NBA Player Prop Picks Tonight for 76ers-Knicks & Lakers-Nuggets

NBA Player Prop Picks Tonight for 76ers-Knicks & Lakers-Nuggets article feature image
Credit:

Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images. Pictured: Austin Reaves.z

I'm back on NBA player prop picks for the playoffs. Tonight, I'm on assist unders for Isaiah Hartenstein and Austin Reaves for TNT's doubleheader of Game 2s.


NBA Player Prop Picks

Time (ET)Player Prop
7:30 p.m. ET
10 p.m. ET
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.


76ers vs. Knicks

Philadelphia 76ers Logo
Monday, April 22
7:30 p.m. ET
TNT
New York Knicks Logo
Header First Logo

Isaiah Hartenstein

Under 2.5 Assists (+102)

Header Trailing Logo

Hartenstein has cleared this in four straight games, but the last three times he cleared this in the regular season was mainly due to seeing more minutes than Mitchell Robinson and an unstainable spike in potential assist rate.

In Game 1 of this series against the 76ers, we saw Hartenstein's potential assist rate drop closer to where we'd normally expect it to be in the 11-12% range. However, his teammates managed to make their 3-point attempts on all of his potential assists.

Typically, Hartenstein will only see a 60-65% conversion rate on his potential assists, so he is much more likely to finish with exactly two assists based on his current underlying metrics and will continue to see fewer minutes than Robinson in this series.

I’m projecting him closer to -150 to stay under 2.5 assists (2.3).

Pick: Isaiah Hartenstein Under 2.5 Assists (+102)
What is QuickSlip?

QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Phone With the Action App Open
The must-have app for NBA bettors
The best NBA betting scoreboard
Free picks from proven pros
Live win probabilities for your bets

Lakers vs. Nuggets

Los Angeles Lakers Logo
Monday, April 22
10 p.m. ET
TNT
Denver Nuggets Logo
Header First Logo

Austin Reaves

Under 4.5 Assists (-105)

Header Trailing Logo

Reaves saw a concerning drop in potential assist rate in Game 1 and only 6% of his passes turned into potential assists. LeBron James was dominating in terms of potential assists for the Lakers, as we'd expect to be the case now that we're in the playoffs.

Reaves managed to convert on all three of his potential assists, but he can’t bank on his teammates converting on 100% of his potential assists going forward. That means now would be the time to invest in his under with his assist prop being way too high at 4.5. It’s already going to be an uphill battle for the Lakers to rack up assists against the Nuggets considering their team total is 10+ points lower than their season average points per game.

I'm projecting Reaves for closer to four assists with around a 63% chance he stays under 4.5.

Pick: Austin Reaves Under 4.5 Assists (-105)


About the Author
Sean is The Action Network's Director of Predictive Analytics. He was named the No. 1 fantasy football draft ranker of 2019 by FantasyPros, where he's also finished as the top in-season ranker in three of the past five seasons

Follow Sean Koerner @The_Oddsmaker on Twitter/X.

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.