Here are a few plays for when the NBA resumes action Wednesday night.
Magic vs Pacers Prediction
| Magic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+6.5 -108 | 226 -109 / -112 | +215 |
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-6.5 -113 | 226 -109 / -112 | -265 |
The completely movable object meets the extremely resistible force.
The Magic have cracked 100 just once in the four games since Paolo Banchero was injured. Their season average for points above the expected team total went from +5 to -2 in four games. Their offense has fallen off a cliff, fell an indeterminate amount of time, and crashed and burned.
But this is the Pacers.
Across the last two seasons, a bottom-10 offense has averaged 109 points per game or fewer. In games the past two seasons with the Pacers against teams averaging less than 109 points per game, the over was 4-2, with the opponent averaging 118 points per game.
Quite simply, there is no floor regarding the Pacers' defense. They will make anyone, and I mean anyone, look good.
Banchero had 50 in the matchup between these teams earlier this season, but he also had just 24 in a game that went over last November. By hook or by crook, I project this at 230, and I'll play the over.
Pick: Magic-Pacers over 226 (-109, BetRivers)
Cavaliers vs Pelicans NBA Pick
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 223.5 -110 / -110 | -300 |
| Pelicans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 223.5 -110 / -110 | +245 |
Sure, you can go the other way here.
The Cavaliers are due for a loss as one of two unbeaten teams left in the league. The question is if it will come against a Pelicans team that is broken and lost.
There's no Dejounte Murray, Herb Jones, or Trey Murphy for New Orleans, and they don't know how to get by on either end currently. Zion Williamson can't score (shooting less than 50 percent from the field), and the wings can't defend.
Meanwhile, the Cavs have a dominant inside duo in Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen and shooters galore to light up the Pelicans and dig them into a math hole. (The Pelicans allow 14 3-point makes per game this season compared to making just 11 per night.)
Don't try and catch a falling knife — the Cavs roll.
Pick: Cavaliers -7 (-110, FanDuel)
Spurs vs Rockets Best Bet
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+7 -113 | 214 -109 / -112 | +215 |
| Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-7 -108 | 214 -109 / -112 | -265 |
I might be a sucker here.
The Rockets are 3-1 straight up and ATS against division opponents this season and have gone 1-1 against the Spurs already.
But I have the Rockets only favored by two points here. Eight points decided the first two matchups between them. The Spurs have shown they can hang. I do think this is just too many points for a Rockets team that has an inconsistent win profile.
The universe may implode when Tari Eason and Jeremy Sochan battle.
Pick: Spurs +7 (-113, BetRivers)
Lakers vs Grizzlies NBA Prediction
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 231 -110 / -110 | +105 |
| Grizzlies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 231 -110 / -110 | -125 |
I don't think you can have the Grizzlies as favorites here. It's that simple.
The market is slightly overreacting to the Lakers' losses to Toronto and Detroit. We know the Lakers are better, even if they didn't play like it.
The Lakers are inconsistent, especially in the effort department. But this team is the annoying little brother they love to smash. The Grizzlies will run their mouths and won't be able to back it up. Jaren Jackson Jr. is a marvelous defender, but Anthony Davis is like the upgraded prime version of him.
The Lakers' lack of bench size isn't as much of a problem against the Grizzlies outside of the Zach Edey minutes, and the Lakers should be able to find success offensively.
Pick: Lakers ML (+105, bet365)
