The NBA is approaching that beautiful Christmas Day slate that awaits us next Monday. In the meantime, there are a few meaningful angles to attack from a props perspective.
Let's dive in.
NBA Player Props Betting Forecast
Ja Morant's Return to Memphis
Schedule: Dec. 19 at Pelicans | Dec. 21 vs. Pacers | Dec. 23 at Hawks
Ja Morant is expected to make his season debut on Tuesday night against the New Orleans Pelicans. That will be the Grizzlies' second game of a road back-to-back set and should give them a meaningful boost across the board. Before we dive into Morant, I expect Chet Holmgren to have a strong performance against the Grizzlies on Monday night – I like him to go over 2.5 blocks, a number he has cleared in 7 of his last 10 games, against a Memphis team that has been blocked at one of the highest rates in the league, per Props.Cash.
On the season, the Grizzlies have the 24th ranked Net Rating (-6.3) and the league's worst offense (106.5). However, it's not all bad for Memphis considering they have the 10th-best Defensive Rating (112.8), per Basketball Reference.
Ja Morant will provide instant offense for this Grizzlies team. Last season, Ja averaged 26.2 points, 8.1 assists, and 5.9 rebounds per game and he was the clear offensive engine for the team. While the metrics the last two seasons implied that the Grizzlies were fine without Morant when they were a combined 31-15 in games without him, they had one of the best backup point guards in the league in Tyus Jones. This season, the Grizzlies are an abysmal 6-18 without him and sit six losses out of the Play-In Tournament.
I expect Morant to hit the ground running – although he was suspended, he was able to practice with the team. The conditioning should be there and Memphis simply has no time to waste if they want to salvage this season. Last season, when Ja missed extended time he returned and played 23 minutes and scored 17 points with 5 assists against the Rockets. The season prior he played 28 and 26 minutes in his return to action scoring 16 and 21 points to go along with 8 and 9 assists respectively. I'd expect 25-30 minutes for Morant in his return.
One player that may be impacted by Morant's return is Desmond Bane who is operating with a career-high Usage of 29.9%. Bane is averaging 24.9 points, 5.2 assists, and 4.7 rebounds on 3.0 turnovers per game. Last year, when Bane played alongside Morant, he averaged 21.3 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.3 assists and just 1.8 turnovers per game. A big swing was in not only his efficiency, but he took more 3s. Bane made 3.0 3s on 7.2 attempts per game with Morant. This season, he is already at 3.3 per game on 8.8 3s (37.9%). I would not be surprised to see Bane touch 10 3s per game alongside Morant but even if the attempts don't increase, I expect him to improve back to over 40% from 3 when he's being set up by Morant. In Morant's return, I'll look to target Bane's 3s and Morant's assists.
Reinforcements in South Beach
Schedule: Dec. 18. vs. Timberwolves | Dec. 20 at Magic | Dec. 22 vs. Hawks
Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo are both expected to return to Miami's lineup on Monday night against the Timberwolves. Miami does not play any back-to-backs this week or next week so as long as they are healthy, they should remain in the lineup.
Their return will immediately shake up the Miami rotation. Bam will immediately return to the Center position after missing 7 consecutive games – he should still see about 30 minutes although no formal minutes limit has been announced. On the season he has played 30 minutes in all but two games, one he played 29:59 and the other was when he was hurt again and he played just 12:28.
Tyler Herro has played just 8 games this season and has not seen the court since November 8th. Prior to his ankle injury, he had been dynamic. In the seven full games he played, Herro was averaging 25.3 points, 5.0 assists, 5.6 rebounds, 1.4 steals, and 2.9 turnovers while making 3.6 of 8.7 3s in 37.7 minutes per game. It's tough to imagine him not having some sort of minutes limit.
As for Herro, his reintroduction to the rotation will be interesting – Duncan Robinson, Jaime Jaquez, and Josh Richardson will all see a hit to their Usage, but it is tough to determine how much they will each be impacted. Over the last 10 games, here are the stats:
Jaime Jaquez: 31.9 Minutes, 17.1 Points, 3.5 Rebounds, 3.6 Assists
Duncan Robinson: 30.1 Minutes, 15.0 Points, 2.7 Rebounds, 3.6 Assists
Josh Richardson: 29.5 Minutes, 12.5 Points, 3.1 Rebounds, 3.5 Assists
Jaquez has a higher ceiling moving forward than either Robinson or Richardson, so I could see him playing well for Miami, especially as a scoring threat off of the bench. Richardson likely is the low man on the totem pole. He has a -11.8 Net Rating in his minutes and does not raise the offensive or defensive ceiling nearly enough.
Moving forward, the Wolves and the Magic are brutal matchups for Herro to return to; however, the Hawks, the Sixers, the Warriors, and the Jazz will be much softer matchups after that. Minnesota is elite defensively, and Orlando's defense is top notch as well. I'd likely look at Herro's 3s against the Magic though, they allow their opponents to shoot 37.7% from 3 point range which is the 23rd ranked 3 point defense in the league, per Cleaning the Glass.
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