After a successful weekend of props, we dive into the new week ready to keep the momentum going. This slate is loaded with great point guard options, so that is who I focused on for Monday night.
Three point guard props to start off the week right!
We'll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I'm playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Coby White Over 2.5 Assists (-130)
| Heat vs. Bulls | Heat -4 |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
Tonight features a battle of the two best Eastern Conference teams: The Bulls and Heat. The Heat are four-point favorites as they've won both meetings against the Bulls this season and are playing at home (check real-time NBA odds here).
It is impossible to look at our player prop tool and not see Coby White. He has the best line on several of his props tonight, heavily leaning toward the over. This assists props feels way too low — our model has White projected for 4.1 assists, which also seems modest considering he has crushed this total lately with five or more assists in four of his last five games. And the one game he had only two assists, he was in major foul trouble and played only 20 minutes.
White is starting and playing heavy minutes recently with Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso still on the injured list and unable to play. The Bulls do have Zach LaVine back, which may limit the upside of White from a scoring perspective, but LaVine's return also gives White another weapon to drop dimes to. DeMar DeRozan is also playing at an absurd level recently — his career-high 28.3 points per game ranks fourth in the league and he's scored more than 30 points in 10 straight games.
There should be plenty of opportunities for White to get assists. I would take this up to at least 3.5 assists, if not higher.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 29.5 Points (-130)
| Thunder vs. Kings | Kings -5 |
| Time | 8 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | PointsBet |
Despite a victory in their most recent game, the Thunder still have a record of 19-41 that ranks second-to-last in the Western Conference. They are five-point home underdogs as they welcome in the new-look Kings into town.
The Thunder will be without Josh Giddey and potentially Lu Dort, which is why this prop for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is listed so high. In four games without Giddey this season, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 32.8 points on 24.5 field goal attempts per game. Those are exceptional numbers, but this prop is steep.
PointsBet has this prop listed much higher than any other site, which is why it is important to shop around for the best line. I would consider taking this down to 27.5 and still riding with the under. Gilgeous-Alexander averages 23.2 points per game this season while he is shooting a career-low 43.2% from the field and 27.5% from behind the arc. Our model has him projected for 22.4 points.
Since returning from the All-Star break, Gilgeous-Alexander has had two sensational games in which he has averaged 34 points per game while shooting 56.5% from the field. He has had 22 and 24 field goal attempts in those games. However, since the addition of Domantas Sabonis, Jeremy Lamb and Justin Holiday, the Kings have been a much better defensive team.
Gilgeous-Alexander has been awesome lately, but I am betting on regression back to the mean. No Giddey will provide more opportunity, but he still is shooting the ball extremely poorly this season and this prop is way too high.
Dejounte Murray Over 9.5 Assists (-120)
| Grizzlies vs. Spurs | Grizzlies -8.5 |
| Time | 8 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | BetMGM |
There are so many great point guard options on this slate, but two of the best will face off in Dejounte Murray and Ja Morant. The Spurs are heavy road underdogs, but Murray has been playing too good he is impossible to ignore.
This game features the second-highest total on the slate at 237.5 points as both teams rank in the top eight of Pace this season. The Grizzlies won their previous two meetings, but Murray only played in their most recent game. He had a triple-double with 16 points, 10 rebounds and 11 assists.
Triple-doubles has been where Murray sets himself apart from the rest of the guards. He has 12 triple-doubles this season, which is second to Nikola Jokic for most in the league. In Murray's first game back from the All-Star break, he added to that triple-double total with 31 points, 14 assists and 13 rebounds.
Similar to White, this assist prop for Murray feels way too low. He has had 10 or more assists in 11 of his last 14 games. Murray's average still sits at 9.4 on the season, which ranks third in the league. There are some books out there that have this at plus-money at 10.5 assists, but I prefer the 9.5 number instead.
This point guard battle is going to be electric tonight. If the Spurs have any chance at keeping this game close it will be on the back on Murray. The triple-double king is also +340 to triple-double tonight if that also interests you!
