The five-game NBA late slate on Sunday is filled with potential blowouts. Three of the five games have double digit spreads, and the other two games are at least six points.
The two props I selected are in games that are projected to be decided by single digits. Both players are in a great spot due to injuries and matchup.
We'll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I'm playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Jaxson Hayes, Over 5.5 Rebounds (-130)
| Pelicans vs. Rockets | Pelicans -6.5 |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
At 27-40, the New Orleans Pelicans are still in the last playoff spot in the Western Conference. They have lost four straight games and need to win this game against the Rockets tonight. They are 6.5-point home favorites.
It is a little surprising the Pelicans are favored by this much as they will likely be playing without CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram, but that makes the Pelicans a great source of value in the prop market. Jaxson Hayes will continue to start alongside Jonas Valanciunas, which should match up well with the Rockets.
Hayes is coming off of 35 minutes in his last game against the Hornets and draws an even better matchup against the Rockets tonight. They rank last in Defensive Rating and second in pace, allowing 118 points pre game. They also really struggle on the glass where they rank 27th in Rebounding Percentage.
Hayes has admittedly struggled rebounding the ball lately as he has failed to reach six or more rebounds in three straight games. However, in his previous six games, he had six or more in five of those. That has suppressed the number and it should now have some value, even though he is playing alongside Valanciunas.
Both the Rockets and Pelicans rank in the bottom 10 of field goal percentage per game. There will be plenty of rebounding chances for Hayes, who is projected for 7.6 rebounds in our model tonight. That is a ton of value on this prop. Despite the a favorable line, I would stick with the 5.5 and not go to 6.5.
Devin Booker, Over 5.5 Assists (-155)
| Suns vs. Lakers | Suns -8.5 |
| Time | TV | 9 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
The Phoenix Suns continue to have the best record in the league at 53-14, despite losing two of their last four games. They have already clinched a playoff spot and are 7.5 games ahead of the Grizzlies for the No. 1 seed.
The Suns host the Lakers, who are in desperation mode and trying to cling onto one of the last few playoff spots. They are 8.5-point home favorites implied for 119.25 points. Devin Booker continues to thrive without Chris Paul in the lineup. He has been the leading scorer and facilitator for the Suns lately.
In five games without Paul this season, Booker is averaging 26 points and eight assists per game. The major increase in his production has been the assist numbers, which he has nearly doubled. Booker has had seven or more assists in five of his last six games. The one he missed he had five assists.
The Suns are not only without Paul, but sharp-shooter Cameron Johnson is also out. This is a primetime game on ESPN that should be competitive as long as James is playing. The Lakers rank fifth pace and points allowed this season, allowing 113.2 per game. Booker should have no problem in this matchup.
Taking Booker at 6.5 assists is also super intriguing. PointsBet has that line at +105 if you are interesting in taking that over the 5.5 line. I would certainly take the 6.5 assists at plus-money.
