaging 18.5 points, 17.5 rebounds and 8.5 assists in four games over the last two seasons.
The Kings gave the Timberwolves a run for their money on Thursday night, but start the season 0-1 all the same. Fox has been in more of a playmaker role with Murray crashing the boards like he hasn’t in the past, both finishing with 11 in their respective categories. Sabonis with a relatively quiet night based on his standards, only grabbing eight rebounds and one assist.
Hopefully his relatively lackluster performance means we get a discount on his points + rebounds line.
Bonus Play: Domantas Sabonis Over Rebounds + Assists
