The Bucks face off against the Pacers in Game 4 of their first round Eastern Conference Playoff series on Sunday night.
A convincing 117-101 victory over the Pacers in Game 3 kept the Bucks' playoff hopes alive as they look to knot up this series at two games apiece. Gary Trent Jr. was the standout performer as he tied a Bucks franchise playoff record for 3-point field goals, sinking nine of his 12 attempts from beyond the arc.
Trent shattered his points prop of 11.5 by matching teammate Giannis Antetokounmpo with a game-high 37 points.
While predicting such a performance is never straightforward for a reserve player making his first start of the series, our props analysis will highlight another Bucks player that could continue to fall under the radar for Game 4.
Continue below for my NBA player props for Sunday, April 27.
NBA Player Props for Sunday, April 27
- AJ Green Over 8.5 Points + Assists (-115)
- Pascal Siakam Over 30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-122)
AJ Green Over 8.5 Points + Assists (-115)
Pacers vs Bucks, 9:30 p.m. ET
Bench scoring is often undervalued when it comes to player props, but Milwaukee seems to be leaning more on its non-starters this postseason than any other team. The Bucks rank first in the playoffs with 21.7 minutes off the bench and also lead in scoring with 38.7 points per game.
With Damian Lillard struggling to make an impact following his return from a blood clot that kept him sidelined, Bucks head coach Doc Rivers has to be creative to get more from his backcourt players.
AJ Green is certainly one player who can provide a spark. The Northern Iowa product is a perimeter threat as he's a career 42.1% shooter from long range. Green played at least 25 minutes in two of the three games but managed only 12.4 in Game 2 when Lillard returned and logged 37 minutes.
During these playoffs, Green is averaging 21.7 minutes, which is only slightly less than the 22.7 minutes he averaged in the regular season.
Thus, I think he's in a good spot in terms of minutes, and he hasn't done much wrong for Rivers not to trust him. Green has a points + assists prop of 8.5—a projection he's cleared in four of his last five games. He has also covered this number in four of his previous five head-to-head meetings against the Pacers.
The data suggests that when Green gets his minutes, he can be an extremely effective player. Bench players also tend to play better at home, and Green is no different, considering he has exceeded this line in 23 of his 36 games this season at the Fiserv Forum.
Pick: AJ Green Over 8.5 Points + Assists (-115)
Pascal Siakam Over 30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-122)
Pacers vs Bucks, 9:30 p.m. ET
If we turn to the Pacers, I'll turn to one of their starters for my second player prop. The Pacers desperately needed a proven scorer to help take some pressure off their young point guard, Tyrese Haliburton. As a result, Indiana acquired Pascal Siakam from Toronto as part of a three-team trade before signing him to a four-year deal ahead of this season.
Siakam has a points + rebounds + assists prop of 30.5 — a number he has covered in eight of his last 10 games when facing a bottom-10 defense for rebounds allowed. Since the Bucks ranked 22nd in rebounds, they fit our criteria for a bottom-10 team in this category.
Moreover, it's worth noting that Siakam has also cleared this line in seven straight games against Milwaukee.
Given his playoff experience as a seasoned veteran and NBA champion, Siakam plays a vital role in the Pacers' offense and boasts the highest usage rate (24.2%) of any player on the team.
He's a perfect complement to Haliburton, who looks to create for his teammates, and I don't see any reason for the Pacers to shift the offense away from Siakam.
Pick: Pascal Siakam Over 30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-122)
