NBA Player Prop Pick | Saturday, Jan. 27
NBA Rivals Week finishes Saturday with a triple-header on ABC, with the Knicks-Heat tipping off first. These teams met in last year's playoffs, and if any player struggles in this matchup – it’s Julius Randle.
Since the RJ Barrett trade, Julius Randle is averaging 25.3 points per game in his last 13 games. Still, this number is slightly inflated, considering he had a 39-point outburst versus a weak Washington Wizards defense.
Randle will now face a down-tempo, slow-paced matchup he’s historically struggled with. Over his last five meetings versus the Heat, Randle averages 16.4 points per game, failing to go over his prop in all five contests.
This spot does not align with his shot profile and play-type tendencies. Randle is at his best when he can get inside the paint, scoring 42% of his made baskets while collecting 10.1 points per game (35%) via free throws and in transition, but the Heat rank inside the top five in defensive ranking against these areas, per NBAstats.com.
He will also have to overcome a one-on-one challenge against Bam Adebayo (93rd percentile defensive estimated +/-) – and it won’t be easy. Being the lead defensive signaler, Adebayo’s physical toughness, paired with his versatile lateral quickness, is responsible for holding recent forwards Kristaps Porzingis, Jaren Jackson Jr., Paolo Banchero, and Alperen Sengun under 22 points in his assignments.
Pick: Julius Randle Under 23.5 Points (-125)
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