Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from five of the slate’s 14 games:
- Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics: 7 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Detroit Pistons at Charlotte Hornets: 7 p.m. ET
- Miami Heat at Houston Rockets: 8 p.m. ET
- Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks: 8 p.m. ET
- Washington Wizards at Phoenix Suns: 9 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Celtics PG Marcus Smart
THE PICK: Over 4.5 assists (-134)
Smart has taken on a larger workload following the injury to Gordon Hayward. He’s averaged 34.9 minutes over his past eight games, resulting in an average of 5.8 assists per game. He’s handed out at least five assists in five of those contests, and he’s handed out four in two others. Smart is currently projected for 33.8 minutes, and he’s handed out at least five assists in seven of nine games where he’s played at least 32.5 minutes this season.
This prop just seems off given Smart’s current role for the Celtics. I like the over up to -150.
[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Hornets PF P.J. Washington
THE PICK: Under 8.5 points (-105)
This prop has been prominently featured in these write-ups recently, and I have no problem going back to the well tonight. Washington is just not seeing the same amount of playing time that he was early in the season, and his scoring results have suffered. He’s scored eight points or fewer in each of his past five games, which is not surprising since he’s played 23.5 minutes or fewer in four of those contests.
I wouldn’t expect a ton of positive regression for him today vs. the Pistons. Both of these teams are tied for 22nd in pace, so this figures to be one of the slower games of the day. The Hornets’ resulting implied team total of 105.5 is one of the lower marks on the slate.
I’m going to keep riding the under on Washington’s scoring prop until he gives me reason not to. I would play the under on 8.5 points up to -120.
[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Heat SG Kendrick Nunn
THE PICK: Over 4.5 assists (+125)
The Heat are expected to be without Jimmy Butler today, which would open the door for Nunn to handle a larger offensive workload. Nunn is more of a scorer than a playmaker — he’s averaged 16.9 points per game compared to just 3.3 assists — but he has operated as more of a distributor with Butler off the court. His assist rate increases from 18.8% to 22.2% in that situation.
Nunn is also in an excellent spot vs. the Rockets. They’ve played at the second-fastest pace this season, so this game should feature more possessions that the typical Heat game.
The combination of role, matchup, and odds makes this prop bet appealing. I like it at anything better than even money.
Bucks C Brook Lopez
THE PICK: Under 5.5 rebounds (-134)
Asking a starting center to grab at least six rebounds feels reasonable, but Lopez has fared to clear that bar pretty often. He’s logged five rebounds or fewer in three of his past four games, including a game where he played 30.1 minutes and somehow didn’t grab a single board.
In all fairness, Lopez probably could do a better job on the glass if not for Giannis Antetokounmpo gobbling up boards like I gobble up stuffing on Thanksgiving. Giannis is currently averaging 13.9 rebounds per game, which doesn’t leave much for the rest of the team.
Lopez could also see a few less minutes than usual today vs. the Hawks. The Bucks are currently favored by a whopping 14.5 points, so Lopez could spend the fourth quarter watching this game instead of playing in it.
There’s definitely enough here to make the under worth a wager, but I wouldn’t play it above -145.
[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Suns PF Dario Saric
THE PICK: Over 11.5 points (+105)
Saric is coming off 18 points in his last contest, and there are reasons for optimism with him today. For starters, he should continue to see a larger workload than usual with Aron Baynes out of the lineup. Saric played 33.0 minutes in his last contest, and his projected for a similar workload today.
He also owns an elite matchup vs. the Washington Wizards. They’ve been dreadful defensively this season, ranking dead last in defensive efficiency, and they’ve also played at the fifth-fastest pace. The Suns are currently implied for 123.75 points, which represents a massive increase compared to their season average (113.8).
It’s pretty reasonable to expect Saric to hit the over on his current scoring prop given the Suns’ implied team total. I like it up to -115.
