The Mavericks and the Thunder are slated to take each other on in a thrilling Western Conference semifinals matchup.
This pits two of the game's most exciting young stars against each other in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic, who both were MVP candidates this season. Add in Kyrie Irving, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, and this will be a must-watch series from start to finish.
The Thunder took the regular-season series, 3-1. However, Kyrie and Luka each missed two games, and in the one game Dallas was fully healthy, it crushed Oklahoma City, 146-111.
It's absolutely notable that Doncic looked to be a bit banged up and said his knee might not get better until he gets some rest, saying "maybe the summer."
He was still dominant in the first round, averaging 29.8 points, 8.8 rebounds and 9.5 assists, but the percentages are brutal — 40.5% from the floor and just 23.9% from 3-point range. That lack of efficiency is something you could get away with against a Clippers team without Kawhi Leonard, but it seems untenable against a rested and hungry OKC team.
From a stylistic standpoint, there are a few coverage questions I have.
It's borderline impossible to take both Luka and Kyrie away. However, decisions can be made regarding who's more important to limit.
Given Luka's knee, though, they may think about letting him get his in single coverage while taking away Irving. Considering the concerns regarding efficiency, it still leaves some of the series leader bets open for the taking.
In terms of Scoring Leader, if Doncic's knee is balky and the efficiency remains down, this is exploitable — especially with a player as strong as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the other side.
On the season, Luka averaged 33.9 points per game compared to 30.1 for SGA. Gilgeous-Alexander actually had more games scoring 30-plus than Luka, though. SGA had 51 compared to Luka's 50.
Doncic's averages are pulled up by the spikes in his scoring, and the 50-point game potential is tantalizing. That milestone is something SGA never reached this season.
However, this playoff stage is relatively new for SGA, and if he's a real MVP candidate like he's shown, we shouldn't think it's impossible for him to score 50 in a tightly contested playoff game.
Regardless, he may not even need to score that many points on any given night, but the high floor will keep us in it throughout the series. I will back SGA to be the scoring leader at +400 at bet365.
In the Rebounding Leader category, Doncic is the favorite. However, lower-body injuries will impact a player's ability to box out, jump, etc., and while Luka is favored to lead the series in rebounding, this is the one stat I think he may truly have difficulty contributing to given his health.
I also don't think Chet Holmgren has enough upside given his price of +200.
I will be grabbing a pair of Mavericks to lead in rebounds, though: Daniel Gafford (+1000, FanDuel) and Dereck Lively II (+3300, ESPN Bet).
This is almost a bet on one of them working out and not the other, but given the Thunder's relative lack of size, both are live here.
This season, Lively recorded games of two and 16 rebounds against OKC, while Gafford tallied 15, nine and nine. Gafford's best game (15) came in Lively's worst (two), but that was also a game without Doncic. Luka's absence is notable because Lively plays significantly better alongside Luka than without him and averaged 7.0 RPG with Luka compared to 5.8 without him.
The concern with Gafford is that the Thunder can effectively space him out with Holmgren. Gafford isn't a nimble perimeter defender, and while Lively isn't great either, he would be a bit better suited for that role given that Maxi Kleber is out for the rest of the season with an injury.
I like splitting between these two because they should get the bulk of the minutes for the Mavericks at the 5, and no one in this series is a truly dominant rebounding threat.
Gafford and Lively each have a rebounding prop set at 6.5 for Game 1, and they both could exceed that.
I think OKC is going to do all it can to stop Irving by sending extra help, which should improve the star's ability to assist his teammates.
Kyrie's assists prop is set at 4.5 for Game 1. That's a number he exceeded in 56% of games this season, doing so in all three games against the Thunder over the last two years. I'd play either 4.5 at the juiced number or 5.5 at a plus-money number.
The key to this series depends on what each side is willing to live with on the defensive end of the floor. While it may seem counterintuitive to say, "Let Luka beat you," that may be the path for the Thunder given his injury and efficiency questions.
One player who will be critical for the Thunder is Jalen Williams. If he can score consistently, that will take some of the pressure off SGA.
Spacing will also be incredibly important for OKC, and although Josh Giddey has been a bit better of late, this should be a series for players who can space the floor like Isaiah Joe and Cason Wallace.
Thunder vs. Mavericks Player Prop Bets
- Scoring Leader: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+400 · bet365 · 1 Unit)
- Rebounds Leader: Daniel Gafford (+1000 · FanDuel · 0.25 Units)
- Rebounds Leader: Dereck Lively (+3300 · ESPN Bet · 0.25 Units)
