With two weeks until the NBA playoffs, things are getting tight in seeding races, playoff races, and tanking matchups. But there’s still value on the board. Here are my two NBA picks for this Friday.
NBA Picks Tonight, Predictions, Expert Bets for Friday, April 4
Suns vs. Celtics
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -105 | 226.5 -110o / -110u | +660 |
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -115 | 226.5 -110o / -110u | -1000 |
Suns road games are 63% to the over, while Celtics home games are 54% to the over. Phoenix is 30th in defensive rating over the last two weeks, the wheels have come completely off.
Kevin Durant is out with an ankle injury. In games in which Durant misses this season, the over in Suns games is 11-3.
We’re running out of games to bet on the wild splits between the Celtics at home and on the road. The Celtics are 2nd in defensive rating on the road but fall to just 15th at home. That wild swing has given us great chances to fade Boston on the spread at home this season.
Unfortunately, the Celtics are coming off a loss to the Heat. Boston is 15-4 ATS this season after a loss. You do not get in front of that train. The under is 11-8 in those games as Boston tightens up defensively, but just 6-5 at home. Again, we see those home-road splits in favor of an over lean.
The Suns offense has been consistently good; they’re not dependent on Durant. One of their key problems is that they don’t really have an “engine” to the offense, even with how good Devin Booker is. So while that definitely won’t improve, it won’t collapse without KD, either.
I’ll take the over.
Pick: Over 226.5 (-110)
Pistons vs. Raptors
| Pistons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11 -112 | 227 -110o / -110u | -625 |
| Raptors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11 -108 | 227 -110o / -110u | +455 |
Toronto is 29-19 (60%) ATS after a loss. Despite tanking, they are 14-8 ATS after the All-Star break. The Raptors are 18-13 ATS after losing the last matchup to their opponent. Nothing like taking a tanking team on a back-to-back in April.
