The six NBA player props highlighted below are for the following two games:
- Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks: 8 p.m. ET on TNT
- Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers: 10:30 p.m. ET on TNT
As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 4:30 p.m. ET. View live odds here.
Pacers C Myles Turner
The Pick: Over 1.5 Blocks (-170)
Can the NBA's leader in blocks per game (2.9) get a pair against a Bucks team that's allowing the fourth-fewest blocks per game in the league to opposing centers (1.9)?
Probably.
Extremely probable, in fact: Turner has notched at least a pair of swats in a ridiculous 46-of-58 (79.3%) games, including two of three against Milwaukee. Turner is also averaging 30.1 minutes per game over the past four with Domantas Sabonis (ankle) out, roughly a 1.5-minute increase from his season average (28.4).
Even if we assume 2-of-3 rather than 79% is Turner's true probability here, this prop would still have value up to -200.
Pacers PF Thaddeus Young
The Pick: Over 1.5 Turnovers (-145)
Victor Oladipo's injury back in January opened up a few extra playmaking opportunities for Young, whose per-36 numbers see an increase of 0.7 assists and 0.3 turnovers with 'Dipo off the floor, according to our NBA On/Off tool.
Young has committed multiple turnovers in 12-of-18 (66.7%) games since 'Dipo went down on Jan. 23 — a trend likely to continue against a Bucks squad that Young has totaled two, two and four turnovers against in three matchups this season. Such is the life in a matchup in which you spend 71% of your possessions being guarded by the 6-foot-11, 242-pound unicorn otherwise known as the Greek Freak.
If multiple turnovers in two of every three games is the new norm for Thaddeus, this prop should also have value up to -200.
Blazers PF Al-Farouq Aminu
The Pick: Over 6.5 Rebounds (-125)
It's uncanny how many missed shots seem to find their way into Aminu's hands against the Thunder.
In three games against Oklahoma City this season, the ninth-year pro out of Wake Forest has rebounding totals of 15, 13, and nine — a hefty average of 12.3 per game.
A dozen boards is obviously an unrealistic expectation, especially with Moe Harkless finally beginning to emerge. But Aminu is still averaging 7.6 rebounds per game on the season, matching a career high.
Aminu has grabbed seven or more rebounds in 41-of-64 (64.0%) games this season, so this prop should have value up to -150 (60% implied probability).
Blazers SF Moe Harkless
The Picks: Over 9.5 Points (+105); Over 5.5 Rebounds (+120); Over 1.5 Assists (-120)
Harkless is finally healthy and has said he's in a better place mentally, and it shows.
In seven games since the All-Star break, Harkless is averaging 12.7 points, 7.0 rebounds and 2.7 assists in 27.9 minutes. Over that seven-game span, Harkless has gone over 1.5 assists six times, and over 9.5 points and 5.5 rebounds five times each.
The 25-year-old Queens native will come back to Earth eventually, but as Portland's best answer for defending Paul George, Harkless should get enough minutes to hit the over on these soft lines that haven't properly adjusted for his post-break rejuvenation.
