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Prop bets can be a great way to get action on a game. Bookmakers don’t have to worry about taking a lot of action on them, so there isn’t as great an incentive to post a competitive line.
As a result, props can be some of the most exploitable bets on the board.
These props can become downright unfair when you combine them with the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool.
Wednesday’s best props focus on two of the slate’s late games:
- Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs: 8:30 p.m. ET
- Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors: 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
Let’s dive right in.
Grizzlies SF Kyle Anderson
The Pick: Over 6.5 points (-115)
This meeting between the Spurs and Grizzlies should be one of the lowest scoring games of the day. Both teams rank in the bottom five in pace and the total is around 200 points (see live betting data here).
Still, Anderson has played a ton of minutes recently and is currently projected for 32.5 minutes in our NBA Models, so 6.5 points feels like an easy bar for him to clear.
He has averaged just 6.9 points per 36 minutes this season, but is also shooting just 43.2% from the field. He shot 52.7% from the field last season, so he seems due for some scoring regression.
This is also a #RevengeGame for whatever that’s worth. I like the over here up to -135 but wouldn’t play it if it rose to seven.
Warriors SF Kevin Durant
The Pick: Under 31.5 points (-105)
The Warriors will be without Steph Curry again for tonight’s contest against the Thunder, which means that Durant will be asked to carry a larger workload against his former team. He’s seen a usage bump of +5.2% with Curry out of the lineup this season, resulting in an average of 21 field goal attempts per game.
So why do I like the under? Even though Durant may be getting a larger share of the offensive pie sans Curry, that pie has been a heck of a lot smaller. The Warriors offensive rating plummets with Steph off the court, and the Warriors have averaged just 95.6 points per game over their past three contests.
Durant has averaged 28.0 points per game with Curry out of the lineup this season and has gone under 31.5 points in three of his past four games. The Thunder represent a difficult matchup as well: They rank fourth in the league in defensive efficiency this season.
Betting the under on Durant’s ability to score the ball is definitely playing with fire, but I think this line is a bit too high. I’d still play the under up to -135 but wouldn’t touch it if it got below 31.5.
