This week is the conclusion of the In-Season Tournament and each team is set to have a relatively light week with only two games apiece. The League will turn its entire attention to the In-Season Tournament on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday, with the rest of the league playing on just Wednesday and Friday nights. Let's dive in.
NBA Player Props Betting Forecast
The In-Season Tournament – The Eastern Conference Teams
Schedule: Dec. 4: Celtics at Pacers | Dec. 5: Knicks vs. Bucks
We've never had anything like the In-Season Tournament in the NBA so it's difficult to determine exactly how much run coaches will give their players for a "regular season game" or if the coaches will run more complex offensive and defensive schemes. Ultimately, the closest comparison we have is the Playoffs or even the Play-In Tournament but even the Play-In feels as if it has higher stakes. While this may change as we watch the games, I do not believe the teams with true NBA Title aspirations will run anything out of the ordinary at first in terms of their scheme, but they may play their stars a couple more minutes now that we are in the knockout round.
The Celtics have a great initial matchup against the Indiana Pacers, a team the Celtics blew out earlier in the season. Any team that Indiana faces in the tournament will be in for a fast-paced matchup. I am targeting Jrue Holiday in Monday night's showdown. His defense will be needed to contend with Tyrese Haliburton and I expect his rebounding to be needed without Kristaps Porzingis. Holiday is a player who does not need to score in order to provide value, but his minutes will be instrumental for the Celtics. So far this season, Jrue has averaged 7.2 rebounds per game and in the three games he has played without Porzingis this season, he's recorded 10, 7, and 5 but those were slower-paced matchups against the Bulls and the 76ers. He has exceeded 6.5 rebounds in 59% of games and in just 25 minutes on 11/1 he secured 7 boards against the Pacers.
I expect Boston to go far in this tournament, and another player to watch is Jayson Tatum. It's tougher to compare to last season due to the Celtics' change in personnel, but Tatum was a Rebounds + Assists monster in the Playoffs last season. He averaged 15.8 per game and recorded 15+ in 75% of Playoff games. With the acquisitions of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis this number is much worse, he is only averaging 12.7 RA this season and over the last two regular seasons he is averaging just 13.3. I'm not as interested in his RA line against the Pacers but if they win and advance to Vegas for the Semi-Finals and Finals, I could definitely see Tatum getting some extended run.
I was a bit surprised to see Tyrese Haliburton's Assists line open at just 10.5 against the Celtics; however, he's dealing with a respiratory illness which may impact his conditioning and Boston has to be the worst matchup possible for him. With Jrue Holiday and Derrick White, the Celtics have two of the best perimeter defenders in the league to deploy in his direction to slow him down. Even though Haliburton is averaging 11.8 assists per game this year, this is his toughest test yet. The closest comparison is the Orlando Magic and they held Hali to just 12 points and 3 assists in what was by far his worst performance of the season. On the season, Boston has allowed just four point guards to tally double-digit assists against them and while Haliburton is arguably the best one they will face, it's a tall task.
Turning to the Bucks, they will continue to lean on Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard. The duo has been dynamic lately with Giannis averaging 30.9 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 6 assists to Dame's 27.7 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 8.7 assists over their last 10 games. They will need to lead Milwaukee to an In-Season Tournament Title if they want to advance. This matchup against the Knicks is a tough one. The Knicks slow down the Pace and force their opponents into their halfcourt sets and crash the boards hard with Mitchell Robinson leading the charge. In his last two games against the Knicks, Brook Lopez has seen a significant spike in his 3 point shooting with 4/10 and 3/9 games. That's a tougher spot for Mitchell Robinson to defend as he's often needed to patrol the paint, and Lopez's ability to stretch the floor is instrumental. I'd play over 1.5 3s against the Knicks on Tuesday.
On the other side of this matchup, Jalen Brunson is once again in a smash spot. Brunson absolutely torched the Bucks for 45 points on 17/30 shooting back on November 3rd. The Bucks have struggled immensely to defend the perimeter without Jrue Holiday and Brunson is exactly the type of guard to take it right into the heart of the Bucks' defense and continue attacking the weak points in their defense. Brunson's points prop is high at 25.5 but he now has logged 45 and 44 points in his last two games against the Bucks. Additionally, during the last postseason, Brunson averaged 27.8 points per game and exceeded this total in 6 of 11 games.
One other Knick to watch is Josh Hart. Hart's rebounding prop is one I have already bet – it is set at 5.5 against Milwaukee. Hart is a player that Coach Thibodeau trusts. He has seen an uptick in his minutes lately as well with Quentin Grimes struggling. He is averaging 7.4 rebounds per game this season and he has grabbed 9, 8, and 10 boards against the Bucks over the last two seasons. In the Playoffs? He secured 7.4 rebounds per game and it's skewed a bit due to two low minute games against Miami. When Hart played 25+ minutes during the Playoffs, he averaged a whopping 8.6 rebounds per game. The Bucks are ranked 18th in Rebound%, and Hart should take full advantage of this matchup. If the Knicks advance and play either the Pacers or the Celtics I love this play as well. He's averaged a combined 8.9 rebounds per game against the Pacers and the Celtics with three double-doubles in those matchups over the past two seasons.
The Best of the West
Schedule: Dec. 4: Pelicans at Kings | Dec. 5: Suns at Lakers
The Kings and Pelicans face off in a matchup that we've seen a couple times over the last few weeks. One player that will continue to find success is Jonas Valanciunas. Valanciunas' size is needed to contend with Domantas Sabonis and there's always a little added rivalry between these two who share the floor with the Lithuanian National Team. Valanciunas is averaging 14.8 points and 11.6 rebounds in these five head-to-head matchups since Sabonis joined the Kings. He has exceeded his Points + Rebounds line of 21.5 in four of five games to go along with four double-doubles. There is clear value here given the matchup and I'll be playing both of those props on Monday night.
Another key piece for the Pelicans is the return of Trey Murphy. In Murphy's debut, he drained four 3s on ten attempts which is an exciting development for the Pelicans. Murphy is a solid defender and provides exceptional perimeter shooting. Last season Murphy averaged 14.5 points per game while averaging 2.6 3s on 6.3 attempts (40.6%). That perimeter shooting would be invaluable for this Pelican's team who currently take the fifth-fewest 3s in the league, per Cleaning the Glass. Murphy's return likely cuts into Herb Jones', Jordan Hawkins', and Dyson Daniels' minutes moving forward.
Their opponent, the Kings, have been lead by the dominant force that is De'Aaron Fox. Fox is averaging an absurd 36 points per game in the In-Season Tournament and has cleared his 27.5 points line in 9 of 13 games (69%) this season overall. However, he has struggled in the head-to-head matchups against the Pelicans logging just 14 and 26 points in the two games this year. This is a game I would want to avoid Fox props. If the Kings advance to play the Lakers, I'd take his points prop in that game. He has averaged 30.7 ppg against the Lakers over the last two seasons.
The Phoenix Suns take on the Lakers in LA on Tuesday to round out the Semi-Finals and this matchup will pit Kevin Durant and Devin Booker against LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Booker has been transcendent this season. Booker is averaging 30.7 ppg in the In-Season Tournament to go along with Durant's 35.7 ppg. Both have thrived against the Lakers with KD averaging 36 ppg and Booker 29 ppg in this matchup over the last two seasons. When these two teams played previously in the IST, Durant dropped 38 points and Bradley Beal made an appearance with 24 points in what was a Lakers victory (without Booker). One other notable stat line was Jusuf Nurkic's who tallied 7 assists in that game. Both Booker and Durant should continue to thrive in this format.
LeBron always seems to step up in these kinds of games where the stakes are a bit higher. LeBron is averaging 25 points, 8 Rebounds, and 7.5 Assists in the IST. During the regular season, LeBron has averaged 27.2 points, 8.1 Rebounds, and 7.8 assists with the Lakers, in the Playoffs, he's seen relative consistency on that with averages of 25.9 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 7.8 assists. His rebounding line of 7.5 for this game is too low. When LeBron is aggressive it often means he is grabbing rebounds to kickstart a fast-break – last year in the Playoffs he exceeded this in 14 of 17 games and even this season he is over this in 11/20 games and both games against the Suns (8 and 11).
