The NBA was complete madness on Wednesday. Chris Paul entered COVID-19 health and safety protocols, a couple of coaches were fired and Kawhi Leonard is out indefinitely with a “knee sprain.” All of this occurred before the actual games began.
Surprisingly, the underdogs came out on top, with the Atlanta Hawks and Los Angeles Clippers winning outright to take 3-2 leads over their respective top-seeded opponents.
The NBA Playoffs continue to be unpredictable, and who knows what’s in store for Thursday's lone contest. Game 6 between the Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks is the only matchup on the schedule, with the Bucks facing elimination. The drama continues!
We witnessed greatness Tuesday, with Kevin Durant delivering a historical performance with 49 points, 17 rebounds and 10 assists in the Nets' victory. Not only was he the first player in playoff history to drop a 45/15/10 line, but he also put Brooklyn up 3-2 in the series.
Despite the stunning Game 5 loss to a Kyrie Irving-less squad and a hobbled James Harden, Las Vegas has installed Milwaukee as a 5.5-point favorite in this latest meeting.
For these latest props, I’m rolling with Durant and a couple of Bucks. I’m not a big fan of Brook Lopez, but he’s proven capable of knocking down 3-pointers lately. Next, Khris Middleton will need to do it all to keep the Bucks' postseason hopes alive, so I like his rebounds lys assists line at 11.5 on the total.
And finally, I have to include a Durant play and like his chances grabbing at least 11 rebounds.
For those who are new to this article, we'll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I'm playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Brook Lopez — Over 1.5 3-Pointers (+115)
| Nets vs. Bucks | Bucks -5.5 |
| Time | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | BetMGM |
Lopez is coming off his second-best game of the series Tuesday, putting up 15 points on 6-of-10 shooting, while going 3 for 5 from beyond the arc. Unfortunately, it didn’t result in a Milwaukee victory.
Nevertheless, he’s seeing a healthy dose of minutes, averaging 35 minutes per game over the last three contests. So, he’ll likely continue to be on the floor and that’s a good sign for his outlook to hit at least two 3-pointers in Game 6.
The Bucks' center launched at least five triples in his last three games. So, the volume is there and he’s hit at least two 3-pointers in three of his previous four games against Brooklyn.
His current 3-point line stands at 1.5 with plus odds. "Splash Mountain" currently holds a plus/minus per 100 possessions of +6.0. His defense is what really keeps him on the floor, but the Bucks will need his offense to extend the series to seven games.
When assessing the Nets’ defense versus the 3-ball, it allows opponents to shoot 34% from the corner versus 28% above the break. Brooklyn is letting up 7.6 corner 3’s per game in the conference semifinals. Per Cleaning the Glass, Lopez ranks in the 81st percentile, with 11% of his 3-point attempts coming from the corner in the postseason.
All this to say, Lopez is poised to connect on at least two 3-pointers. We project he’ll make 2.0 3-pointers, and with a bet quality rating of 9 at plus odds, I’m taking the over in this spot.
Khris Middleton — Over 11.5 Rebounds + Assists (-120)
| Nets vs. Bucks | Bucks -5.5 |
| Time | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | PointsBet |
The Bucks have the second-lowest FG% in the conference semifinals leading up to this affair. One of the main contributors to their woeful shooting has been Khris Middleton. The All-Star forward is shooting 38.4% in the series, while averaging 21.8 points, 8.2 rebounds and 3.8 assists. Not all bad – which is why I have confidence that he’ll do much more than get buckets in Game 6.
His rebounds + assists market is 11.5. Our Action Projections tool has Middleton collecting 7.7 rebounds and 6.4 assists. With his rebound market at 7.5 and assists at 4.5 at the moment, this is trending in the right direction. For good measure, he’s cleared the 11.5 thresholds in three of five games against the Nets. And with the season on the line, he’ll need to impact the game beyond scoring.
Middleton has seen a usage rate of at least 27% in four of five games in this series. He’s shown the ability to rebound at a favorable rate, pulling down 10.2% of total rebounds while on the floor. He even had two games in this series with 13-plus rebounds, so the ceiling is high.
The assists have been the real bugaboo, though. In the regular season, Middleton accounted for a career-high 23.2% assist rate while on the floor. That number has fallen to 16.3 in the Playoffs, primarily due to the Bucks’ poor shooting against Brooklyn. He’s distributed 13 assists over his last two contests, but more telling are the opportunities.
Middleton ranks third on the team with an average of 6.4 potential assists per game against the Nets. Despite those missed opportunities, he’s generating 9.8 points per game for his teammates in the semifinals. The Bucks are only shooting 41% at home in this series, but with their backs against the wall, they should shoot better than their previous outings on their home turf.
Our Action projections tool has Middleton amassing 14.1 rebounds plus assists in Game 6. With a bet quality rating of 9, I’m betting the over on his 11.5 rebounds plus assists combo number.
Kevin Durant — Over 10.5 Rebounds (-110)
| Nets vs. Bucks | Bucks -5.5 |
| Time | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
I broke down Durant's epic performance in Game 5 and sometimes you have to ride the hot hand. While I don’t think he’ll put up close to a 50-piece special in Game 6 with 17 rebounds, his 10.5 rebound line is very attractive.
Hitting 17 rebounds is a pretty high number to replicate. All things considered, nothing is out of the realm of possibility the way Durant is playing. Irving is out again for Game 6 and maybe we see a better version of Harden? It’s too early to tell. However, it was evident from the onset in Game 5 that Harden was a couple of steps slower than usual, despite playing a whopping 46 minutes.
Anyway, back to the "Slim Reaper" and why he’ll get at least 11 rebounds. Durant’s taken on a larger role in the rebounding department lately, grabbing at least 11 rebounds in three consecutive games versus Milwaukee. His total rebounding rate is the highest of his playoff career at 12.8 percent.
As previously mentioned, the Bucks are shooting 41% at home for the series. The Nets are shooting even worse on the road at 39.5 percent. Good thing Durant will be there to scoop up the misses. He is snatching up 27.9% of defensive rebounds in this series. This also includes grabbing a team-high 14.7% of the total rebounds available.
Durant is doing it all for the Nets, playing a full 48 minutes in Game 5. With an opportunity to put the Bucks down for good, I see no reason Durant won’t continue to dominate the lion share of the rebounding opportunities.
We project Durant to secure 11.3 rebounds, and with the added narrative of potentially willing Brooklyn to an Eastern Conference final with his fellow stars injured, I can’t pass up betting on Durant.
