There are two games on tonight's NBA Playoffs slate, but we're staying away from a tired Los Angeles Clippers team on the road. Furthermore, we're also not touching the Utah Jazz, who may or may not have Mike Conley in uniform.
Instead, let's turn to Philadelphia, where the visiting Atlanta Hawks look to take a shocking 2-0 lead over the 76ers. Philly badly needs a win tonight, lest it fall into the same 0-2 hole at home that the aforementioned Clippers faced in Round 1.
We should have a great prizefight on our hands. Let's expect the best from both teams and target three strong player prop bets from Hawks vs. Sixers. If you're feeling courageous, consider putting all three prop bets into a single-game parlay, too.
For those who are new to this article, we'll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I'm playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player prop picks.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Joel Embiid, over 9.5 rebounds (-117)
| Hawks vs. 76ers | 76ers -6 |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
| Best Book |
First thing's first: Joel Embiid is questionable. It's difficult for a player to grab rebounds if he don't play, so Embiid's injury status is an obvious concern.
However, it might not be as big a concern as you think.
If Embiid is a late scratch, you won't lose this bet; rather, you'll get a refund at any book worth its salt. And if he's healthy enough to start, then we have to assume that Embiid is going to get as many minutes as he can handle.
Remember: The big man was questionable in Game 1 too, but he ended up playing 38 minutes and putting up a big line:
Joel Embiid Stats: Hawks vs. 76ers, Game 1
If you want to stay away — worried that Embiid's minutes will be down, or that he might get hurt again mid-game (always a risk with Embiid) — then that's certainly a fair decision. But, you should know that his injury status is precisely what endows this bet with substantial value, so that's part of the play.
We're expecting Embiid to play and go a full 36.7 minutes, similarly to how he gave it a full go in Game 1. If indeed Embiid plays a normal workload, then his likelihood to accumulate double-digit rebounds is self-evident. Assuredly, you don't need me to report a billion statistics to inform that assertion.
Embiid gobbled up one rebound every 2.94 minutes on the court this season. Even at his lowest rebounding rate in four years, Embiid would only require approximately 28 minutes to go over this modest rebounding line. He had over 9.5 rebounds in 31 of his 51 regular season games, hitting the over 61% of the time.
But wait — isn't it a worry that Embiid has gone under 9.5 boards in every playoff game this year?
In a word: No.
Embiid went under 9.5 rebounds in each of his games vs. Washington for two easily justifiable reasons:
- He so thoroughly destroyed the Wizards that his minutes were reduced.
- He got hurt in one game.
Moreover, Embiid went under his rebounding total by just one-half board in Game 1 against Atlanta.
Remember how Embiid achieved over 9.5 boards in 61% of his regular season games? That counts all of his games — including the ones where he ended up playing few minutes due to an injury count or due to a 76ers blowout performance.
So, let's reevaluate his regular-season over rate with more precise context. When Embiid played at least 32 minutes, he went over 9.5 rebounds an impressive 21-of-27 times (78% rate).
We project Embiid at 12.2 rebounds, which grants this player prop bet a robust 18% edge in our favor. It's our top prop play on the board today; and, as long as injuries don't rob us, we should be in good position.
I'll play the over all the way to -150.
John Collins, over 0.5 assists (-115)
| Hawks vs. 76ers | 76ers -6 |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
| Best Book |
Trae Young has quickly become a wonderful villain, and he's stealing all the Atlanta headlines as a byproduct. But, the truth is that Young's Hawks have played so well because his supporting cast has been excellent. That includes Clint Capela in the middle, Bogdan Bogdanovic as the second handler, and John Collins as the streaking athletic lob threat.
Collins has been terrific this postseason. Well … most of this postseason. In Game 2 against the Knicks, Collins only played 14.6 minutes: He picked up two fouls in the game's opening minutes, stayed in foul trouble throughout the game, and never really got involved.
That lone outlier notwithstanding, Collins has averaged 32.7 minutes per game and has been an integral part of this team. Collins used to have a reputation as a defensive sieve, but he's played much better this year with Capela next to him to carry the defensive load. Capela's defensive support enables Collins to remain on the court for big minutes.
Collins' athleticism was on full display in Game 1. It is a deadly secondary weapon that complements Trae Young's ability to slice into the lane and break through opposing defenses. Collins' athleticism is also a weapon in transition, where he's an ever-present threat to post a highlight dunk. Nonetheless, he is also fully capable of dishing the rock and grabbing an assist.
We just need one assist for this prop bet to hit the over, and Collins had at least one assist in 46-of-63 regular season games. That's a whopping 73% hit rate on this over, which is probably the right line but certainly not the right juice.
Even better, Collins is now a perfect 4-for-4 hitting the over against Philadelphia. He had two, one, and one assist against Philly in the regular season, respectively; then, he logged two more assists in Game 1. That's 1.5 assists per game — triple this line — and we project him at 1.1 assists on Tuesday.
Philly plays aggressive defense, which leads to steals and turnovers. However, it can also leave the 76ers defense exposed at times, and that's where Collins can strike.
We only need one assist. Our Props Tool rates this bet as a 9 out of 10 at -115, and I'll play it to -150.
Bogdan Bogdanovic, over 4.5 rebounds (+106)
| Hawks vs. 76ers | 76ers -6 |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
| Best Book |
Collins isn't the only supporting cast member playing well for the Hawks. Bogdan Bogdanovic has been great — at times, spectacular — during Atlanta's postseason run.
Of course, none of this is new to anyone who's been watching the Hawks this season. Bogdanovic led Atlanta in Box Plus-Minus (BPM) this season, per Basketball Reference. He was on fire all season with 47/44/91 shooting percentage splits and an awesome 62% True Shooting Percentage (TS%).
Since moving into the Hawks starting lineup in early April, Bogdanovic has averaged 21.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 4.0 dimes in 34 minutes per game to close the regular season on 50/49/90 shooting. He had a 6.3 Box Plus-Minus (BPM) during that stretch — the sort of number that would put a player in the conversation for All-NBA over a full season.
Bogdanovic's blistering shooting numbers have cooled off dramatically during the playoffs, but he's been fantastic despite more pedestrian shooting. He has become an important second handler, which could be even more important in Game 2 if Philly sticks Ben Simmons on Trae Young in an attempt to take him out of the game early. That kind of defensive adjustment would place the spotlight on Bogdanovic, and the Serbian is ready.
He has played 35.7 minutes per game during these NBA Playoffs — way up from his 29.7 minutes per game average during the regular season. Bogdanovic has translated those additional postseason minutes into 15.5 points, 6.2 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game.
His scoring is down a bit, but only because the shots aren't falling. Furthermore, Bogdanovic's peripheral statistics have improved, and his rebounding has practically doubled from 3.6 rebounds per game during the regular season.
Bogdanovic has at least four rebounds in all six playoff games, and that floor makes me wonder why this line isn't higher. He had recorded six boards in four straight games before missing this over by one-half rebound in Game 1.
We project Bogdanovic for 4.9 rebounds and 36.3 minutes, but it's clear that his ceiling is far higher. Still, even if our projection may be nearer Bogdanovic's median expectation, it nonetheless suggests value on the over. Moreover, we're getting this line at plus-juice, so it's a worthwhile play.
I'll take the over at any plus-number or play to -110.
