Tuesday features a great slate of games tonight in the NBA as we inch closer toward the All-Star break. And when there's a great slate of games, there's plenty of value on player props.
We'll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I'm playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Clint Capela, Over 12.5 Rebounds (-120)
| Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Atlanta Hawks | Cavaliers -1.5 |
| Time | TV | 7:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
The Atlanta Hawks will host one of the most surprising teams in the NBA this season in the Cleveland Cavaliers.
First, the Hawks will be without starting power forward John Collins in this game. As a result, I expect Capela to play at least 30 or more minutes tonight. In six games without Collins in the lineup this season, Capela is averaging 31 minutes per game.
Additionally, in those six games, Capela is averaging 14.2 points and 16 rebounds per game. Furthermore, Capela will have the task to try and neutralize the tall frontcourt of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. Over the last seven days, the Cavaliers are allowing an average of 16.4 rebounds to opposing centers, according to Hashtag Basketball.
Over the last five games, the Cavs rank 28th in defensive rebound percentage and opponent offensive rebound percentage and 20th in defensive rebounding, per NBA Advanced Stats.
In a prior matchup this season against the Cavaliers, Capela played 40 minutes and grabbed 23 rebounds for the Hawks. I expect him to have another big night rebounding the basketball.
Buddy Hield, Over 21.5 Points + Rebounds (-110)
| Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks | Bucks -12.5 |
| Time | TV | 8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
The Indiana Pacers will visit the defending NBA Champions tonight in the Milwaukee Bucks.
This is a game I believe Hield can find success in shooting the basketball. Over the last five games, the Bucks have allowed opposing teams to make close to 14 3-point shots per game to rank 23rd, per NBA Advanced Stats.
Additionally, in the two games he has played for Indiana, Hield is averaging 40 minutes per game. Furthermore, Hield has attempted a total of 36 shots in the two games, and 23 of those have come from beyond the arc.
In the last game against the Wolves, Hield went 1-of-13 from 3-point line. However, as I mentioned above, the Bucks are struggling to defend the perimeter.
Hield has also grabbed a total of 17 rebounds in the two games so far for the Pacers.
Lastly, over the last seven days, the Bucks are allowing opposing shooting guards to average 24.6 points and 4.3 3-point shots made, according to Hashtag Basketball.
The Pacers are also dealing with injuries in the backcourt. Malcolm Brogdon is questionable tonight, and Chris Duarte will sit out with a toe injury.
I like Hield to get back on track tonight shooting and rebounding the ball for the Pacers in a game with a total of 234.
Deandre Ayton, Over 9.5 Rebounds (+115)
| Los Angeles Clippers vs. Phoenix Suns | Suns -13 |
| Time | TV | 10 p.m. ET | TNT |
| Best Book | PointsBet |
The Phoenix Suns will welcome the Los Angeles Clippers tonight on their home floor. The Clippers are on the second leg of a back-to-back as they pulled off an upset victory last night over the Warriors.
Over the last five games, the Clippers are allowing opposing teams to grab 45.6 rebounds, which ranks slightly below average. Tonight, the Clippers will try to keep Ayton from cleaning up the glass.
In four of his last six games against the Clippers, Ayton has grabbed 10 or more rebounds. The Clippers are a bit thin in the frontcourt after trading Serge Ibaka to the Bucks. I believe this is an area in which Ayton can take advantage of tonight.
The Clippers are allowing opposing frontcourts to dominate the glass. Over the last seven days, opposing power forwards are averaging 15.3 rebounds while opposing centers grab 13.3 per game.
Lastly, in home games this season, Ayton is snagging close to 11 boards per contest. He's has gone over this projection in 11-of-18 home games this season.
Ayton should dominate the glass tonight with his size and versatility.
