The NBA rolls on with a five-game slate for Tuesday night. The first game tips off at 7:00 pm ET with the Milwaukee Bucks heading to Detroit to face the Pistons. With Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday still out, we're going to skip over this game to focus on the 7:30 pm ET matchup between the 5-1 Miami Heat and the Dallas Mavericks.
Jimmy Butler is playing at an All-NBA level and his assist line is very appealing tonight. Also, Dwight Powell is one of only a couple centers suiting up for the Mavericks tonight, so I see value in his rebounding prop. The last prop will feature Rudy Gobert who has a favorable matchup against the Sacramento Kings at home.
We'll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I'm playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Jimmy Butler over 5.5 assists (-120)
| Heat vs. Mavericks | Mavericks +3 |
| Time | TV | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
The Heat are scorching hot, kicking off the season with a 5-1 record and second in the Eastern Conference behind the 6-1 Chicago Bulls. Their defense has been relentless, as they’re the only team holding opponents to under 40% shooting from the field this season. They’re also first in defensive rating at 95.1.
The addition of Kyle Lowry has made all of the difference on both ends of the ball and it's helping to also bring out the best version of Jimmy Butler. Butler is averaging a career-high 25.3 points per game along with 7.0 rebounds. His assists are down but happen to be right at his current prop line of 5.5.
The perennial All-Star has gone over 5.5 assists in four of six games this season. The Heat are traveling to Dallas, but he’s also gone over 5.5 assists in each of the Heat's three road games.
Jimmy Buckets is currently second on the team in passes made per game (50.7) and potential assists per game (11.0), trailing only Kyle Lowry. The Mavericks are middle of the pack in just about every opponent defensive metric this season, and they currently rank 16th in assists allowed per game with 23.5.
Butler has been outstanding thus far, and with the Heat vying for first place, Butler’s playmaking will be on full display on Tuesday. FantasyLabs has Butler projected to play 33 minutes and our Action Labs Player Prop Tool has him tallying 6.9 assists. With a bet quality rating of 9-out-of-10, this is an over I like with an implied probability of 54%.
Dwight Powell over 5.5 rebounds (-120)
| Heat vs. Mavericks | Mavericks +3 |
| Time | TV | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
Dwight Powell falls into a great situation tonight against the Miami Heat with Kristaps Porzingis and Maxi Kleber nursing back injuries. Both are ruled out on the front-end of a back-to-back set, so Powell should step into a ton of minutes in the frontcourt.
Powell logged 33 minutes in Sunday’s contest versus the Sacramento Kings, where Porzingis didn’t play, and Kleber left after 7 minutes due to injury. His rebound line is considerably low at 5.5, considering he pulled down eight against the Kings.
Powell isn’t going to wow you statistically, but he is more than capable of getting six rebounds. When receiving 30-39 minutes throughout his career, he’s averaged 8.2 rebounds per game. When registering 20-29 minutes, he averages 5.9 rebounds per game.
Willie Cauley-Stein is the only available center on the Mavericks roster, earning minutes comparable to Powell at 17 minutes per contest. Even if they split time, Powell should conservatively see at least 24 minutes of action. The Heat allow the fewest amount of rebounds to opposing teams this season (48.1 per game,) but their All-Star big Bam Adebayo (knee bruise) remains questionable. If Bam doesn’t play, the appeal only grows.
With a tight five-game slate, I’m hunting value, and, with the injuries piling up for Dallas, the implied odds give Powell a 54% chance of exceeding his current rebounding prop. I’ll take that bet considering his success when receiving an uptick in playing time.
FantasyLabs has Powell slated to play 31.7 minutes on Tuesday night, and the Action Projections Tool has Powell grabbing 8.1 rebounds. With a bet quality rating of 10-out-of-10, I’m betting the over on his rebounding prop.
Rudy Gobert over 13.5 points (-122)
| Kings vs. Jazz | Jazz -8 |
| Time | TV | 9 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
This is a first, but Rudy Gobert should feast on the Sacramento Kings. The NBA Player of the Week for the Western Conference comes into Tuesday night averaging a career-best 16.3 points per game this season. He's gone over his points prop in five of six games, a hit rate of 83%.
Year in and year out, Sacramento continues to be horrendous at protecting the paint. They're allowing the third-most points in the paint this season at 52.3 per game. Gobert is third in the NBA in paint touches per game with 11.2 while shooting 72% from the field. However, what's even more surprising is Gobert's ability to sink his free throws.
He's averaging 8.3 free throw attempts per game and making them at a 72% clip. This is a welcoming sign for Gobert backers as he shot 62.3% on 5.3 free throw attempts per game last season. The Kings are allowing opponents to score 15.6% of their points from the free-throw line this year (23rd in the NBA), and Sacramento allows opposing centers to score 25.2 points per game.
The risk here lies in the game script as the Jazz are 8.5-point favorites at home versus a team that ranks top-four in Pace this season. But Gobert looks like he's brought his Olympic-style play into the 2021-22 season and has no signs of slowing down.
FantasyLabs projects Gobert to receive 32 minutes tonight, and when he sees 30-39 minutes in his career, he's averaging 14.2 points per game. He's locked in, and Richaun Holmes and Pop Smoke, I mean Tristan Thompson, won't be able to contain him.
Our Action projection tool has Gobert totaling 15.7 points, and I like the over here as well. If you want plus money, I will play this as high as 14.5.
