After going 3/3 last night, there are only two props that caught my eye today. One feels like the books have underrated the emergence of a player who is back due to injury and played more minutes than expected last week. The other is an over prop for a veteran player who is off to a great start this season for the Charlotte Hornets.
We'll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I'm playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Mitchell Robinson, Under 8.5 Rebounds + Assists (+110)
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | Knicks -7.5 |
| Time | TV | 6 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
This may be a little risky because Mitchell Robinson is averaging 8.6 rebounds per game and 1.2 assists per game. He is also averaging 28.6 minutes per game and shooting 81.3% from the field, which are both career highs for Robinson.
I like this under prop because Nerlens Noel is back in action for the Knicks after being out for most of the season due to injury. Noel has ramped up his playing time in his first two games playing 18 and then 24 minutes. In the last game, he played three more minutes than Robinson.
Robinson will remain in the starting lineup, but with the emergence of Noel, I think his minutes and production will decrease. I expect Robinson to go back to his production when he averaged 7.0 rebounds per game and 0.6 assists per game two years ago.
The Cleveland Cavaliers will be without big men Kevin Love and Lauri Markkanen tonight, but they still have twin towers Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. This will be a throwback battle down low with a handful of athletic frontcourt players. The Cavaliers rank fourth in the league as they are allowing just 33.0 defensive rebounds per game this season.
Despite Robinson starting and having a career year so far, I like the value that this prop brings, especially seeing Noel get more and more playing time. Noel is a vital part of this Knicks team defensively and should be relied on more against this massive Cavaliers front court. Noel was third last year in blocks with 2.2 per game. I think the Knicks rely on him over Robinson tonight. I would not get too greedy with this prop if it were to go down to 8.0 or 7.5.
Gordon Hayward, Over 15.5 Points (-115)
| Clippers vs. Hornets | Clippers -5.5 |
| Time | TV | 9 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
This matchup has the highest total on the NBA slate tonight with 224.5 points, and i like the value of Gordon Hayward going over 15.5 points in what should be a track meet.
The Hornets rank third in Pace this season, while the Clippers rank sixth. Both teams are going in the opposite direction lately. The Clippers have won their last three games, while the Hornets have lost their last three. However, both come into this matchup with a .500 record, and this should be competitive.
Hayward has been fantastic recently. In his last two games, Hayward is averaging 24 points per game on 16 field goal attempts per game. He has played an average of 36 minutes per game, so he will have the opportunity to exceed 15.5 points tonight. He is shooting the lights out this season as he is averaging a career-high 50.8% from the field and 49.0% from 3-point range.
With Terry Rozier back in the mix, you would think that would put a damper on Hayward's scoring, but it hasn't one bit. Rozier is struggling shooting the ball, which has made Hayward one of the primary targets on offense lately. Miles Bridges has also taken a step back lately after his ridiculous start.
Hayward should get plenty of chances to score the ball in this fast paced matchup against the Clippers. The best value on this prop is at DraftKings, but I don't mind taking this prop if it were to go up to 16.5. I really like the outlook of Hayward's matchup, and the Hornets need to score to keep up with Paul George and the Clippers tonight.
