We cashed both of our Saturday NBA props very easily on Kevin Porter Jr. and James Harden. Tyler Herro did not play, so that prop was a wash. Now let's see if we can keep the momentum rolling on Sunday's short NBA slate.
With so few games on the slate, I've highlighted my two favorite props to play. Since there are only two compared to our usual daily three, I made sure to add a little juice. As always, we'll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our projections to find edges — find the case for each bet and the books with the best odds as of writing.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Marcus Smart Over 11.5 Points (+100)
| Raptors vs. Celtics | Raptors -1 |
| Time | TV | 6 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
A few underperforming Eastern Conference teams go to battle with the spread projecting a one-point game.
The Celtics have lost their last two and are 5-6 on the road this season while the Raptors have lost eight of their last 11 and are a surprising 2-6 at home. With both teams already 20 games into the season, it's shocking neither is over .500.
Dennis Schroder and Robert Williams are out while Jaylen Brown is questionable. That means the Celtics will be missing two starters while another one isn't quite at full strength yet. Schroder being out will likely bring Grant Williams back into the starting lineup, but make sure to monitor the status on Brown — if he is out, this over for Smart looks that much better.
Jayson Tatum leads the Celtics with a 32.5% usage rate, while Brown and Schroder are directly behind. With both potentially out, it means more usage to go around for the Celtics starters. Smart is not a high-usage player, but he has averaged a 21.3% usage rate over his last two games.
Using our FantasyLabs On/Off tool, Smart is tied with Al Horford for the highest usage bump (+6.1%) with Schroder off the floor. Smart has also played the most minutes with Schroder off the floor with 219 this season. After complaining early in the season about not being very involved in the offense, now is the time for Smart to back up those words as he gets that extra usage bump. This is Schroder's first missed game all season.
Smart has back-to-back games with 14 field goal attempts while scoring 20 and 13 points. He is playing 34.8 minutes per game, which is second to Tatum on the Celtics. The heavy minutes and projected close game provides a lot of value on this even-money prop and I would bet this up to 12.5 points, though I would recommend getting in on this prop before the Brown news breaks.
It's time for Smart to prove his worth.
Saddiq Bey Over 2.5 3-Pointers (+125)
| Lakers vs. Pistons | Lakers -11 |
| Time | TV | 9:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
The obvious discussion of this game is the status of LeBron James. Will he play after getting into a scuffle with Isaiah Stewart the last time these two teams played? Both players were suspended for their actions. With all of the attention rightfully there, I'll focus mine on Saddiq Bey and his 3-pointers prop.
The Lakers are favored by 11 points as this total is currently at 215.5 points (check real-time NBA odds here). The Pistons are 4-15 this season, which is not good, but the Lakers can't blow anyone out. In their 10 wins this season, they have an average winning margin of only 5.8 points. And four of their 10 wins have gone into overtime. The Lakers have beaten a team by more than double digits only once.
My money would be on the Pistons keeping this close, which helps our over prop.
Bey leads the Pistons with 1.9 made 3-pointers per game. He's made three or more in five of his last eight games and has played the second-most minutes for the Pistons at 32.5 per game. He has a 21% usage rate, which isn't too bad from a mostly 3-point shooter.
Bey has attempted at least six 3-pointers in seven of his last eight games. That is quite a lot of attempts, giving Bey more opportunities to reach this over prop.
This matchup against the Lakers is one that opposing teams have thrived in. The Lakers are second in the league in Pace and 18th overall in Defensive Rating. They've allowed 114.5 points per game, the second-most in the league. As far as behind the arc, the Lakers have allowed 13.1 3-pointers made per game and 38 3-pointers attempted per game. Both of those totals rank as the ninth-highest mark in the league this season.
Our Action Player Prop tool has Bey projected for 2.9 made 3-pointers tonight. DraftKings is the place to go for this prop as it provides a ton of juice at +125. I can't see this prop moving much at all, but I would hammer it even more if this prop moved down to 1.5 made 3-pointers.
Based on the trends, the Pistons should keep this game close, which bodes well for Bey and this over prop.
