Friday NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks: 3 Favorite Plays for Bucks vs. Hawks, Including Clint Capela & Trae Young (June 25)

Folks, it certainly looks like we've got ourselves a series in the Eastern Conference Finals, all thanks to Trae Young.

Young has been the singular star of the NBA playoffs, a remarkable feat for a 22-year-old playing in his first postseason ever. Young has led the Hawks- to three straight road Game 1 wins. Ice Trae shushed the raucous crowd at Madison Square Garden, then knocked out Joel Embiid and the mighty 1-seed 76ers-. Now, it appears Giannis Antetokounmpo is next on his list.

Young was masterful in Game 1, so good that his presence alone is already forcing major adjustments on both ends. How can we play those adjustments to our advantage in Game 2?

For those who are new to this article, we'll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

Below, I have laid out three prop-bets that I'm playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.

NBA Player Props & Picks

Trae Young, Over 9.5 Assists (-124)

Young has sliced and diced NBA defenses in these playoffs. One moment he's pulling up from a preposterous distance and draining an ice-cold 3. The next, he's cutting into the lane and floating another shot over some poor opposing big man, and if that big man gets there in time, he's dropping another ludicrous alley-oop dime to John Collins or Clint Capela.

Defenses have had no answer for Young this postseason, and Game 1 against the Bucks was his best masterpiece thus far. He had 48 points, seven rebounds, and 11 assists, and his floater game proved to be especially deadly.

Young hit 13-of-21 of his 2s, and he had that shimmy 3 and the off-the-backboard oop to Collins. Young embarrassed the Bucks, and it's fair to assume Milwaukee will sell out tonight to make sure he doesn't drop 48 on it again.

The Bucks may be able to limit Trae's scoring — they can send double-teams or take a half-step closer to him to cut off those floaters — but they can't take away his deadly passing. In fact, their efforts to stop him from another 48 may only open up more passing lanes. Dealer's choice, really. Pick your poison.

Young is playing huge minutes lately. He's over 36 minutes in nine straight and over 40 in the last five.

During the regular season, Young recorded double-digit assists in 13-of-22 games with at least 36 minutes, averaging 11.0 APG in them and getting to at least eight in all but two of them. In the playoffs, Young has double-digit assists in seven of his 13 games, and he's been one away twice more with at least seven in every game.

The floor here is very high when Young is playing so much, so really, we just need his teammates to knock down a few shots.

I'll play the over here to -145, and if you prefer to play the double-double at better odds since he is a near-lock to get to 10 points too, you can consider that angle.

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Brook Lopez, Under 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (+102)

One way the Bucks may try to help themselves stop Young is by minimizing Brook Lopez.

Lopez is terrific at what he is, but he has a very specific skill set. He's a big, strong player who can body up on the glass, and he's an elite rim protector and outstanding in drop defense. That's really useful against some teams, and Lopez was absolutely vital in defense in Milwaukee's Game 7 win over the Nets-.

But other teams have the ability to attack and shred that drop defense, and that's what Young did in Game 1.

That Trae floater is absolutely deadly against the wrong drop defender, and Young was consistently dropping the shot over Lopez in Game 1. And it's not like the solution is just to drop a little less. Lopez isn't Young's main defender, and the moment he leaves his man to swat Young's floater, Trae will just float one even higher for Collins or Capela to slam home unguarded.

Lopez struggled in Game 1, and the Bucks moved away from him late. He played 12 minutes in the first half, a bit below his usual amount. He started the second half but got pulled with four minutes left in the third quarter and never re-entered the game, as the Bucks instead went with Giannis at center and him and P.J. Tucker as more versatile and agile big men. Y

oung was only 1-of-7 on second-half floaters, and it's reasonable to expect the Bucks to try more of the same in Game 2 in an attempt to slow down Young.

This, then, is just an overall fade of Brook Lopez. We've played plenty of Lopez overs this season, but tonight I'm grabbing the highest combo line available and taking the under. Lopez played only 20.2 minutes in Game 1 and had just nine points + rebounds + assists because it's really hard to get any of those things watching from the bench.

We're projecting Lopez at 22.3 minutes tonight, still way down from his usual, so I'm all over this under at plus odds. There's a very good chance this prop isn't close.

Either Lopez is invisible again for an easy win, or maybe Mike Budenholzer sticks with him and he goes easily over. It's not fun betting on Bud to make the obvious adjustment, but I have to trust what I saw in Game 1.

Clint Capela, Over 1.5 Steals + Blocks (-140)

I had to check this line three times to make sure it wasn't 2.5.

Capela averaged 2.0 blocks per game in the regular season after all, along with 0.7 steals for a total of 2.7 stocks (steals + blocks) per game. And that was in only 30.1 minutes per game. Capela's minutes are way up now, and he neared his season-high in Game 1, so that can only boost those numbers further.

Capela has a tough task this series as he defends Antetokounmpo, but he's another player who could be helped by the absence of Lopez since that would leave Capela freer to chase blocks and wreak havoc as a defender.

Capela had a steal and a block in Game 1, hitting this over, and he's averaging 2.0 stocks in three games against the Bucks this season.

In the playoffs, Capela has gone over 1.5 stocks in eight of his 13 games, hitting this over 62% of the time. Those numbers were hurt by over half of those games coming in a brutal matchup against Philly in which Capela found himself matched up with Joel Embiid all series. He's over in 5-of-6 non-Philly playoff games.

Back in the regular season, Capela went over 1.5 stocks on blocks alone in 36-of-63 games, hitting the over with blocks alone 57% of the time. Add in the steals, and Capela went over the line 44 times, an impressive 70% hit rate. Over the entire regular season and playoffs, Capela is now over 1.5 stocks in 52-of-76 games, a 68% hit rate.

The numbers are in our favor here, and Capela is such a huge shot blocker that this over will be in play until the clock reads 0:00. Remember, you can block multiple shots in the same possession, so Capela could swat two shots and hit this over in any second of the game. Let's give him the chance.

This is our top play on the board today. We project Capela at 3.0 steals + blocks and give this prop a healthy 22% edge in our favor. I'll play the over to -160.