With a 10-game NBA slate on the schedule tonight, we will target three player props that have a very high rating in our model. Each prop below is from a role player who won't draw a lot of attention in the prop market.
We'll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I'm playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those picks.
Let's dive in!
NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks
Mitchell Robinson, Over 13.5 PTS + REB (-125)
| Hawks vs. Knicks | Knicks -2 |
| Time | TV | 7:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
Winning all three of their home games this season, the New York Knicks will test their luck against Knicks nemesis Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks. The Knicks are two-point home favorites and this game has the highest total on the slate at 233 points. This is a great game to target for several player props.
Knicks center Mitchell Robinson is in a great matchup if he can just stay out of foul trouble. That is his biggest concern regarding this player prop. In the last two games, Robinson finished with five fouls and only played 20 minutes. They lost both games by double digits as they need him to play more minutes.
The Hawks rank 21st in points allowed in the paint this season, while Robinson is shooting 67.9% from the field. They also rank 24th in Defensive Rating (115.4), entering tonight's games and have a negative net rating. With such a high total, Robinson will have plenty of opportunities to reach this over prop.
Our model has Robinson projected for 19 points and rebounds in this matchup tonight. He is averaging 13.5 points and rebounds combined this season and the two games that he has gone over this prop line, Robinson played 30 and 37 minutes. Stay out of foul trouble and Robinson should easily get over this line.
Reggie Jackson, Over 7.5 REB + AST (+100)
| Clippers vs. Rockets | Clippers -6 |
| Time | TV | 8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
Playing a home-and-home series, the Los Angeles Clippers came back to beat the Houston Rockets at home last game 95-93 behind a big performance from Paul George. The Clippers will look to make it two wins in a row tonight as they are six-point road favorites with an implied total of 114 points.
With Kawhi Leonard and Robert Covington out of the lineup again for this game, there is more usage to go around for the Clippers role players. One of those players is Reggie Jackson who has taken double-digit field goal attempts in each of his last four games, while averaging 31 minutes per game.
Last season the Rockets ranked dead last in Defensive Rating and second in Pace. They are trending towards similar numbers this season as they have the worst Net Rating in the league. With such a young team, defense seems to be optional. Great spot to go back to Jackson in this matchup with the Rockets.
In the three games where Jackson has played 30 or more minutes, he has gotten over this 7.5 rebounds and assists prop line in each game. Our model has Jackson projected for 8.8 rebounds and assists in this matchup tonight. Getting this prop at even-money on DraftKings sportsbook feels like a steal.
