The best two words in sports: Game 7, and this Sunday we have the luxury of watching two of them. The first is the Knicks hosting the Pacers at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC, followed by the Nuggets hosting the Timberwolves at 8:00 p.m. ET on TNT.
Read below for my top two NBA player props for Sunday, May 19 featuring bets for Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Gordon in today's duo of series finales.
NBA Player Props: Sunday, May 19
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 3:30 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Pacers vs. Knicks Game 7 Player Props
The first of our two juiced assist player props features Andrew Nembhard over 4.5 assists. The second-year pro has been a steady contributor for the Pacers during their entire playoff run. In his last 10 playoff games, Nembhard is averaging 5.1 assists per game and recording at least four assists in each contest. He has also has captured at least five or more assists in three of his last four games, making his over prop one of the best player props on the board.
With Tyrese Haliburton being inconsistent in this series, Nembhard has needed to step up in the Pacers' backcourt. Nembhard is second on the team with 8.2 potential assists during the postseason behind Haliburton. His playing time has increased from 25 minutes during the regular season to 31.8 per game during the postseason. The extra playing time has ballooned his production. Nembhard is averaging more points, rebounds, and assists per game.
The Pacers are 3.5-point road underdogs, but this game does have a 208.5-point total, which is by far the highest between the two games today. The total for this matchup throughout the first six games has averaged 224.5 points. A big reason why is due to the Pacers' pace. They were second in the league in pace this season at 102.16 per game.
Our Player prop model has Nembhard projected for 5.4 assists in this winner-take-all matchup against the Knicks. Getting Nembhard's over 4.5 assists player prop on FanDuel at +124 is a massive value. He is going to start at shooting guard and is projected to play around 32 minutes with a 15% usage rate. Playing that many minutes, Nembhard will have more than enough opportunity to capture five or more assists once again in this spot tonight.
Pick: Andrew Nembhard Over 4.5 Assists (+124 | FanDuel)
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game 7 Player Props
The second juiced player prop is Nuggets' forward Aaron Gordon's over 4.5 assists. Very similar to Nembhard, Gordon has been doing a little bit of everything for this Nuggets' offense, including dishing out assists. He has averaged 4.7 assists per game against the Timberwolves in this series and has captured five or more assists in four of the six games, including two of their three homes games. This is a great matchup for Gordon to assert his dominance.
The defending champions are five-point home favorites looking to advance to the Western Conference Finals. The spread has not been a factor at all in this series. The winning team has an average point differential over 20 points and both teams have won on their opponents home floor in a big fashion. The experience should lift the Nuggets in this Game 7. Gordon is going to play as many minutes he can handle and be highly involved in the Nuggets' offense.
Everyone increases their production in the postseason and that includes Aaron Gordon. He is averaging a playoff-high in points, rebounds, and assists per game, while shooting 59.3% from the field and 40.7% from behind the arc. Gordon has had a few huge games for the Nuggets this postseason and has been consistent in the assist department.
Our prop model has Gordon projected for 5.3 assists, which is comfortably over his 4.5 assists prop line. He has a similar value to Nembhard, being +130 on DraftKings.
The Timberwolves led the league during the regular season with a 108.4 defensive rating and allowed 24.5 assists per game, which ranked third-best. Despite the difficult matchup, he still averaged 4.3 assists per game against the Timberwolves. This prop offers a ton of value.
Pick: Aaron Gordon Over 4.5 Assists (+130 | DraftKings)
