It’s Sunday, and I’m ready to rebound from last night’s 0-3 outing. I didn’t get the memo to pound the under on props for Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals.
Unless you bet on Deandre Ayton (19 points with 20 rebounds and five blocks). The game was ugly, but much respect to the Suns for pulling out a close one to go up 3-1 in their series versus the Clippers.
The Eastern Conference Finals are a bit tighter, with Milwaukee traveling to Atlanta with the series tied up 1-1. The Bucks are coming off a big win in Game 2, but the Hawks’ underdog story remains alive and well.
For today’s props, I’m riding Jrue Holiday’s scoring surge and expecting Bobby Portis to make an impact off the bench for the Bucks. Lastly, a Trae Young rebound game is in order, so I’m betting on his 3-point market at 2.5.
For those who are new to this article, we'll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Let’s dive in.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Jrue Holiday Over 20.5 Points (-104)
| Bucks vs. Hawks | Hawks +4.5 |
| Time | TV | 8:30 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
Jrue Holiday is tearing it up on offense through the first two games of the Eastern Conference finals. He dropped 33 points in Game 1 and 22 points in Game 2. He’s been noticeably more aggressive on offense, and I’m expecting this trend to continue heading into Game 3.
He has increased his attempts by 2.5 shots per game while also hitting at a much higher rate. Holiday shot 36.1% in the previous series compared to 59% through the first two games against Hawks.
Atlanta’s focus is stopping Giannis Antetokounmpo, and rightfully so, but Holiday is benefiting from that approach. Holiday’s catch-and-shoot opportunities have risen from 12.9% in the first two rounds of the playoffs to 20.5% in the Conference finals.
He also hasn’t been gun shy from 3-point range in this series. Before the Conference finals, Holiday attempted an average of 5.5 3-pointers per game. He attempted 12 3-pointers in Game 1 then followed that up with another four in Game 2 and he hit at least three 3-pointers in both games. And he’s found a high level of comfortability, taking on the role of a scorer in this series.
Atlanta’s backcourt is a defensive liability. Young has to control so much on offense that something has to give on the other end. Not to mention, Bogdan Bogdanovic has been a shell of himself since injuring his knee. Holiday is exploiting mismatches on screen-and-rolls while also shooting with no regard.
The Hawks’ constant attention on Antetokounmpo has opened up more space for Holiday to operate. Holiday’s been more involved, as seen by his team-high 65 passes received per game through the first two games of the Conference Finals. Giannis is second on the team with an average of 48.5.
With an opportunity to go up 2-1 in the series, the Bucks will continue to feed Giannis and Jrue, given their success in the first two games. Holiday is feeling it as he’s eclipsed 20.5 points in three of his last four games.
We’re projecting Holiday to score 21.5 points on the road in Game 3, and I’m riding his hot hand as a scoring threat tonight.
Trae Young Over 2.5 3-Pointers (-152)
| Best Book | DraftKings |
The Bucks’ defensive adjustments in Game 2 noticeably stifled the three-year pro. Young had just 15 points, his lowest scoring output of the playoffs, and committed a whopping nine turnovers.
Milwaukee did a phenomenal job hedging high on his screen and rolls, rotating off defenders, closing out, and playing help defense. It was a masterful performance on how to shut down an offense.
Milwaukee baited Trae into the lane to collapse on him as soon as he got to the foul line extended area. He didn’t make the right reads, which forced some bad turnovers, but those adjustments can be made by looking at the tape.
While the Bucks played well, the Hawks have responded well after losses. Young has been one of the most exciting postseason players, and I think he’ll perform better in Game 3. His 3-point market is slightly juiced at -152, but given his willingness to pull it, I like him hitting the over on 2.5 tonight.
Trae’s been bombing at a high rate all playoffs. But in the two games against the Bucks, he’s averaging 10.5 3-point attempts per contest. With his line set at 2.5, he only needs to make 25% of his 3-point attempts to cash. That’s decent value considering the volume. Also, one could argue that his eight attempts from beyond the arc in Game 2 were an outlier considering he only played 28 minutes in a blowout.
He’s hoisting an average of 8.9 3-pointers per game in the playoffs and hitting an average of 2.8. He’s knocked down an average of 3.8 3-pointers at home over his last four games.
With another chance to play the hero (or villain based on perspective), Trae is the one I’m backing to keep the Hawks afloat. He’s confident, has the green light to pull up from anywhere, and we’re projecting Young to hit 2.9 3-pointers tonight. I’m taking the over in what should be a better outing from the young superstar-in-the-making.
Bobby Portis Over 11.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)
| Best Book | BetMGM |
Man, it’s come down to writing about Bobby Portis. Yikes.
In all seriousness, Portis has played consistently well against the Hawks all season. Portis totaled 28, 20, and 15 points + rebounds + assists in three games during the regular season.
In the first two games of the Conference finals, Portis totaled 20 PRA and 12 in Game 2. That’s five straight games of hitting the over on his current 11.5 combo market.
Portis is averaging 16.1 minutes per game in the playoffs. In those 16 minutes per contest, he’s averaging 7.4 points with 4.8 rebounds and 0.5 assists. Portis is very active when given the minutes, and his per-36 splits reflect that (16.5/10.7/1.1).
Unless there is an injury, Portis doesn’t see those kinds of minutes. But he has a nice string of performances on the road that’s worth noting. Per Fansure, Portis has exceeded 11.5 points + rebounds + assists in 13 of his last 14 games on the road. Over that span of 14 games, he’s averaged 20 points + rebounds + assists.
Portis is a valuable piece off the bench for the Bucks. Not every game will be a blowout that will allow him to see up to 18 minutes, but it’s clear that he’s an effective weapon in limited minutes. He typically subs in for Brook Lopez, and Lopez averages 21.6 minutes per game in this series — by far his lowest of the 2021 playoffs.
Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer held Portis to 14 minutes per game in the Conference semifinals and he didn’t sniff the floor in the final three games of that series. But, we’ve seen what Portis can do, as he was a fixture in the Bucks rotation in the opening round against Miami. He cashed in over 11.5 points + rebounds + assists in each of the four games in that series — and averaged 10.8 points with 5.3 rebounds.
With Portis proving capable within the two-game sample size of putting up 9.5 points with 5.5 rebounds, I’m taking the over on his 11.5 combo market. Lopez’s minutes are down, which should open up more opportunities for the backup center.
Our Action Labs projections have Portis accumulating 13.9 points + rebounds + assists in Game 3.
